Iowa State vs. #8 BYU Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Friday, October 9

The Big 12 has a packed race at the top of the conference in the first half of the 2026 season. The BYU Cougars, one of the conference and nation's top programs, will host the Iowa State Cyclones at 10:15 p.m. ET on Friday, October 9, on ESPN.

The Cougars are 10.5-point favorites and return a 1.2x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks.

BYU has raced out to a 4-0 start and is fresh off a 17-10 win against TCU. Meanwhile, Iowa State has a 3-2 mark, splitting its first two Big 12 contests, including a 45-42 win over West Virginia last week. 

Below, we’ll break down our Iowa State vs. BYU prediction and picks for Friday night's game, including the spread, over/under, and player projections for PrizePicks.

Make your Iowa State vs. BYU picks on PrizePicks now!

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Iowa State vs. BYU Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, October 9

BYU enters Friday’s game as a 10.5-point home favorite against Iowa State, returning a 1.2x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or $120 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Iowa State vs. BYU game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Iowa State vs. BYU prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

BYU is one of three teams with a 2-0 mark in the early going of conference play in the Big 12. This comes on the heels of head coach Kalani Sitake leading the Cougars to a 23-4 record over the past two seasons, including a pair of bowl appearances.

The Cougars have been paced by a stellar running game that averages 235.5 yards per contest (16th nationally). However, BYU is slated to be without star RB LJ Martin for the foreseeable future, as he's expected to miss four to six weeks with a lower-body injury per ESPN’s Pete Thamel.

Martin possesses elite speed out of the backfield, which will certainly be missed by the Cougars. Still, BYU has a talented stable of runners that can carry the load in his absence, including RB Journee Tonga (8.3 yards per carry), RB Preston Rex (5.2), and QB Bear Bachmeier (4.8).

Speaking of Bachmeier, the dual-threat signal-caller has never shied away from running with the football when the play breaks down. Bachmeier has 15 career rushing TDs and may see a few more running plays called for him with Martin on the shelf.

Both of ISU's came against ranked teams: #15 Utah and #21 Iowa. Iowa State's offense exploded in the win over West Virginia last week, getting it back on track.

Like the Cougars, the Cyclones rely heavily on their running game. Iowa State has averaged 197.4 rushing YPG and is led by RB Aiden Flora. Flora has paced the backfield with an eye-popping 8.1 YPC and even showed off his throwing ability with 2 passing TDs against the Mountaineers last week.

QB Jaylen Raynor's had an up-and-down start, completing 58.0% of his passes for 903 yards and 6 TDs but adding 4 INTs. Each INT came in his last three contests, including 2 INTs a week ago.

The Cyclones have struggled on defense, allowing 321.6 total yards per contest. 

BYU has been a spread darling recently, going 4-0 against it in 2026. The Cougars also covered by 2.5 points against Iowa State last year, winning 41-27.

Iowa State vs. BYU Prediction on Spread – 10/9/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Iowa State vs. BYU prediction on the spread for Friday, October 9, in this battle of Big 12 foes. 

• BYU is tied for the second-highest EPA/rush (0.26) in the country, via Game on Paper. While being without Martin isn’t ideal, the Cougars have rushed for 598 yards and 10 TDs (5.4 YPC) on non-Martin totes in 2026.
• Iowa State has struggled to defend the run at times, ceding 0.09 EPA/carry (95th nationally). In fact, the Cyclones have given up 149.2 rushing yards per game, the fourth most in the Big 12.
• Bachmeier is a strong passer with a stellar running ability, averaging 4.8 YPC and adding 4 rushing TDs this year.
• Bachmeier can also do damage through the air, evidenced by him completing 22 of 35 passes for 307 yards and 2 TDs in last year’s matchup against Iowa State.
• Iowa State has allowed 21.2 points per game in 2026, which is the fifth most among Big 12 teams.
• Defensively, the Cougars have excelled at getting after the QB. In fact, BYU owns a 17.0% havoc rate (34th nationally) and 8 sacks.

Lock in your Iowa State vs. BYU prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff.

Iowa State vs. BYU Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/9/26

Here are the top Iowa State vs. BYU picks to target on Friday, October 9. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include Bear Bachmeier and Aiden Flora.

BYU QB Bear Bachmeier vs. Iowa State: 204.5 Pass Yards

• Bachmeier has completed 64.0% of his passes for 704 yards and 6 TDs in four games. The BYU QB owns 205+ passing yards in two contests this year.
• The Cougars’ starting field general averages 7.24 yards per dropback — 49th among collegiate QBs.
• Bachmeier’s dual-threat ability has helped him avoid the pass rush; he’s been sacked only three times.
• The Iowa State defense surrenders 0.06 EPA per pass, good for just 69th in the country.

Add Bear Bachmeier + BYU to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Iowa State RB Aiden Flora vs. BYU: 64.5 Rush Yards

• Flora's carried the ball 73 times for 594 yards and 6 TDs in five games this season.
• The Cyclones’ standout RB owns a total of 18.85 EPA on the ground (12th) while also sitting 12th in yards per carry (8.32).
• Flora went for 65+ yards on three occasions entering Week 6, including rushing for 212 yards and 3 TDs against West Virginia.
• The BYU defense has been vulnerable against the ground attack occasionally, surrendering 0.00 EPA/rush (57th nationally). The Cougars did just allow TCU RB Jeremy Payne to rush for 77 yards on 5.5 YPC. 

Pick Aiden Flora + Iowa State to cover the spread on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make Iowa State vs. BYU Picks on PrizePicks

BYU is a juggernaut in the Big 12 and is off to a sensational start in 2026. Can the Cougars keep their winning ways against the Cyclones despite missing Martin? 

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Iowa State vs. BYU picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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