The 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is heating up, and only eight teams remain in the field. On Saturday night, No. 9 Iowa and No. 3 Illinois clash with a berth in the National Semifinals on the line.
The evening bout at 6:09 p.m. on TBS and truTV sees the Hawkeyes take on the Fighting Illini as 7.5-point underdogs. Can head coach Ben McCollum’s crew continue to play spoiler in the tournament?
Below, we’ll break down our Iowa vs. Illinois prediction on spread for Saturday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Iowa vs. Illinois Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
In year one with McCollum at the helm, Iowa has experienced a transformational season. The Hawkeyes are 24-12 to this point, their most wins since 2021-22. They’ve won their three NCAA Tournament games by a combined 13 points, living on the edge but coming out on top in rounds one, two, and three.
Illinois, similarly, is having a very solid season. Head coach Brad Underwood’s group is 27-8 on the year, led by star freshman G Keaton Wagler. The Illini took down Pennsylvania by 35 and VCU by 21 in rounds one and two before dispatching Houston, 65-55, in the Round of 16.
These two programs have squared off 136 times dating back to 1949, with Illinois owning a 74-62 advantage in those bouts. Their average scoring differential is +1.6 points.
Iowa vs. Illinois Spread, Over/Under
Iowa enters Saturday’s game as 7.5-point underdogs, returning a 3.44x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Illinois is favored with a 1.31x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini -7.5 (2x payout)
- Over/Under: 138.5 (1.96x payout)
- Game Winner Payout: Hawkeyes 3.44x | Illini 1.31x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Iowa vs. Illinois Prediction on Spread – 3/28/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Iowa vs. Illinois prediction on spread for Saturday, March 28 on PrizePicks.
- As favorites this season, Illinois is 17-11 against the spread. When playing the underdog role, Iowa is 6-5 ATS.
- KenPom absolutely loves the Illini, as evidenced by their +33.98 net rating that ranks fourth in the entire country. Iowa’s +23.85 mark is good for 22nd.
- It’s difficult to slow down Illinois when its offense is clicking. Per Bart Torvik, Underwood’s attack is second in adjusted efficiency (132.5) and eighth in lowest turnover rate (13.1%).
- The battle inside the arc could be the difference in this one. Illinois ranks 24th with a 57.8% make rate on 2-pointers, whereas Iowa’s 54.1% allowance sits 278th in the country.
- Swapping roles here, via CBB Shot Charts, the Hawkeyes make 66.5% of their tries at the rim but the Illini yield just a 56.9% efficiency clip.
- Iowa struggles on the boards, averaging just 29.6 rebounds per game. That’s 355th in the country, and Illinois’ 30.9 RPG given up is a top-20 figure among all Division I programs.
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Make Iowa vs. Illinois Picks on PrizePicks
Iowa vs. Illinois picks for Saturday are just one of many ways hoops fans can get in on the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
