Jaguars vs. Bengals Prediction, Spread, NFL Week 4 Picks – Sunday, October 4

In a battle between two of the AFC's best, the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4. Despite coming off a Week 3 loss, the Bengals are 2.5-point favorites on the spread, via PrizePicks.

The Jaguars are coming off a dominant 35-6 win vs. the Patriots in Week 3, while the Bengals saw their record fall to 2-1 with a 30-27 loss in Pittsburgh. The loss was part of a difficult stretch that will see the Bengals play four of five games on the road. This Week 4 matchup with the Jaguars is their lone home game during that stretch.

Below, we’ll break down our Jaguars vs. Bengals prediction and picks for NFL Week 4, including the spread, over/under, and key PrizePicks player picks.

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Jaguars vs. Bengals Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 4 – Sunday, October 4

The Bengals enter Sunday’s game as a 2.5-point home favorite against the Jaguars, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Jaguars vs. Bengals game on PrizePicks — where you can make real money predictions on every NFL game! PrizePicks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.

Both teams' quarterbacks have performed well early in the season, which could open the door for some offensive fireworks on Sunday.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow has 6 TDs, completing 70.9% of his pass attempts so far. He's on pace to be the third time in Burrow's career he's completed at least 70% of his passes in a season. Burrow's key is to stay on the field, as injuries limited him to 10 or fewer games in two of the last three seasons.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has 7 pass TDs, completing 66.7% of his passes through three weeks, up from 60.9% last year. According to PFF, his average depth of target is 9.6 yards, on par with his 9.5-yard average last season, which ranked third in the NFL.

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Jaguars vs. Bengals Prediction on Over/Under – Sunday, October 4

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Jaguars vs. Bengals prediction on the over/under for Sunday, October 4. The over/under is set at 51.5, according to PrizePicks.

• According to RBSDM, the Jaguars are third in the NFL in dropback EPA/play allowed. The Bengals have also shown improvement in that department, ranking ninth.
• Neither team has been as good against the run, but they both rank inside the top half of the league in rush expected points added (EPA) per play allowed.
• After registering a disappointing 0.5 sacks with the Giants last season, Bengals DT already has 2.0 sacks, leading an improved Bengals’ defense.
• The Bengals' 4.7 yards per carry allowed isn’t exactly stellar, but it’s better than the 5.2 yards per carry that they permitted in 2025. They have also given up only 2 rushing TDs.
• Lawrence threw 8 INTs over eight home games last year, versus 4 INTs at home. That’s not a new trend. For his career, he has 37 INTs on the road and just 23 INTs at home.

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Jaguars vs. Bengals Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks in Week 4: 10/4/26

Here are top Jaguars vs. Bengals picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, October 4. Week 4 NFL picks for PrizePicks include Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase and Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers.

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Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase vs. Jaguars: 7 Receptions

• Per PFF, Ja'Marr Chase is eighth in routes run and 10th in targets among 84 qualified wide receivers.
• Behind Chase and WR Tee Higgins, the Bengals don’t have any other inspiring options at wide receiver. The position is now even more depleted with WR Colbie Young out for Week 4.
• When these two teams played in Cincinnati during Week 2 last year, Chase posted 14 receptions for 165 yards and 1 TD. He was targeted 16 times in the matchup.
• Last season, the superstar wide receiver averaged 13.9 targets at home. On the road, he averaged 9.3 targets.

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Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers vs. Bengals: 40.5 Receiving Yards

• Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers saw a season-high 8 targets against the Patriots, finishing with 7 receptions for 64 yards and 1 TD.
• Jaguars’ former first-round pick WR Brian Thomas Jr. continues to see his role dwindle, finishing Week 3 with only 1 target. He has 3 or fewer receptions in all three games.
• Meyers has yet to drop a pass this season. He has dropped 3 or fewer passes in all but one season of his career.
• Lawrence and Meyers have developed a good relationship, which may be contributing to Thomas’ declining role. Per PFF, Lawrence has a 156.3 passer rating when targeting Meyers this year. When he targets Thomas, his passer rating is 88.4.

Pick Jakobi Meyers + the Jaguars to win on PrizePicks now!

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Two playoff hopefuls in the AFC will face off Sunday with the Bengals hosting the Jaguars at 1 p.m. ET. Cincinnati’s improved defense could help limit the scoring in the matchup.

Chase could rack up receptions with his hefty target share, while Meyers could also exceed his modest receiving-yards total with Thomas fading in Jacksonville’s offense, as he's become a consistent receiver for Lawrence.

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Jaguars vs. Bengals picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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