Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Thursday, September 24

The Liberty Flames travel to Conway to take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers on Thursday, September 24, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, renewing one of the region's oldest rivalries.

Liberty has won two straight games after opening the season with a 20-13 loss to James Madison, while Coastal Carolina is 1-2 after falling 22-14 on the road against Delaware. PrizePicks lists Liberty as a 2.5-point favorite on the spread vs. Coastal Carolina.

Below, we’ll break down our Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina prediction and picks for Thursday’s CFB game in Week 4, including the spread for PrizePicks.

Make your Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina picks on PrizePicks now!

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Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, September 24

Liberty enters Thursday night riding high after its most impressive performance of the young season, dismantling Ball State 51-15 in Week 3.

The Flames totaled 460 yards in that victory, including 212 rushing yards and 248 passing yards. Liberty also scored on six of seven offensive drives during its dominant performance, giving the offense plenty of momentum heading into tonight.

QB Deshawn Purdie completed 13 of 20 passes for 211 yards and 3 TDs, bringing his season totals to a sparkling 563 passing yards, 5 TDs, and 0 INTs.

The Flames have done a great job of being efficient when they reach the red zone, converting 9 of 10 opportunities into scores. The defense has also excelled, allowing just 19.3 points per game while holding opponents to 285.3 total yards per contest.

Despite the poor 1-2 record, the Chanticleers have moved the ball effectively through the air. Coastal Carolina QB Deuce Bailey has thrown for 826 yards and 8 TDs without an INT through three games, averaging 275.3 passing yards per game.

Bailey has also shown an ability to generate explosive plays, with Coastal averaging 277.3 passing yards per game. WR Colton Hinton has been his most productive target with 196 yards and 3 TDs, while WR Clayton Coppock Jr. has added 161 yards and three scores of his own.

Liberty leads the all-time series 8-7, with the most recent meeting coming in the 2020 Cure Bowl, when the Flames defeated Coastal Carolina 37-34 in overtime.

Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, September 24

Liberty enters Thursday’s game as 2.5-point favorites against Coastal Carolina via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina Prediction on Spread – 9/24/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina prediction on the spread for Thursday, September 24.

• The Flames are averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 25th nationally, while Coastal is allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt, ranking 108th out of 138 FBS teams.
• The same matchup advantage exists on the ground, where Liberty is averaging 165.3 rushing yards per game, while Coastal's defense is allowing 162.7 rushing yards per game (22nd percentile).
• Liberty's red zone efficiency extends to the rest of the field, with the Flames averaging 6.0 yards per play (71st percentile) compared to 5.1 yards per play allowed (61st percentile) on defense.
• Coastal's offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play (72nd percentile), but its defense has allowed 5.7 yards per play (37th percentile).
• Coastal's biggest strength — its passing game — runs directly into Liberty's defensive strength. The Chanticleers are averaging 277.3 passing yards per game, but Liberty is allowing just 132.3 through the air, ranking 13th nationally.
• The Flames are allowing opponents to complete just 49.4% of their passes while averaging only 5.16 yards per attempt. This will be QB Deuce Bailey’s toughest challenge to date.
• Liberty has also been the better team on third downs on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the Flames are converting 46.3% of their third downs, compared to 40.0% for Coastal. 
• Defensively, Liberty is holding opponents to just 30.3% on third down, while Coastal is allowing opponents to convert 39.0%.
• The Chanticleers have lacked Liberty's red-zone efficiency, scoring on only 75% of their red-zone possessions, ranking 113th nationally. Liberty has scored on 90% of its red-zone trips and is allowing opponents to score on 77.8% of their opportunities.
• Liberty is 24th nationally in havoc rate, while Coastal ranks 70th. This could give the Flames the key sack or turnover they need to secure the victory.

Lock in your Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff!

Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/24/26

Here are the top Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday, September 24. Today’s CFB picks for PrizePicks include Deshawn Purdie and Deuce Bailey.

Liberty QB Deshawn Purdie vs. Coastal Carolina: 207.5 Pass Yards

• Purdie has thrown for just 563 yards through three starts, but he has cleared this projection in two of those starts — throwing for 230 yards against James Madison before posting 211 against Ball State. His lone miss came against Gardner-Webb, when he threw for just 122 yards.
• The efficiency has been excellent when Liberty has allowed him to push the ball downfield. Purdie averaged 10.6 yards per attempt vs. Ball State and 8.5 vs. James Madison.
• Coastal's pass defense is also a much softer matchup. The Chanticleers are allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt, while Purdie has averaged 8.8 yards per attempt through three games.
• The Chanticleers' defense ranks 109th nationally in EPA/pass (0.30), while the Liberty offense ranks 11th nationally in EPA/pass (0.48), according to Game on Paper.
• Liberty also has a legitimate explosive-play weapon in WR Makai Jackson. He is averaging 25.6 yards per reception and is capable of turning a handful of completions into significant yardage.
• If Liberty controls the game on the ground, volume becomes a concern. However, as only 2.5-point favorites, a neutral game script that doesn’t push teams away from passing in the second half could be ahead.

Add Deshawn Purdie to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Coastal Carolina QB Deuce Bailey vs. Liberty: 212.5 Pass Yards

• Bailey has been much more prolific than this projection suggests, throwing for 826 yards through three games while averaging 275.3 yards per game and 9.4 yards per attempt.
• He has cleared this projection in two of three games, including a massive 373-yard performance vs. West Virginia and 250 yards vs. Delaware. 
• His only miss came against Furman, when he finished with 203 yards in a 45-7 win where he wasn’t really required to throw the ball in the second half.
• The Flames are allowing just 132.3 passing yards per game, but this will be the best QB they have faced on the young season.
• Bailey also has the explosive weapons to attack Liberty vertically. WRs Colton Hinton and Clayton Coppock Jr. have combined for 357 yards and 6 TDs, giving Bailey multiple explosive options rather than relying on one target.
• Being a short underdog could work in his favor, as a second-half deficit would likely force more pass attempts if the Chanticleers are playing from behind.

Add Deuce Bailey to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina Picks on PrizePicks

College football Week 4 opens on Thursday night, with Liberty traveling to Conway to take on Coastal Carolina. Will Liberty's balanced offense and strong pass defense be enough to win on the road?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you're right.

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