Hawaii vs. Arizona State Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, October 10

We get an interconference nightcap in the desert, with the Mountain West’s Hawaii traveling to the mainland to take on the Big 12’s Arizona State. This game kicks off at 10:30 p.m. ET on FS1, with Arizona State a 20.5-point favorite for the spread, via PrizePicks.

Hawaii is coming off a brutal loss to Stanford, where it allowed a season-high 37 points, but that's nothing compared to how badly Arizona State got demolished in its 55-19 loss to Baylor.

Let’s dive into our Hawaii vs. Arizona State predictions, featuring player projections for college football picks on PrizePicks.

Make your Hawaii vs. Arizona State picks on PrizePicks now! 

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Hawaii vs. Arizona State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 10

Arizona State enters Saturday as a 20.5-point favorite over Hawaii. The Sun Devils have a 1.04x payout to win outright — or a $104 return on a $100 entry if you're right.

Here are the full payouts for Hawaii vs. Arizona State on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Hawaii vs. Arizona State prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!

All stats are via CFB Stats, PFF, and Game on Paper unless otherwise noted.

Hawaii’s transition to the Mountain West in 2012 has not brought the success it had in the 2000s under head coach June Jones. 

The Rainbow Warriors have only four winning seasons over the past 13 years and made one bowl appearance in their last five. The 2025 campaign was one of their best seasons in recent history, with nine wins marking the most since 2019.

When a Group of Six program has a strong season, it draws the Power Four’s attention, which is one reason the Rainbow Warriors lost 17 starters from last season.

Now in a rebuild, the team has lost four of five to start the year, with three of those losses by two possessions. Offensively, Hawaii is as one-dimensional as any team could be. It passes more than any other team, leading the nation in passing play percentage (68.5%). 

That’s because this unit is seeing no impact in the run game, ranking in the 10th percentile in yards per carry (3.3), and its PFF run-block grade is in the 21st percentile (54.0).

The Rainbow Warriors' passing volume might succeed against an Arizona State defense that couldn't stop Baylor's air attack last week. The Sun Devils gave up 320 passing yards and 564 total yards in a 55-19 loss, their first 36-point defeat since 2023.

Hawaii lacks the firepower to reach 500+ total yards, but it could stay competitive if Arizona State keeps giving the ball away. Turnovers have been a huge problem for the Sun Devils, with at least 1 in three of four games and multiple in two games.

The worst came against Texas A&M, when Arizona State QB Cutter Boley threw 2 pick-sixes in a 48-20 loss.

That’s two games in which opposing teams scored 103 points combined off Arizona State, and both the offense and the defense were responsible. However, ASU held a Kansas team that ranks in the 72nd percentile in points per game (36.0) to just 17 points.

When Arizona State’s offense is working, it runs one of the country's most explosive passing attacks. ASU WR Reed Harris is 24th nationally in yards after the catch (192), and fellow WR Omarion Miller isn’t far behind at 32nd (168). The Hawaii secondary may not stop those big plays, ranking in the 25th percentile in allowing 20+ passing-yard plays (17).

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Hawaii vs. Arizona State Prediction on Spread – 10/10/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Hawaii vs. Arizona State prediction on the spread for Saturday, October 10.

• Hawaii has the nation's heaviest passing offense, leading the country in pass attempts (234). However, that hasn't translated into efficiency, as the offense sits in the 27th percentile in completion percentage (59.1%) and the 18th percentile in passing TDs (5). 
• Arizona State has done well in certain aspects against the pass this season, ranking in the 82nd percentile in completion percentage allowed (56.0%) and the 60th percentile in passing success rate allowed (42.5%).
• The Rainbow Warriors’ offensive line has struggled in pass protection, placing in the 12th percentile in sacks allowed (14).
• Arizona State excels at scoring inside the 20, ranking 72nd in red zone conversion rate (90.9%). Hawaii struggles defensively in the red zone, sitting 30th in opponents’ red zone conversion rate (88.9%).
• Hawaii has trouble defending the run in the 31st percentile in rushing yards allowed per game (158.2) and the 19th percentile in rushing TDs allowed (10).

Lock in your Hawaii vs. Arizona prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff.

Hawaii vs. Arizona State Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 10/10/26

Saturday’s top Hawaii vs. Arizona State picks to target on PrizePicks include QBs Cutter Boley and Micah Alejado.

Hawaii QB Micah Alejado  vs. Arizona State: 205.5 Pass Yards

• Alejado has thrown for more than 205 yards in four of five games.
• The Rainbow Warriors quarterback is one of the busier passers, leading the country in pass-play percentage (68.5%). ASU ranks in the 42nd percentile for opponents’ pass-play percentage (48.6%).
• The Sun Devils were torched by another heavy passing attack, giving up 320 yards to a Baylor offense that is in the 67th percentile in pass-play rate (51.0%).
• Given the passing volume, that has yielded 132 completions (second nationally) for Alejado. According to Team Rankings, the Sun Devils rank in the 39th percentile for completions allowed per game against FBS opponents (19.7).

Add Micah Alejado + Hawaii to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Arizona State QB Cutter Boley vs. Hawaii: 249.5 Pass Yards

• Boley has thrown for 250+ yards in three of four games this season. One of those games was against Baylor, which ranks in the 31st percentile in passing yards allowed per game (229.2). Hawaii is only slightly better in the 33rd percentile (226.4).
• Boley may beat the Hawaii secondary with a deep pass, as he has the sixth-most passing TDs on throws of 20+ air yards (4). Hawaii is in the 25th percentile in allowing 20+ passing-yard plays (17).
• Boley’s pass catchers excel at extending plays, averaging 7.9 yards after the catch, the sixth-highest in the country.
• According to Fourth and Short, the Hawaii defensive backs rank in the 30th percentile for havoc rate (6.4%).

Add Cutter Boley + Arizona State to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Make Hawaii vs. Arizona State Picks on PrizePicks

This late-night matchup pits two teams desperate for wins.

Arizona State won the Big 12 two years ago, but two lopsided defeats may show it isn’t ready to compete for a playoff spot. Hawaii hasn't been able to sustain its momentum from a successful 2025 season, starting the season with one win.

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Hawaii vs. Arizona State picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!

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