Kings vs. Pacers Prediction, NBA Picks: Zach Lavine Faces Benedict Mathurin

The Sacramento Kings and Indiana Pacers have combined for an 11-35 record, but both teams are coming off wins in their last trip to the court.

The Kings (6-17) snapped a four-game slide in Saturday’s 127-111 blowout of the Heat. Sactown wraps up a three-game road trip, seeking its fourth victory away from Golden 1 Center.

The defending Eastern Conference champion Pacers started the season at 2-16, but have picked things up, with wins in three of their past five games. 

Let’s look at the Kings vs. Pacers prediction and picks for Monday night’s battle at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Kings vs. Pacers Prediction, NBA Picks

Indiana is listed as a favorite for the first time in five games. The Pacers enter this matchup as 3.5-point favorites, returning a 1.56x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

The Kings are road underdogs with a 2.32x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

• Spread: Indiana Pacers -3.5
• Total: 233.5
• Game Winner Payout: Kings 2.32x | Pacers 1.56x

(Data via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Here are some stats to know to get you set for Kings vs. Pacers tonight, including insights on our Kings vs. Pacers prediction.

• Sacramento has won consecutive games just once here in '25, somehow beating Denver and Minnesota as double-digit underdogs in late November.
• In Saturday’s 16-point victory at Miami, the Kings led at halftime for the second consecutive game. No big deal, right? Well, Sacramento didn’t hold the halftime advantage in the previous 16 contests.
• Each of Sacramento’s first five victories came by five or fewer points. Saturday’s win was the first by double-digits since last season’s finale against the Suns.
• Former Pacer C Domantas Sabonis has missed the last nine games with a knee injury. The Kings big man remains sidelined, a problem as he's averaging 17.2 points and 12.3 rebounds per game.
• The other key player in the Sabonis trade to Sacramento in 2022 was G Tyrese Haliburton. He famously led the Pacers to the NBA Finals last season against Oklahoma City before tearing his Achilles tendon early in the Game 7 loss. 
• With Haliburton sidelined, F Pascal Siakam is leading the Pacers in scoring with a career-high 24.5 points per game. 
• Each of Indiana’s last two wins were against Chicago, including a 120-105 triumph at United Center last Friday. Siakam paced Indiana with 36 points, including hitting 5 shots from distance.
• Indiana captured both matchups with Sacramento last season. The Pacers edged the Kings at home, 111-109, marking the third time in the last four meetings in Indianapolis decided by fewer than three points.

Sacramento Kings

• Sacramento’s offensive rating sits at 111.8 on the road, compared to a 105.9 rating at Golden 1 Center.
• To be kind, the Kings are horrible on the defensive side. Sacramento is the only team to allow opponents to shoot 50% from the floor, last in the NBA.
• In spite of the defensive ineptitude, Sacramento has finished Under the total in nine of the last 11 contests.

Indiana Pacers 

• The Pacers rank 29th in the league in 3-point shooting at 32.9%. Last season, Indiana sat ninth in this category at 36.8%.
• Indiana has shot significantly better from the floor at home (45.7%) than on the road (40.9%).
• The Pacers have covered the point spread in seven of the past nine games. Head coach Rick Carlisle’s team is 1-2 ATS in three opportunities as a favorite.

Kings vs. Pacers Prediction, NBA Picks

Here are three top Kings vs. Pacers picks to target on Monday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by three players: Sacramento G Zach Lavine, Indiana G/F Benedict Mathurin, and Kings G/F DeMar DeRozan.

Kings G Zach Lavine vs. Pacers Projection: 21.5 Points

• Lavine is coming off his best game of the season, torching the Heat for 42 points in Saturday’s win. He knocked down 8 shots from 3-point range, marking his third 40+ game since last season.
• The former UCLA standout moved his scoring average up to 20.9 ppg and is posting 22.2 ppg on the road.
• Lavine compiled one of the best starts of his career, averaging 29.5 ppg in the first six games. Prior to the 42-point output, he was held to 15.5 ppg over a 14-game stretch.
• Since the start of November, the ex-Bull has racked up at least 25 points six times. In the following five games, Lavine scored 15 or fewer points four times.

Pacers G/F Benedict Mathurin vs. Kings Projection: 21.5 Points

• The sixth pick of the 2022 draft scored 62 points in the first two games before sustaining a foot injury that sidelined him for three weeks.
• Since his return, Mathurin is averaging 19.2 ppg, capped off by a 28-point effort in Saturday’s victory over the Bulls.
• The former Arizona Wildcat has been heating up from long distance, hitting 20-of-42 attempts the last six games. 
• In the first four games, Mathurin topped the 24-point mark each time. In the past eight contests, he has scored at least 22 points once, which came on Saturday.
• In his lone matchup against Sacramento last season, he was limited to 4 points in 30 minutes.

Kings G/F DeMar DeRozan vs. Pacers Projection: 22.5 Pts+Rebs

• DeRozan is the only King to start all 23 games, averaging 17.9 points and 3.0 rebounds per game.
• In four of the last five outings, the veteran has scored 16 or fewer points, including 13 points against the Heat on Saturday.
• The 2009 lottery pick has finished below this projection in six of the past nine contests.
• In seven of the previous nine road outings, DeRozan has been limited to 3 or fewer rebounds.
• DeRozan put together polar opposite performances against the Pacers last season. He was held to 2 points in a 27-point home loss, but scored 31 in a 2-point defeat at Indiana.

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The Kings and Pacers each look to build off solid performances in their last game as the teams hook up in Indianapolis tonight.

There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every NBA moment than with PrizePicks.

There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NBA board, so you can build your Lineup however you’d like — with no salary or positional restrictions. Just pick at least two player stat projections to build your Lineup on PrizePicks.

Check out the Playbook throughout the remainder of the NBA season for more analysis for your PrizePicks and NBA DFS Lineups.

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