Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli French Open Prediction, Pick – Friday, June 5

A couple of weeks ago, we were expecting an Italian to advance to the French Open final, but instead of Jannik Sinner, we will see one of Matteo Arnaldi or Flavio Cobolli following this all-Italian semi.

This will be the first Grand Slam semifinal for both players. Who will punch their ticket to their first-ever major championship match?

Below, we’ll break down our Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli prediction, recent form, and pick for the French Open semifinal, including a PrizePicks pick. 

The match is the second men’s semifinal on Friday and is scheduled to begin around 1:00 p.m. ET. This year’s French Open is being covered on TNT, truTV, and HBO Max.

Make your French Open prediction on PrizePicks for Friday's semifinal matches now!

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Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli Prediction, Favorite for French Open Semifinals

Below are the payouts for who will win Friday’s Arnaldi vs. Cobolli match, via PrizePicks Team Picks. 

Matteo Arnaldi: 2.85x
Flavio Cobolli: 1.38x

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout means the result will return $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 35 states.

Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli Prediction for the French Open Semifinal — Friday, June 5

Match Winner Payouts: Arnaldi 2.85x | Cobolli 1.38x
Tournament Round: Semifinals
2026 Record Entering the French Open: Arnaldi 2-6 | Cobolli 18-12
Head-to-Head Record: 1-1
Scheduled Time: Not Before 1:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: TNT/HBO Max

Given the disparity in rankings between Matteo Arnaldi (world No. 104) and Flavio Cobolli (world No. 14), it isn’t surprising to see the latter as a fairly substantial favorite. However, Arnaldi’s low ranking is mostly due to a foot injury derailing the start of his campaign, as he’s a former top-30 player.

Cobolli entered the French Open coming off a solid clay campaign (9-5 record), highlighted by a runner-up appearance in Munich. Two of Cobolli’s three career ATP titles have come on this surface, too, whereas Arnaldi has yet to lift a tour-level trophy.

Arnaldi did come into the French Open with some much-needed momentum, though. After recovering from the aforementioned injury and making a coaching change, he would go on to win a clay Challenger event in April, perhaps giving the 25-year-old the spark he needed to make this Cinderella run to the semifinals.

However, the mileage is piling up for Arnaldi in Paris. Even with his last match being shortened due to his opponent retiring, his other four matches have all gone four or five sets, resulting in him logging a whopping 19 hours and 42 minutes of court time. In contrast, Cobolli has dropped only two sets, resulting in 13 hours and one minute on court.

The two Italians have split their head-to-head, but their most recent meeting was at last year’s French Open, a match Cobolli won in four sets. As the more accomplished and rested player, it looks like Cobolli could have the advantage on Friday.

Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Cobolli is pegged for a 63.1% win probability over Arnaldi.

Make your Arnaldi vs. Cobolli prediction on PrizePicks now!

Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli Pick for 2026 French Open Semifinal

Flavio Cobolli — 23 Fantasy Score

Cobolli has averaged 26.2 fantasy points at the French Open, logging 23, 26.5, 32.5, 26, and 23 points. Only two of his matches have gone four sets, and none have reached a deciding fifth set. 

While Cobolli might not reach double-digit aces on the slower French Open surface, he’s putting up strong numbers on serve in Paris, winning 77% of his first-serve points and 59% of his second-serve points. Perhaps Cobolli’s superstitious routines are working?

Arnaldi has also performed well in his service games, but not quite at the same level, winning 72% of his first-serve points and 55% of his second-serve points.

Clay has historically been the strongest surface for both Italians, though Cobolli has enjoyed more overall success. Cobolli owns a 60.7% career win rate on clay, while Arnaldi is at a more modest 52.9%. 

As noted, Arnaldi could be gassed going into this match after spending nearly 20 hours on court. That’s almost seven hours longer than Cobolli spent across his matches.

On PrizePicks, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost are +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.

Add Arnaldi or Cobolli to your PrizePicks Lineup for the French Open.

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Make Your French Open Predictions on PrizePicks

We’ve seen plenty of unexpected matches throughout this French Open, and this one is no exception. Which surprise semifinalist will we see in the men’s championship on Sunday?

Don’t wait until lock — make your French Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 35 states!

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily French Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.