One of international baseball’s fiercest rivalries takes center stage tonight in the Tokyo Dome when South Korea takes on Samurai Japan in World Baseball Classic Pool Play.
First pitch for Korea vs. Japan is at 5:00 a.m. ET on Saturday on FS1 in Pool B, following up wins for both teams in their first games of the 2026 WBC.
Let’s look at a Korea vs. Japan prediction and WBC picks for Saturday, March 7. Make your WBC picks for every game on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, run lines, and totals.
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Korea vs. Japan Prediction, Run Line, Over/Under
Korea enters this year’s WBC hoping to turn the tide on what has been a disappointing tournament for them in the last three go-arounds, failing to make it out of pool play.
Japan is the reigning WBC Champions after a thrilling win over Team USA in 2023, when Shohei Ohtani struck out then-current teammate Mike Trout to secure the 3-2 victory. Ohtani will not be pitching for Japan this time around and will strictly stick to hitting.
With his absence, as well as P Roki Sasaki opting to stay in Dodgers camp and P Yu Darvish out for this tournament, Japan’s pitching depth could be their weakness, although they still have a ton of top-end talent available.
Despite it being just the second game in the tournament, this is a hugely important game for both teams. They are both 1-0 in pool play, but with Australia out to a 2-0 start, the loser of this game will no longer be in complete control of their own destiny to advance in the tournament.
Our experts have Japan ranked as the second-best team in the tournament and Korea ranked seventh.
Korea vs. Japan Winner, Run Line, Over/Under
Japan enters Saturday's WBC matchup as 5.5-run favorites, returning a 1.05x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Korea is a sizable underdog vs. Japan, returning an 8.33x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your WBC picks in 35 states.
- Run Line: Japan -5.5
- Over/Under: 10.5 (1.75x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Korea 8.33x | Japan 1.05x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
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Korea vs. Japan Prediction on Over/Under for 2026 WBC
Here are the key stats and info to know before locking in your Korea vs. Japan prediction on the over/under for Saturday, March 7, on PrizePicks.
- Korea’s pitching has been their downfall in recent tournaments, none more so than in 2023, when they gave up eight runs in an upset loss to Australia, followed by 13 runs to this same Japan team.
- They do counter with a very talented batting lineup led by Giant’s Jung Hoo Lee and Dodger’s Hyeseong Kim, as well as fellow big leagues Shay Whitcomb and Jahmai Jones.
- The Koreans biggest concerns come in their bullpen, with weak depth behind starter Young Pyo Ko — that will come as no surprise to those who follow the unstable bullpens in the KBO (South Korea's top pro baseball league).
- Ko had a rough 2024 for the KT Wiz, but bounced back last year with a 3.30 ERA.
- Ko doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but generates a decent amount of ground balls with a 53.9% GB rate and has impressive command, averaging just 1.58 BB over his career.
- Japan will be rolling out last year's All-Star, Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi is a quality MLB starter, but he is not among Japan’s top-end pitchers, such as Yamamoto, Sasaki, Ohtani, or Darvish.
- Kikuchi does not generate many ground balls, with a 39.7% GB rate, and he can give up plenty of home runs, as he has a 16.1% career home run-to-fly ball ratio.
- Kikuchi surrendered three runs in the first inning in an exhibition start vs. the Orix Buffaloes (of the NPB — Japan's professional league) on Monday.
- Korea vs. Japan will take place at Tokyo Dome, which is often referred to as “dome run” due to the propensity for the ball to fly out of the stadium — not ideal for Kikuchi.
- The Tokyo Dome is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the NPB. It is just 328 feet down the lines and 400 feet to center field, indoor, pressurized, and air-conditioned, with fast artificial turf that can turn routine grounders into base hits.
Team Korea Preview vs. Japan
- Korea started 2026 WBC pool play with a dominant win over Czechia, though that roster was ranked dead last out of all 20 teams in this tournament by our experts.
- The Koreans have lost 10 straight games to Japan in baseball.
- Korea has two incredibly talented young sluggers in Do Yeong Kim and Hyun Min Ahn, both with MLB futures ahead of them
- Kim battled injuries last season, but was the KBO MVP in 2024 at just 21 years of age.
- Ahn, also just 22, broke out for the KT Wiz this year, slashing .334/.448/.547 with 22 home runs.
- After reaching the WBC semifinals in 2006 and losing in the title game to Japan in 2009, Korea has been eliminated in pool play in the last three tournaments.
- Korea has gone 2-1 in 2013 (failing to advance on run differential), 1-2 in 2017 with upset losses to Israel and the Netherlands, and 2-2 in 2023 after being upset by Australia in pool play.
- Former Dodger Hyun Jin Ryu hasn’t pitched for Korea since the 2009 WBC, but will now be headlining their pitching staff — that should give some insight into the state of their staff in general.
- They will also need former Texas Ranger Dane Dunning to help carry some of the pitching load for them, but with a 6.97 ERA in his last full MLB season, it could be tough sledding in the run prevention department for Korea.
Team Japan Preview vs. Korea
- Japan’s batting order is stacked from top to bottom, ranked second best in the tournament by our experts.
- The lineup is headlined by Shohei Ohtani and littered with major leaguers in Masataka Yoshida, Seiya Suzuki, and Munetaka Murakami.
- Samurai Japan also has dynamic hitting talent that plays in the NPB, like Kensuke Kondoh, who had a 178 wRC+ last year.
- Japan is 30-8 all-time in the WBC, with three titles and two semifinal-round losses.
- Team Japan features a record nine Major League players, along with 10 members from the previous championship-winning roster.
- Red Sox OF Masataka Yoshida drove in 13 runs in the team's 2023 WBC title run. But with Ohtani occupying the DH spot, he will have to play the outfield, where he is a subpar defender, being deployed there only seven times in his two seasons with Boston.
Make Korea vs. Japan World Baseball Classic Picks on PrizePicks
Can Japan continue its quest for a fourth WBC title with an early pool-play victory over bitter rival South Korea? Or will South Korea pull an upset and let the world know that this is a different product than what they have shown in the last three WBC’s?
You can make your Korea vs. Japan picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, run lines, and teams to win the WBC, now available in 34 states.
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