Khamzat Chimaev puts his undefeated record and the UFC Middleweight title on the line vs. Sean Strickland at UFC 328 on Saturday night in Newark. Chimaev enters as a clear favorite: 1.19x to win and 1.96x to win by submission on PrizePicks.
Chimaev's elite grappling meets one of the best wrestling defenses in the sport — and something has to give.
Chimaev, an undefeated grappler representing the United Arab Emirates, has notoriously smashed his way through two UFC weight classes. We’ll see if Chimaev can stay perfect against a brash, defensively sound boxer in Sean Strickland.
The UFC 328 main event Chimaev vs. Strickland is expected to start around 11:30 p.m. EST on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.
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Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland Prediction, Preview for UFC 328 Main Event
Below are the payouts for who will win the Chimaev vs. Strickland fight at UFC 328 via PrizePicks Team Picks. 2x means that the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry
Khamzat Chimaev: 1.19x to win; 2x to win by submission (1.75x No)
Sean Strickland: 4.34x to win; 6.25x to win by KO/TKO/DQ (1.08x No)
Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.
Khamzat “The Wolf” Chimaev’s first middleweight title defense will come against a former divisional champion, and it’s one many might presume as the best candidate to defeat Chimaev — if anyone can.
The intersection of the “immovable object” that is Strickland’s world-renowned wrestling defense against the “unstoppable force” that is Chimaev’s takedown threat builds up to one of the year’s best individual skill matchups.
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Chimaev’s ability to close the distance is second to none in any weight class. He has the ability to shoot and secure takedowns from so far away that there is no “safe” range to strike. And once the Chechen fighter has your back… good luck.
At the same time, Strickland has yet to be controlled for more than 2:30 since returning from a motorcycle accident in 2020. He’s got all the answers in terms of reversing takedowns and getting back to his feet.
Dricus Du Plessis landed 6 takedowns in their 2024 fight, and just couldn’t keep him floored:
MMA can be a diverse sport, but Strickland doesn’t shoot takedowns, and it’s very unlikely Chimaev would realize success in a standup fight, losing the distance striking differential to Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman — both less accomplished strikers — prior to this one.
This dynamic should decide who wraps the belt around their waist this weekend.
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How Khamzat Chimaev Wins vs. Sean Strickland at UFC 328
The Wolf is no stranger to how to get his hand raised. Many didn’t believe he had a 25-minute marathon in his kit after finishing so many opponents in the first round, but Chimaev’s gas tank was just fine, despite racking up 12 takedowns and 21:40 in control time against Dricus Du Plessis to win the 185-pound belt a year ago.
Top control is where the champ’s bread is buttered. Chimaev’s grappling stats are insane considering he’s transitioned to a championship level of competition, posting 5.29 takedowns and 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes. His accuracy getting those takedowns (55%) has been elite, too.
An underrated key to this fight vs. Strickland for him will be managing his energy wisely.
For as brash as Strickland talks, his 0.30% knockdown rate is extremely low compared to the divisional average. Heck, Chimaev’s (0.64%) is higher. He can afford to spend time at a distance and keep gas in the tank; sprinting too soon out of anger to finish Strickland early could prove to be costly.
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How Sean Strickland Wins vs. Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328
Strickland’s irrational confidence in this fight comes from the fact that no man has been able to successfully hold him on hte mat for several rounds — and many have tried.
Considering Strickland's got such an extensive sample at distance, Strickland’s +1.47 striking success rate (SSR) is sparkling, and his patented “Philly shell” striking defense is one of the most responsible in the sport (60%).
Obviously, step one for Strickland will be what Burns and Usman accomplished. They provided enough wrestling resistance early to wear down Chimaev and force him into desperate, terrible attempts before, eventually, he resigned to winning a narrow battle at striking distance.
If this fight is taking place at striking distance sometime in Round 3, Strickland is going to be loving his chances. It’s how he just defeated Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez’s wrestling-heavy approach.
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Chimaev vs. Strickland Prediction for UFC 328 Middleweight Title Fight
Let's get into our final Chimaev vs. Strickland prediction and pick for the UFC 328 main event.
Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works
I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.
To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible.
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Model Results
The thing about a “no bull” analytical model is that it doesn’t care what a fighter looks like or what their resemblance in the cage might be. Khamzat Chimaev’s perceived chances of winning will always be pretty high in most people’s eyes, given the striking resemblance and undefeated records of Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev from a similar part of the world.
However, Chimaev has undoubtedly had hairy moments against Burns and Usman where his grappling wasn’t rolling downhill. That was at a lower weight class (170) than a larger, skilled fighter like Sean Strickland (185), too.
It’s hard not to favor Chimaev’s sparkling grappling stats, and my model does believe he wins 62.8% of the time. That comes by early finish 42.8% of the time, which is a little behind his 66.7% finish rate in the UFC.
Strickland’s zero pro losses by submission might have something to do with that.
Strickland's low rate of power doesn’t grade out well with chances to be the first to ever topple Chimaev via (T)KO. However, it does see his historical striking volume (6.04 significant strikes landed per minute), potentially giving him a path to victory on the cards when MMA scoring criteria favors striking over empty control time.
Chimaev vs. Strickland Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Make picks on UFC 328 stats like significant strikes, fight time, takedowns, and more on PrizePicks to win real money if you're right.
Khamzat Chimaev – 39.5 Significant Strikes
It can’t be overstated how underwhelming Dricus Du Plessis’ wrestling fundamentals were to create a boring fight where his jiu-jitsu was able to keep him safe from submissions.
Strickland has those fundamentals, ensuring we should see a more competitive fight if it’s prolonged.
An obvious risk to Chimaev’s striking totals will be his propensity to grab necks and “smesh” people early. He’s fallen short of this mark in six of his last seven fights.
However, my model’s result that this fight sees a full distance 48.9% of the time — with very little finishing probability weighted to Strickland. If this fight does extend past the first two rounds, that would help those totals.
Strickland’s own pace, attempting 14.38 significant strikes per minute, also means that Chimaev may have his own opportunities to land strikes at distance, even if the fight isn’t going his way.
I don’t usually take anything from pre-fight trash talk, but it also doesn’t hurt the argument for Chimaev’s striking totals if he chose to land a few more mean elbows or short shots from dominant positions than he did against Du Plessis.
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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland’s main event goes down this Saturday from Newark, New Jersey.
Before the UFC 328 main event gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the Chimaev vs. Strickland fight.
Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Chimaev vs. Strickland, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.
