The opener for Saturday’s national semifinals in Indianapolis features a rematch from November, as No. 3 seed Illinois (28-8) faces No. 2 seed UConn (33-5) at 6:09 p.m. ET, televised on TBS and truTV.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Illinois is listed as a 2.5-point favorite on the spread vs. UConn.
The Huskies erased a 19-point deficit to shock No. 1 seed Duke last Sunday, 73-72. The Fighting Illini won each of their first four tournament games by double digits, including the Round of 8's 71-59 win vs. Iowa.
Let’s look at our UConn vs. Illinois prediction on the spread for Saturday’s showdown at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
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Illinois vs. UConn Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Huskies dominated the Fighting Illini at Madison Square Garden, 74-61, as 4.5-point favorites on November 28. Illini never led, and UConn held a 21-point advantage halfway through the second half.
UConn held Illinois to 6 of 29 from 3-point range, the worst 3-point shooting performance from the Illini this season. However, Illinois was even worse vs. Iowa in the regional finals, converting 3 of 17 looks from beyond the arc.
These squads hooked up in the 2024 regional finals, and the Huskies routed the Illini, 77-52. The game was tied at 23-23 late in the first half before UConn tallied 30 consecutive points to put the game out of reach.
Illinois vs. UConn Spread, Over/Under
The Fighting Illini enter this matchup as 2.5-point favorites, returning a 1.72x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Huskies are underdogs with a 2.04x payout if they win, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Illinois -2.5 (2x)
- Over/Under: 139.5
- Game Winner Payout: Illinois 1.75x | UConn 2.08x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
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Illinois vs. UConn Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 4/4/26
Here are some key stats to know before locking in your Illinois vs. UConn national semifinal prediction on the spread for Saturday, April 4, on PrizePicks.
- UConn scored the first basket vs. Duke last Sunday and never led by more than two points in its comeback victory.
- The Huskies were held to 5-of-23 shooting from 3-point range, marking their third performance with a mark under 22% from deep over the past five games.
- Illinois ranks 37th in 3-point shooting allowed at 31.1%, while limiting three of four tournament opponents to under 30% from downtown.
- Head coach Brad Underwood’s squad limits turnovers by sitting 10th in turnover rate (13.2%).
- However, Illinois doesn’t force many turnovers, placing last in defensive turnover rate at 11.8%, according to KenPom.
- Head coach Dan Hurley’s club has a 16.7% turnover rate that ranks 178th, providing good news to the Fighting Illini.
- The Huskies turned the ball over 5 times vs. Duke and had a turnover rate of 8.0%.
- However, UConn has not posted a turnover rate under 12% in consecutive games this season.
- Since the 2024 NCAA Tournament, Illinois is 6-1 straight-up and against the spread in the favored role.
- Illinois freshman star G Keaton Wagler has logged 18.3 points per game since dropping 46 on Purdue on January 24.
- In the first matchup with UConn, Wagler was held to 3 points on 1-of-3 shooting. He played for only 14 minutes compared to 33.8 per game on the season.
- Illinois has limited three of four tournament opponents to less than 2 points at the foul line.
- UConn averaged 13.5 points per game from free throws over its four tourney victories.
Make Illinois vs. UConn Picks on PrizePicks
The Fighting Illini seek their first national championship game appearance since 2005 while trying to avenge the November loss to the Huskies. UConn, meanwhile, is chasing its third national title since 2023.
You can make your Illinois vs. UConn picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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