Thursday’s college basketball schedule does not include high-major programs, but several mid-major matchups still hold plenty at stake tonight.
The American Athletic Conference (AAC) features a doubleheader on ESPN2, beginning with the Memphis Tigers (12-13) against the South Florida Bulls (18-8) at 7:00 p.m. ET. South Florida sits atop the AAC standings with a 10-3 conference record, and Memphis’ 7-5 AAC record is tied for fourth.
Let’s make a Memphis vs. South Florida prediction, followed by player picks to keep an eye on for PrizePicks.
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Memphis vs. South Florida Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Memphis dominated the last 10 head-to-head clashes, sporting an 8-2 record. However, the two sides are knotted at 5-5 against the spread (ATS) in the split. The under has hit in three consecutive matchups.
These programs bring contrasting over/under trends, as the over is 5-1 in the Tigers’ last six while the under has hit in three consecutive Bulls matchups.
Memphis vs. South Florida Spread, Over/Under
Led by South Florida’s explosive offense and quick pace, tonight’s total is 161.5 on PrizePicks Team Picks.
As 8.5-point underdogs on PrizePicks Team Picks, can Memphis overcome the Bulls’ strong offense?
- Spread: South Florida Bulls -8.5
- Over/Under: 161.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Memphis 3.84x | South Florida 1.21x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Memphis vs. South Florida Prediction on Over/Under
Most of this matchup could focus on South Florida’s offense against Memphis’ defense. According to Bart Torvik, the Bulls rank 66th in adjusted offensive efficiency, while the Tigers are 37th in defensive efficiency.
USF totals 87.9 (PPG) points per game but shoots only 44.1% from the field. The Bulls’ production relies on a quick pace, ranking 20th in adjusted tempo and posting 65.5 field goals per game (99th percentile).
While the Tigers surrender a 48.0% effective field goal percentage (87th percentile), they rank 61st in adjusted tempo. Memphis records 60.8 field goal attempts per game and allows 58.4 shots per contest.
If the quick pace continues, this could be a high-scoring bout — especially given that South Florida surrenders 79.6 PPG.
Memphis vs. South Florida Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/19/26
Memphis G Sincere Parker and South Florida G Joseph Pinion could take advantage of favorable shot distributions for player projections on PrizePicks.
Memphis G Sincere Parker vs. South Florida Projection: 15.5 Points
- Midrange jumpshots are frowned upon in modern basketball, and Memphis is in the 23rd percentile for farther-2 shot distribution, meaning it touts one of the highest marks in college basketball. USF also allows midrange shots in bulk by ranking in the 79th percentile of farther-2 shots allowed.
- Parker is second on the Tigers with 12.0 PPG, and he’s totaled 23.0 PPG in the last four games.
- The senior guard shoots only 2.7 3-pointers per game, and his 161 2-point attempts are second on Memphis.
- After reaching at least 20 points in five of his last eight appearances, Parker could stay hot tonight with plenty of midrange jumpers available.
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South Florida G Joseph Pinion vs. Memphis Projection: 12.5 Points
- The Tigers have one of the worst 3-point defenses in the AAC, allowing 26.0 shots per game and a 44.6% shot distribution (12th percentile).
- USF is in the 75th percentile for triple shot distribution, and Pinion is second on the team with 8.4 3-point shots per game. His efficient 39.3% mark from deep leads the Bulls.
- The 6’5” guard has converted at least 3 shots from beyond the arc in five of his last six games.
- Pinion posted 15.3 PPG in his past nine games and averages 14.3 PPG on the season.
Make Memphis vs. South Florida Picks on PrizePicks
Memphis has strong defensive efficiency to potentially match South Florida’s offense, but the Tigers’ quick pace could lead to a track meet. Guards lead each team’s point production, providing an angle for college basketball player projections for Thursday night.
Make your Memphis vs. South Florida picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
