Mercury vs. Fever Prediction, Spread, WNBA Picks – Wednesday, June 24

Following Monday’s head-to-head battle, the Phoenix Mercury (5-13) and the Indiana Fever (10-7) finish their two-game series on Wednesday, June 24, at 7:30 p.m. ET on USA Network. Indiana won Monday’s matchup with a 86-77 dub as 7.5-point favorites on the spread.

Wednesday brings similar projections on PrizePicks Team Picks, with the Fever tabbed as a 6.5-point favorite on the spread tonight. The Mercury were in the underdog role in eight of their last 10 games, compiling a 3-7 against the spread (ATS) record in the split.   

Will Phoenix find the recipe for success in Indiana? Let’s dive into our Mercury vs. Fever prediction and picks for Wednesday’s WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks. 

Make your Mercury vs. Fever picks on PrizePicks now!

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Mercury vs. Fever Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, June 24

Heading into Monday’s matchup, we expected the Mercury to slow the pace against a high-powered offense. The turnover battle and controlling the paint were potential advantages for Phoenix.

The Mercury held the Fever to 86 points and a 42.2% field goal percentage (FG%), compared to Indiana’s 92.1 points per game (first) and 46.0 FG% (fifth) on the season. Further, Phoenix won the points in the paint battle, 40-26, and tallied 13 turnovers while forcing 15. 

So how did the Mercury still lose by 9 points? Indiana cashed in 10 3-pointers compared to Phoenix’s 5. Plus, the Fever were a force on the glass and won the rebounding battle by +10, including 12 offensive rebounds. Indiana lived at the free throw line, taking 29 shots at the charity stripe.

Can Phoenix limit any of these categories and improve its performance in Wednesday’s rematch? We’ll look at that and more in our Mercury vs. Fever prediction below.

Mercury vs. Fever Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, June 24

Similar to Monday’s favored role at home, the Fever are 6.5-point favorites on the spread and have a 1.25x payout to win vs. the Mercury, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Mercury vs. Fever game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Indiana Fever -6.5 (1.66x payout)
• Over/Under: 176.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Mercury 3.7x | Fever 1.25x

Make your Mercury vs. Fever prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Mercury vs. Fever Injury Report for Wednesday, June 24

Let’s look at the full Mercury vs. Fever injury report for Wednesday’s matchup, via WNBA.com.

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

• G Monique Akoa Makani (hamstring): OUT
• G Sami Whitcomb (knee): OUT
• F Natasha Mack (foot): Questionable

Indiana Fever Injury Report

• G Caitlin Clark (back): Probable

Mercury vs. Fever Prediction on Over/Under – 6/24/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mercury vs. Fever prediction on the over/under for Wednesday, June 24’s game.

• Indiana ranks sixth and third in offensive and defensive rebounding rates, anchored by C Aliyah Boston’s team-high 8.6 rebounds per game (RPG).
• The rebounding battle is a clear advantage for the Fever, as Phoenix sits 13th and seventh in offensive and defensive rebounding percentages.
• Furthermore, the Mercury log only 7.8 made triples per game (11th), while Indiana converts 9.6 3-pointers per contest (fourth).
• Phoenix has the fourth-lowest personal fouls per play rate, holding opponents to 18.5 free throw attempts per game (second-most). Monday’s 29 attempted free throws from the Fever does not feel sustainable.
• With that said, fewer free throw attempts could lead to fewer points. Monday’s 163 combined total easily went under 178.5. 
• According to WNBA.com, Phoenix plays at the third-slowest pace. That impacted Indiana’s chances on Monday night, as it recorded 64 shots compared to 68.6 per game on the season (seventh-most).
• While the Fever drained 10 3-pointers on Monday, they shot only 29.4% from beyond the arc. Plus, they posted a measly 26 points in the paint — which is in line with the Mercury yielding only 34.6 per game (third-fewest).
• Indiana’s advantages on the glass, paired with a higher 3-point volume puts Phoenix’s ability to cover the spread in question. However, the Mercury’s pace and advantages helped fuel an under on Monday.

Lock in our Mercury vs. Fever prediction on PrizePicks before tip-off.

Mercury vs. Fever Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 6/24/26

Here are the top Mercury vs. Fever picks to target on Wednesday, June 24. Tonight’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include Alyssa Thomas and Monique Billings.

Mercury F Alyssa Thomas vs. Fever: 30 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• Alyssa Thomas is a stat-sheet-stuffer, logging 14.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 8.4 assists per game (29.2 combined). 
• She logged 19 points while shooting 66.7% on Monday, reaching 33 points, rebounds, and assists combined vs. the Fever.
• Mercury F Natasha Mack (foot) is questionable tonight, and Thomas’ totals 7.4 rebounds per game and sees her 22.3% usage rate elevate to 23.2% when Mack is off the court, per Straight Bettin.
• Furthermore, Phoenix’s do-it-all piece records 32.9 combined points, rebounds, and assists per game when Mack is off the floor. 
• Thomas lives around the rim with 0 3-point shots on the season, and the Fever’s defense gives up 43.3 paint points per game (second-most).

Add Alyssa Thomas to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Fever F Monique Billings vs. Mercury: 4.5 Rebounds

• Indiana dominated the glass on Monday night, and Monique Billings’ 14-rebound and 10-rebound performance certainly played a role. 
• Despite logging only 19.9 minutes per game on the season, Billings enjoyed an elevated role with 28 minutes in Monday’s matchup.
• Billings has reached 7 rebounds in three of the last five contests, averaging 5.8 boards per contest in the five-game split.
• She’s second on the Fever with a 10.2% offensive rebounding rate, and the Mercury are mediocre on the defensive glass with a 69.9% rebounding rate (seventh).
• Indiana should have the height advantage with 6’4” Billings and 6’5” Aliyah Boston in the frontcourt. That rebounding advantage could be further elevated if Natasha Mack, who leads the team with 8.3 RPG, is out for the Mercury.

Add Monique Billings to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Mercury vs. Fever Picks on PrizePicks

Phoenix looks to rebound from Monday’s loss in Indiana. However, the Mercury could be lacking a key piece in the frontcourt, magnifying their issues on the glass. Will the Fever enjoy another comfortable win tonight?

Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Mercury vs. Fever picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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