Memphis vs. Tulane Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Friday, October 16

Friday night lights aren’t just for high school, as the weekend is ushered in by an evening slate containing three significant matchups in the college world. Kicking things off is an American Conference clash between the Memphis Tigers and Tulane Green Wave at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Entering the bout on ESPN, the Tigers are listed as 6.5-point favorites and return a 1.35x payout on PrizePicks with a victory. In a tilt between programs on opposite ends of the American Conference standings, will it be the hosts pulling off an upset or the visitors continuing to roll?

Below, we'll break down our Memphis vs. Tulane prediction and picks for Friday’s college football game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Memphis vs. Tulane prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Memphis vs. Tulane Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, October 16

Memphis enters Friday’s game as a 6.5-point road favorite against Tulane, returning a 1.35x payout on PrizePicks if it wins outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Memphis vs. Tulane game on PrizePicks.

Make your Memphis vs. Tulane pick on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

After dropping from 11-2 in 2024 to 8-5 in 2025, head coach Ryan Silverfield departed for Arkansas and left Memphis to bring in the Charles Huff era. Huff came over from Southern Miss (and Marshall) to a team that lost a ton of talent during the offseason but landed QB Marcus Stokes from West Florida.

Stokes (1,535 yards, 16 TDs, 3 INTs) is joined by a new cast of characters at the skill positions, including RBs Manny Covey and Jaylin Carter (a Huff player) and TE Hunter Tipton. On the other side of the ball, mainstays like LB Mike Montgomery (36 tackles) and CB Chauncey Logan Jr. (21 tackles, 1 PBU) remain in the fold.  

The Tigers’ lone stumble thus far in 2026 was a 38-20 shortcoming on the road against Boise State. Since then, Stokes and Co. have ripped off three consecutive triumphs by a combined 100 points and roll into Friday night at the top of the American with a 5-1 overall and 2-0 conference record. UTSA (same records) is right on their heels, though. 

The 2025 campaign was another very strong one for Tulane, seeing it win 11 games and earn a spot in the College Football Playoff after emerging as the American Conference champion. Losing in the first round and bidding farewell to now-former HC Jon Sumrall (Florida) opened the door for an offseason of change, including HC Will Hall — another coach with Southern Miss ties — joining the ranks.

Contrary to what some originally expected, it was Kadin Semonza who won the QB battle against Keon Chriss-Gremillion. The former is a returning player who’s spent some time at Ball State and leads an offense that helped fuel a perfect 5-0 record in one-score games when Jake Retzlaff was under center a year ago. Similar to Memphis, Tulane has fresh faces elsewhere on offense. 

Defensively, safeties Jack Tchienchou (35 tackles) and Kevin Adams III (45 tackles) star for a group that added pieces like DL Ed Smith (South Alabama) from the outside. Tayler Polk’s unit is 62nd out of 138 FBS programs in per-game scoring allowed (22.6 PPG). 

The Green Wave have alternated losses and wins through five bouts. The last two games featured a 20-17 loss to Army and a 24-21 win over Southern Miss, although Semonza racked up all of 287 passing yards across the two. 

These sides met last November in a 38-32 win for Tulane, who covered as 3-point road underdogs. The away club has won each of the last three matchups; back-to-back went over the listed total. 

There aren’t many injuries to note in this one, especially with Tulane RB Jamauri McClure returning from a foot injury last weekend and racking up 25 yards on 5 carries.

Memphis vs. Tulane Prediction on Spread – 10/16/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Memphis vs. Tulane prediction on the spread for Friday, October 16’s game. 

• Memphis is 1-0 against the spread as a road favorite in 2026 and was 4-1 in such a scenario a year ago. Tulane is 2-3 ATS overall this year and is 4-4 this decade as a home underdog. 
• According to Game on Paper, Memphis is 25th nationally in adjusted EPA/play (0.19) to Tulane’s 118 ranking (-0.20). 
• The Tigers have fared infinitely better on the offensive end, racking up 505.6 yards per game and netting 0.550 points per play to Tulane’s respective marks of 333.4 and 0.298.
• Simply put, the Memphis defense is far more disruptive. It gathers a sack on 9.46% of dropbacks and an interception on 4.48%. Tulane has no INTs this season and owns a 4.62% sack clip.
• The edge on third downs goes squarely to Memphis, who converts at a 44.8% clip on offense and holds its foes to 28.6% on defense. Tulane checks in at 38.8% and 49.4%.
• The battle of discipline and taking care of the football could also go the Tigers’ way. They produce 2.0 takeaways each time out and are called for 0.04 penalties a play; the Green Wave average 0.2 takeaways per game and 0.05 penalties per play. 

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Memphis vs. Tulane Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/16/26

Here are the top Memphis vs. Tulane picks to target on Friday, October 16. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include RB Jaylin Carter and QB Kadin Semonza.

Memphis RB Jaylin Carter vs. Tulane: 86.5 Rush Yards

• Across six games, Carter is producing 7.2 yards per carry en route to a career-best 8 TDs on the ground and 701 total yards from scrimmage. 
• Carter rolls into this one having accumulated more total rushing EPA (29.32) than all but four qualified ball carriers. 
• Via Pro Football Focus, Carter is averaging an insane 4.08 yards after contact per tote and has already forced 17 missed tackles.
• According to College Football Data, Tulane records a stuff on just 14.2% of attempts and has a 10.6% havoc rate on defense. Those marks rank 129th and 135th. 

Add Jaylin Carter + Memphis to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Tulane QB Kadin Semonza vs. Memphis: 163.5 Pass Yards

• Since amassing 212 and 165 yards and against South Alabama and Kansas State, Semonza has thrown for just 129 and 158 in his last two outings.
• The veteran signal-caller is just 122nd out of 138 qualified passers in EPA/dropback at -0.16. His 5.24 yards/dropback isn’t much better at 119th. 
• Courtesy of Fourth Down Data, Memphis’ opponent-adjusted passing success rate (40.5%) and EPA/dropback (-0.130) both reside in the top 50 nationally.
• The Memphis defense is stout against the pass, slotting into the 82nd percentile in passing EPA/play and the 71st percentile in success rate. 

Add Kadin Semonza + Tulane to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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As the 2026 college football campaign approaches its midpoint, it’s been an impressive season for the Tigers but a tumultuous one for the Green Wave. Now gifted a prime Friday night opportunity to send a statement to the rest of the conference, which side comes out on top?

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Memphis vs. Tulane picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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