The NCAA Tournament's first round gets underway on Thursday with 16 games to be played over 12 hours. No. 12 seed McNeese looks for a first-round upset for the second straight year, playing No. 5 Vanderbilt in a South regional matchup in Oklahoma City.
The winner of this 3:15 p.m. ET outing on truTV meets the winner of Thursday’s No. 13 Troy vs. No. 4 Nebraska game.
Below, we’ll break down our McNeese Vanderbilt prediction and picks for Thursday's game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
New users on PrizePicks can start the 2026 NCAA Tournament with $50 in Lineups instantly after playing $5+ — win or lose! Just sign up with promo code PLAYBOOK and you’re good to go.
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McNeese vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Eyeballs are always on the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups, as a No. 12 seed has pulled off an upset in four of the last five NCAA Tournaments, including two in each of the last two years.
The McNeese State Cowboys return to the NCAA Tournament for the third straight year, having upset No. 5 Clemson last season. This year, they went 28-5, finishing second in the Southland before sweeping the conference tourney with a win over top-seeded Stephen F. Austin.
The Cowboys are in the tournament for the fifth time overall. They have their lone win last year over Clemson to go with a second-round loss to Purdue, as well as three first-round exits.
Vanderbilt started the season 16-0 before losing seven of its next 13 games. Wins over Mississippi State and rival Tennessee earned the Commodores the No. 5 seed in the SEC Tournament, where they shocked defending champion Florida in the semifinals. The run came to an end vs. Arkansas in the SEC Championship.
The Commodores are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017 and haven't won a game in the event since 2012. Dating back to their run to the Round of 16 in 2007, the Commodores are 1-8 in their last nine tourney contests.
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McNeese vs. Vanderbilt Spread, Over/Under
Vanderbilt enters Thursday’s NCAA Tournament first-round game as an 11.5-point favorite, returning a 1.14x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
McNeese is the big underdog, with a 5.55x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores -11.5 (1.88x payout)
- Over/Under: 150.5 (1.88 payout)
- Game Winner Payout: McNeese 5.55x | Vanderbilt 1.14x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
McNeese vs. Vanderbilt Prediction on Spread – 3/19/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your NCAA Tournament McNeese vs. Vanderbilt prediction on the spread for Thursday, March 19 on PrizePicks.
- McNeese is 13-18-1 against the spread. They've been a favorite in all but two games, failing to cover vs. Michigan and Santa Clara, two NCAA Tournament teams, as an underdog.
- Per KenPom, McNeese is rated 66th in the country overall and 12th among non-Power 6 schools. The Cowboys have an offensive rating of 114.3 (91st) and a defensive rating of 101.8 (49th).
- The Cowboys are led by their defense, which leads the country in average points off turnovers (22.3) and is second in steals with 10.4 per game.
- Vanderbilt is 18-16 ATS. The Commodores didn't cover as a favorite vs. Arkansas in the SEC Championship after doing so in their three previous games.
- The Commodores are 14-13 ATS as a favorite, fifth-best in the SEC. As a favorite of 10+ points, they're 5-7 ATS, including no covers in their last three games with a double-digit spread.
- Vanderbilt is rated 12th on KenPom, owning an offensive rating of 126.8 (seventh) and a defensive rating of 99.3 (31st).
- The Commodores score 86.4 PPG, 13th in the nation and sixth in the SEC, while the defense allows 75.2 points per game, fourth in the SEC.
- Per ESPN BPI, McNeese has a 19% chance of an outright upset, the second-highest of the No. 12 seeds.
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Make Your McNeese vs. Vanderbilt Prediction on PrizePicks
Can the McNeese State Cowboys knock off a power school for the second straight year, or will Vanderbilt ride the wave of an SEC Tournament upset of Florida to a deep run in the NCAA Tournament?
You can make your McNeese vs. Vanderbilt picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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