The Miami Marlins (13-15) and Los Angeles Dodgers (19-9) will face off in the opener of their three-game series on Monday, April 27 at 10:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Marlins are in the back half of a six-game West Coast trip after dropping two of three to the San Francisco Giants, while the Dodgers are on the back end of a six-game homestand that started with two wins in three games vs. the Chicago Cubs over the weekend.
Below, we’ll break down our Marlins vs. Dodgers prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Marlins vs. Dodgers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, April 27
Last year, during this same week in April, the Dodgers swept the Marlins in L.A., outscoring them 34-15. These two teams meet again in Miami in September.
The Marlins send veteran SP Chris Paddack (3.66 xFIP across 5 starts) to the mound to face World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.54 xFIP).
Paddack has struggled this year, his first with the Marlins. After a terrible initial start in which he allowed 8 ER over 4 innings, he settled down with three solid outings before taking the loss last week vs. the St. Louis Cardinals (5 ER in 4.2 IP).
Other than one start with 4 BBs, his control has been good. He has a 2.25 BB/9 and 5.4 BB%, the lowest among Marlins starters, per FanGraphs.
The Marlins' offense has held its own so far, ranking seventh in the NL in wRC+ (102) and fifth in wOBA (.323) but has struggled with power (11th in the NL in ISO at .131).
Yamamoto picked up where he left off last fall, posting a quality start (6+ IP, 3 ER or fewer) in all five outings this season. His 5.60 K/BB ratio leads the NL and is the fourth-best in the major. He's holding opponents to a .205 BA, among the top 15 in the NL.
To no one’s surprise, the Dodgers lead the league in almost every offensive category, including the best wRC+ (166), wOBA (.363), BABIP (.322), and second-best ISO (.195)..
Marlins vs. Dodgers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, April 27
The Dodgers enter Monday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.31x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Marlins vs. Dodgers game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 (2.04x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Marlins 3.22x | Dodgers 1.31x
Play the Marlins vs. Dodgers winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Marlins vs. Dodgers Prediction on Over/Under – 4/27/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Marlins vs. Dodgers prediction on the over/under for Monday, April 27.
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- Not only do the Dodgers lead in most advanced offensive categories, but they also have the majors’ top batting average (.278) and most home runs (45) while averaging 5.69 runs per game.
- The Marlins' staff has a 10% BB%, fifth-worst in the NL.
- Miami has struggled in the power category, hitting only 20 HRs (26th) and owning a low home run to fly-ball ratio of 7.6% (17th).
- Even with all the big offensive numbers, the Dodgers have played more unders (15) than overs (13), primarily because of a pitching staff that's third in the majors with a 3.28 ERA and a BABIP of .327.
- The Marlins, however, are 17-9-2 to the over.
- With Yamamoto on the mound, the total scores of the five Dodgers games have been 10, 5, 5, 3, and 4, with the 10 being the first start. Four of the five starts have cleared the under with no sweat.
Marlins vs. Dodgers Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 4/27/26
Here are top Marlins vs. Dodgers picks to target on PrizePicks for Monday, April 27. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include C Liam Hicks and 3B Max Muncy.
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Marlins C Liam Hicks vs. Dodgers Projection: 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Marlins catcher Liam Hicks has been a steady force, recording at least a hit in 13 of his last 15 starts, including five multi-hit games.
- Hicks is producing a 139 wRC+ (second on the team), .379 wOBA (second), and .209 ISO (leads Marlins). His strikeout percentage of 6.2% is second-best in the majors.
- The Arkansas State product is in his second campaign in the big leagues and has already raised his batting average by 63 points.
- Hicks has never faced Yamamoto but in two games vs. the Dodgers last season, he had 3 hits in six ABs with a home run and 5 RBIs.
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Dodgers 3B Max Muncy vs. Marlins Projection: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Dodgers 3B Max Muncy has at least a hit in four straight games and in six of his last eight, totaling 11 hits, 8 runs, 3 HR, and 4 RBI over that span.
- The hard-hitting infielder is producing a 182 wRC+, .439 wOBA, and .333 ISO across his first 104 PAs in 2026.
- The Baylor man has a wRC+ of 315 over his last eight games, second-best in the majors behind RF Carlos Cortes on the Athletics.
- In his career vs. Paddack, Muncy has 4 hits in eight games, two of which are HRs. He also has 2 doubles and a 1.189 OPS in 18 plate appearances against the Marlins' righty.
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Can the Marlins open a three-game series with a win over the team with the second-best record in baseball, or will the defending champs continue their dominance over the NL?
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