Saturday brings a full lineup of college basketball, including seven SEC collisions. The conference lacks a top-25 clash, but a grudge match between the Kentucky Wildcats (14-7) and the No. 15 Arkansas Razorbacks (16-5) is bound to draw eyes.
After leading the Kentucky program for 15 seasons, Arkansas coach John Calipari will have his second meeting with his former team on Saturday. The Wildcats look vulnerable following a 25-point loss against Vanderbilt, while the Razorbacks are on a three-game winning streak.
Below, we’ll make a Kentucky vs. Arkansas prediction and circle picks for player projections on PrizePicks. Also, use PrizePicks Team Picks to make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders.
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Kentucky vs. Arkansas Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Cats hold a 6-4 record and 4-5-1 against-the-spread (ATS) mark over the last 10 matchups. With Calipari at the helm, Arkansas won its sole head-to-head against UK as 9-point underdogs last season.
Kentucky sports a troubling 3-7 ATS record in its last 10 games, and the Razorbacks have covered two of their last three matchups. The under is a recent trend, carrying a 3-1 record over Arkansas’ past four.
Kentucky vs. Arkansas Over/Under, Spread
Following a 25-point road loss, the Wildcats are notable 7.5-point underdogs against the Razorbacks, with a 3.22x payout to win on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Arkansas can add to its five-game home winning streak, holding a 1.31x payout to win on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks -7.5
- Over/Under: 162.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Kentucky 3.22x | Arkansas 1.31x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Kentucky vs. Arkansas Prediction on Spread
Bart Torvik suggests these teams aren't miles apart, ranking UK 44th in efficiency and Arkansas 26th.
The Cats may look to turn up their defensive intensity, as the Razorbacks rank fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency. Furthermore, Arkansas totals 89.3 points per game (98th percentile) and boasts a 56.8% effective field goal percentage (95th percentile).
One of the SEC’s best offenses frequently attacks the rim by ranking in the 99th percentile of dunks and 65th percentile of close 2-point shot distributions. Kentucky is in the 86th percentile of close 2s allowed, but it’s in the 17th percentile against dunks.
Furthermore, Kentucky PF/C Jayden Quaintance is shut down due to knee swelling. The Athletic ranks Quaintance sixth on the 2026 NBA Draft Big Board as the group’s top defensive prospect.
Slowing the game down could be the Wildcats’ best tactic for staying close, but Arkansas is in the 93rd percentile for the quickest paces. UK sits in the 56th percentile for tempo and 74th percentile for field goal attempts per game.
Kentucky has stumbled from 3-point land by shooting 33.9%, and the Razorbacks have a strong interior defense in the 78th percentile of close 2s ceded.
Kentucky vs. Arkansas Picks for PrizePicks Today: Saturday, January 31
Kentucky G Denzel Aberdeen and Arkansas F Trevon Brazile are a pair of players to watch for projections on PrizePicks entering Saturday's game.
Kentucky G Denzel Aberdeen vs. Arkansas Projection: 1.5 3-PT Made
- Over his last six games, Aberdeen posted 15.8 PPG, compared to 12.4 on the season.
- The Florida transfer is second on the team with 80 3-point attempts and totals 3.8 attempted triples per game. His per-game average is up to 4.8 shots from deep in the last four games.
- Arkansas allows 8.5 made treys (28th percentile), 27.0 attempts per game (10th percentile), and a 42.3% shot distribution from beyond the arc (26th percentile).
- After recording at least 2 made 3-pointers in five of his last six games, Aberdeen could do it again on Saturday.
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Arkansas F Trevon Brazile vs. Kentucky Projection: 10.5 Points
- Brazile totals only 1.2 made 3-balls per game, with most of his points coming from around the rim.
- With Kentucky in the 17th percentile of dunk distribution allowed and its best interior defender absent, the 6’10” forward could feast in the painted area.
- Brazile has logged 10.7 PPG over his last seven games, a potential indication of his ability for the weekend.
Make Kentucky vs. #15 Arkansas Picks on PrizePicks
Is Arkansas bound for another comfortable win against Kentucky? Brazile is one way to get exposure to this strong Razorbacks interior attack.
Make your Kentucky vs. Arkansas picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued College Basketball predictions, picks, and news.
