The NCAA Tournament's play-in games continue on Wednesday, with No. 11 seed Miami (OH) taking on No. 11 seed SMU. The Mustangs enter the contest as 6.5-point favorites, via PrizePicks Team Picks, while the RedHawks will aim to keep their historic 31-1 season alive.
Tip-off for Wednesday’s showdown is scheduled for 9:15 p.m. ET on truTV and will be played at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
Below, we’ll break down our Miami (OH) vs. SMU prediction and picks for Wednesday's game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Miami (OH) vs. SMU Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Miami (OH) was the only Division I program to go undefeated during the 2025-26 regular season. However, the RedHawks suffered a road bump in their opening game in the MAC Tournament as they fell at the hands of UMass, leading to an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament.
Meanwhile, SMU had an up-and-down performance throughout ACC play, ultimately finishing with a 20-13 (9-11) record. The Mustangs finished the regular season on a four-game losing streak and lost to Louisville in the second round of the ACC Tournament.
It marks just the third all-time meeting between Miami (OH) and SMU. The Mustangs won the first matchup, 83-69, in the 1984 NCAA Tournament and defeated the RedHawks, 66-55, in the 2003 Boilermaker Invitational.
Who will advance in the NCAA Tournament bracket and face No. 6 Tennessee in the first round on Friday?
Miami (OH) vs. SMU Spread, Over/Under
SMU enters Wednesday’s play-in matchup as a 6.5-point favorite, returning a 1.31x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Miami (OH) is an underdog with a 3.44x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: SMU Mustangs -6.5 (1.75x payout)
- Over/Under: 161.5 (1.92x payout)
- Game Winner Payout: Miami (OH) 3.44x | SMU 1.31x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Miami (OH) vs. SMU Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/18/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Miami (OH) vs. SMU prediction on the spread for Wednesday, March 18, on PrizePicks.
- SMU has an 8-12 against-the-spread record as a favorite, producing just a 40.0% cover rate this season.
- Miami (OH) is 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
- The RedHawks are the most efficient offensive team in the nation, shooting a Division I-best 52.4% from the field. Miami (OH) also ranks second in the country in PPG (90.7) behind Alabama (91.7).
- According to Bart Torvik, the Mustangs rank 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency (123.0).
- SMU finished second in the ACC for 3-point shooting (37.4%), behind only NC State (38.8%).
- Per KenPom, SMU has a net rating of +18.09, by far the highest of any team that Miami (OH) has faced this season. Before Wednesday’s contest, the highest KenPom rating that Miami (OH) faced belonged to Akron (+12.80), which was good for 64th in the country.
Miami (OH) vs. Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/18/26
Here are the three top Miami (OH) vs. SMU picks to target for Wednesday, March 18, on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by SMU G Boopie Miller, Miami (OH) G Peter Suder, and SMU G B.J. Edwards.
SMU G Boopie Miller vs. Miami (OH) Projection: 20.5 Points
- Miller averaged 19.2 PPG across his last 10 contests.
- The SMU leading scorer scored at least 21 points in four of his last five games.
- Miller is shooting a career-best 41.0% from deep this season. The senior guard is also knocking down 43.6% (17-of-39) of his shots from beyond the arc over his last five games.
- The Mustangs guard averaged 19.2 PPG this season, ranking fifth in the ACC.
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Miami (OH) G Peter Suder vs. SMU Projection: 23.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Suder has averaged a combined 23.7 points, rebounds, and assists per game in his last 10 appearances.
- The RedHawks guard registered at least 25 points, rebounds, and assists in two of his last six games.
- Suder is shooting 54.5% from beyond the arc in his last three games but has only topped 25 points, rebounds, and assists in one of those contests.
- SMU allows its opponents to shoot 33.9% on 3-pointers, ranking 12th in the ACC.
SMU G B.J. Edwards vs. Miami (OH) Projection: 9.5 Rebs + Asts
- Edwards averaged a combined 10.0 rebounds and assists across his last five games.
- The SMU senior guard tallied at least 10 rebounds and assists in five of his last seven contests.
- Edwards racked up 5.7 assists per game in 2025-26, ranking seventh in the ACC.
- According to Bart Torvik, the Mustangs guard registers 15.2 defensive rebounds per 100 possessions, ranking third on the team.
Make Miami (OH) vs. SMU Picks on PrizePicks
Miami (OH) and SMU were programs that were on the bubble for Selection Sunday, leading to today's play-in battle. Who will advance to the 64-team field of the NCAA Tournament?
You can make your Miami (Ohio) vs. SMU picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued NCAA Tournament predictions, picks, and news.
