A one-game Wednesday night college football slate is followed up by a trio of clashes on Thursday, including a matchup between Liberty and Kennesaw State at 7 p.m. ET. Ahead of the game on CBS Sports Network, the Flames are favored by 9.5 points on PrizePicks.
With the season racing through the month of October, the Conference USA standings see the Flames competing at the top with Jax State and the Owls on the opposite end alongside the likes of Sam Houston. Will this be business as usual for Liberty, or could Kennesaw State turn it into a trap game?
Below, we'll break down our Liberty vs. Kennesaw State prediction and picks for Thursday’s college football game, including the spread, over/under, and winner on PrizePicks.
Make your Liberty vs. Kennesaw State prediction on PrizePicks now.
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Liberty vs. Kennesaw State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, October 22
Liberty enters Thursday’s game as a 9.5-point road favorite against Kennesaw State, returning a 1.23x payout on PrizePicks if it wins outright.
Here are the full payouts for the Liberty vs. Kennesaw State game on PrizePicks.
Make your Liberty vs. Kennesaw State pick on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
After bursting onto the scene with a 13-win season in his first year as head coach, Jamey Chadwell and Liberty saw their win total decline in the following two campaigns. 2025 was a rough one for the Flames, seeing them go just 4-8.
A simple lack of execution on the margins can be partially attributed to the record. Liberty went just 1-4 in one-score outings and had a -7 turnover differential, routinely cratering when it mattered most.
During the offseason, LU landed a new QB with Deshawn Purdie (PrizePicks projection 173.5 Pass Yards) coming over from Wake Forest. Elsewhere, with RB Evan Dickens moving on to Boston College (his third school in as many years), the conglomerate of halfbacks Kam Davis (7.1 yards per carry, 86.5 Rush Yards projection for Week 8), Peyton Jones (259 yards), Jaylon Coleman (238 yards), and Terron Kellman (115 yards) is getting the job done.
On the other side of the ball, Liberty surrenders just 15.3 PPG, 14th nationally. The Flames have been dominant since losing to James Madison 20-13, ripping off five consecutive wins and limiting foes to 17 or fewer points in four straight contests.
Kennesaw State’s 2025, in many ways, was the opposite of Liberty’s. HC Jerry Mack’s crew went 8-4 and thrived in one-score games but had underwhelming underlying numbers. A QB change was in the cards for the Owls, too, as Rickie Collins (PrizePicks projection of 213.5 Pass Yards) came over from Syracuse and was joined by RB Latrelle Murrell (West Georgia), WR Brayden Bunroe (Northern Colorado), and others.
Defensively, players like DL Kai Russell (Wingate) and CB Luke Evans (Miami OH) help lead Marc Mattioli’s unit as impact transfers.
Since throttling Murrell’s former Wolves crew 47-0 to open the season, Kennesaw State has lost five straight games. With that said, the last three defeats to Arkansas State, Jax State, and Missouri State, were by a combined 7 points. This team is only a laughingstock in record.
Thursday marks the third year in a row these squads will square off against one another. Kennesaw State claimed victories in both 2024 and 2025, covering the first time as a significant home underdog and the second as a road favorite.
On the injury front, starting Liberty safety Jeremiah Vessel is doubtful for Week 8’s bout.
Liberty vs. Kennesaw State Prediction on Spread – 10/22/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Liberty vs. Kennesaw State pick against the spread for Thursday, October 22’s game.
- Liberty is 4-2 against the spread this year, including 2-0 as a road favorite. Kennesaw State is also 4-2 ATS with a 1-0 ATS mark when playing the home underdog role.
- According to Game on Paper, Liberty is in an entirely different tier than Kennesaw State. The former ranks ninth in EPA per play (0.25) and fifth in success rate differential (+11.2%) to the latter’s marks of 99th (-0.11) and 106th (-4.7%).
- LU boasts an efficient passing attack and ground game, slotting into the 86th percentile for yards per dropback and the 85th percentile in rush EPA/play.
- Via Fourth and Short, the Flames are one of the best in the business when it comes to average starting field position (32.8 yards). The Owls are a bottom-20 team there (26.4).
- Although Kennesaw State can move the ball through the air, ranking in the 70th percentile in passing success rate, that’s where the Liberty defense thrives (95th percentile).
- Kennesaw State produces -0.15 opponent-adjusted EPA per drive, courtesy of Fourth Down Data. Liberty allows 0.33 on D, ranking 10th in the country.
- KSU might have some trouble making Purdie’s life difficult. Per College Football Data, the program sits tied for 115th out of 138 teams in havoc created (13.0%) on defense.
- The Flames convert on 50.82% of their third downs and allow opponents to convert on just 26.67% of theirs. The Owls’ respective figures are 37.93% and 46.03%.
Lock in your Liberty vs. Kennesaw State prediction on PrizePicks now.
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The stakes get higher for Liberty with each passing week, even as a struggling team awaits on Thursday night. Is this a spot for the Flames to continue rolling, or can the Owls finally stop the bleeding and get in the win column for the first time in conference play?
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Liberty vs. Kennesaw State picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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