The first spots in the NCAA Tournament national semifinals will be earned on Saturday, March 28, as No. 9 seed Iowa faces No. 3 Illinois in a South regional final in Houston.
The winner of this 6:10 p.m. ET contest on TBS and truTV advances to the national semifinals to meet the winner of Sunday’s Duke-UConn contest.
Below, we’ll break down our Iowa vs. Illinois prediction and picks for Saturday’s game. Make your NCAA Tournament picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Iowa vs. Illinois Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
After Iowa shocked the basketball universe in its 73-72 second-round NCAA Tournament win over Florida, it rallied to knock off conference rival Nebraska, earning a berth in the Round of 8 for the first time since 1987. The Hawkeyes have not been to the national semifinals since 1980.
Illinois upset No. 2 seed Houston on Thursday night to advance to the Round of 8 for the second time over the last three seasons. In their previous regional finals appearance, the Fighting Illini lost to eventual national champion UConn in 2024. The upset of Houston comes after defeating No. 11 VCU and No. 14 Penn in the first two rounds, which were both 20+ point wins.
They last made the national semifinals in 2005, losing to North Carolina in the national championship game.
The two Big Ten schools met early this season, with Illinois winning a 75-69 contest on the road in Iowa City. The Illini have won five consecutive matchups and 10 of the last 11 head-to-head bouts.
Iowa vs. Illinois Spread, Over/Under
Illinois enters Saturday's NCAA Tournament Round of 8 game as 7.5-point favorites, with a 1.31x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
Iowa is the underdog, with a 3.57x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Illinois -7.5 (2.04x payout)
- Over/Under: 138.5 (1.88x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Iowa 3.57x | Illinois 1.31x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Iowa vs. Illinois Prediction on Spread – 3/28/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your NCAA Tournament Iowa vs. Illinois college basketball prediction on the spread for Saturday, March 28, on PrizePicks.
- The Hawkeyes are 21-15 against the spread this season. The 58.3% cover rate is third-best in the Big Ten.
- Iowa has covered all three NCAA Tournament games after failing to cover its final three games before the postseason.
- The Illini are just ahead of the Hawkeyes in covering spreads, posting a 21-14 record (60.0%).
- As an underdog, Iowa is 6-5 against the spread, including outright wins as an underdog in all three games in the NCAA Tournament.
- Per KenPom, Iowa is rated 22nd in the country, with a 123.8 offensive rating (22nd) and a 99.9 defensive rating (30th).
- The Hawkeyes hold opponents to 66.1 points per game, tied with Nebraska for best in the conference and 18th in the country. The Illini score 84.2 PPG, second in the conference and 21st in the country.
- Illinois is 17-11 against the spread as a favorite, the best in the Big Ten. As a favorite of six or more points, it is 14-9 ATS.
- According to KenPom, Illinois is rated 13th in the country, with a 119.2 offensive rating (52nd) and a 92.0 defensive rating (sixth nationally; second in Big Ten).
Iowa vs. Illinois Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/28/26
Here are top Iowa vs. Illinois picks to target for Saturday, March 28, on PrizePicks. Today’s college basketball picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Iowa G Bennett Stirtz and Illinois G Keaton Wagler.
Iowa G Bennett Stirtz vs. Illinois Projection: 19.5 Points
- Iowa G Bennett Stirtz is averaging 19.7 points per game this season, second-best in the Big Ten and 36th among all Division I players.
- A game after going 0-9 from beyond the arc vs. Florida, Stirtz went 3-9 from 3 and scored a game-high 20 points.
- The senior played 2024-25 at Drake, averaging 19.2 points per game to lead the Missouri Valley Conference and earning MVC Larry Bird Player of the Year.
- In the earlier meeting vs. Illinois this season, Stirtz scored 12 points on 5-of-7 shooting (71.4%).
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Illinois G Keaton Wagler vs. Iowa Projection: 16.5 Points
- Illinois G Keaton Wagler leads the Illini with 17.7 PPG, which is 12th in the Big Ten.
- The freshman guard also tops the team with 4.3 assists per game, ranking 11th in the Big Ten.
- On January 24, Wagler recorded 46 points at Purdue, setting an Illinois single-game record for a freshman.
- In the earlier meeting vs. Iowa this season, Wagler scored 19 points, making four 3-pointers.
Make Iowa vs. Illinois Picks on PrizePicks
Will Iowa pull off another upset and get to Indianapolis for the national semifinals? Or will Illinois get back to the national semifinals for the first time in 20 years? The Iowa-Illinois NCAA Tournament game tips off at 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS.
You can make your Iowa vs. Illinois picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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