The opening game of Thursday’s Big 12 Tournament matchups pits the Iowa State Cyclones (26-6) against the Texas Tech Red Raiders (22-9). Tip-off is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
With both Iowa State and Texas Tech ranked 16th or better in the NCAA Net Rankings, neither program is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. Ahead of the third meeting between the Cyclones and Red Raiders this season, Iowa State enters Thursday’s bout as 4.5-point favorites.
Below, we’ll break down our Iowa State vs. Texas Tech prediction and picks for Thursday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and over/under predictions.
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Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Although Texas Tech has gone 2-3 in the last five head-to-head meetings against Iowa State, they did secure a nine-point victory over the Cyclones back on February 28.
At the same time, Iowa State squeaked out a one-point overtime win over Texas Tech in the first matchup of the season on January 11.
The Cyclones cruised to a 91-42 victory over the Arizona State Sun Devils in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament to advance to the quarterfinals on Wednesday, making them 6-4 outright and 5-5 against the spread (ATS) in the last 10 games.
While the Red Raiders have gone 6-4 outright and ATS in the last 10 contests, they had an automatic bid to the quarterfinals in the conference tourney as the No. 4 seed.
Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Spread, Over/Under
Iowa State enters Thursday’s game as a 4.5-point favorite, returning a 1.4x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Texas Tech is an underdog with a 2.85x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones -4.5
- Over/Under: 143.5
- Game Winner Payout: Iowa State 1.4x | Texas Tech 2.85x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Prediction on Spread – 3/12/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Iowa State vs. Texas Tech prediction on the spread for Thursday, March 12, on PrizePicks.
- When favored this college basketball season, Iowa State is 17-12-1 ATS.
- The Cyclones excel at generating takeaways, ranking fourth in defensive turnover rate (22.7%).
- As for the Red Raiders, they're 122nd in offensive turnover rate (15.9%) and 308th in defensive turnover rate (14.7%).
- Texas Tech may not get many easy points, as they rank 347th in offensive free throw rate (27.4%), while Iowa State is 32nd in free throw rate allowed (28.2%).
- Extra possessions could be created by the Cyclones in this contest, who are 38th in offensive rebound clip (35.4%).
- The Red Raiders are 169th when it comes to defensive rebounding (30.2%), so the battle on the boards could be crucial.
- Considering that Texas Tech ended the regular season with back-to-back losses, it’s worth mentioning they are 3-5 ATS coming off a defeat.
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Make #7 Iowa State vs. #16 Texas Tech Picks on PrizePicks
Iowa State and Texas Tech are both heading to the NCAA Tournament, but a win on Thursday could bolster their seeding.
You can make your Iowa State vs. Texas Tech picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news through the NCAA Tournament.
