French Open Predictions for Monday, June 1: Sabalenka, Tiafoe

This has been one of the wildest Grand Slams in recent memory, as top seeds are dropping like flies in both singles draws. 

For the men, the tournament was already missing Carlos Alcaraz due to injury, and following the upsets of both Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic, we’re now guaranteed a first-time French Open champion. Similarly, with Coco Gauff and then Iga Swiatek falling in the last couple of days, the women’s side will also see a new champion at Roland Garros.

Below, we’ll break down our French Open predictions for Monday’s tennis slate, including winner payouts, key stats, and two tennis match predictions for PrizePicks.

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French Open Predictions, Tennis Picks for Monday, June 1

Before we get into our French Open predictions for Monday, here’s a quick look at the two matches we’re focusing on and the consensus favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Make your French Open predictions on the winner on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi — Fourth Round

• Tiafoe – 1.78x payout | Arnaldi – 1.96x payout

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka — Fourth Round

• Sabalenka – 1.19x payout | Osaka – 4.54x payout

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout means the result will return $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 35 states.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi Prediction for the French Open – Monday, June 1

Match Winner Payouts: Tiafoe 1.78x | Arnaldi 1.96x
Tournament Round: Fourth Round
2026 Record Entering the French Open: Tiafoe 19-10 | Arnaldi 2-6
Head-to-Head Record: 1-1
How to Watch: TNT, truTV, and HBO Max

At a glance, this looks like a mismatch. Frances Tiafoe is the world No. 22 and is a multi-time major quarterfinalist, which includes reaching the quarters at last year’s French Open. On the other hand, Matteo Arnaldi comes in with a losing record and a ranking just outside the top 100. Plus, he’s never gotten past the fourth round at a Grand Slam.

Yet, the match winner payouts are pretty even here.

That’s because Arnaldi’s ranking and record are a bit misleading, as a foot injury derailed the start of his season. He actually came into the French Open with some momentum, winning a Challenger clay tournament (victories that don’t count toward his ATP record) and notching a pair of wins in Rome before losing a three-setter to teenage phenom Rafael Jodar. 

Clay has historically been Arnaldi’s best surface, too, amassing a 52.8% career win percentage, which is actually better than Tiafoe’s win percentage on the surface (51.0%).

Both players have experienced a grueling path to this stage, and that should further even the playing field. Tiafoe is coming off back-to-back five-setters, while Arnaldi played nearly five hours in a third-round match that went the distance.

Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Tiafoe is projected for a 56.0% win probability.  

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Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi Pick for the French Open on Monday

Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi — 39.5 Total Games

In the first three rounds, Tiafoe’s matches have all gone four or five sets, resulting in 41, 59, and 51 total games. Of the 14 sets he’s played, six have gone to a tiebreaker.

Arnaldi has had a similar path, logging 44, 42, and 58 total games. Five of his 13 sets have reached a tiebreaker.

While Tiafoe has won at least 79% of his first-serve points in each of his matches, he’s been getting aced at a high clip. In the last two rounds, he’s been aced a whopping 43 and 26 times. Entering the tournament, he had one of the highest ace rates against (9.0%) on clay among the top 50 players over the last 52 weeks.  

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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction for the French Open – Monday, June 1

Match Winner Payouts: Sabalenka 1.19x | Osaka 4.54x
Tournament Round: Fourth Round
2026 Record Entering the French Open: Sabalenka 27-3 | Osaka 9-5
Head-to-Head Record: Sabalenka leads 2-1
How to Watch: TNT, truTV, and HBO Max

This will be the first women’s match slotted in the French Open night season since 2023, highlighting both the star power of these two combatants and half of the men’s draw suddenly lacking big names amid all the upsets. 

Both Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka are more known for their hard-court play, as the two have combined for eight titles at the Australian Open and US Open, yet neither one has ever lifted the trophy at the French Open or Wimbledon.

However, the difference is that Sabalenka has been knocking on the door at Roland Garros, reaching at least the quarterfinals in each of the past three seasons and most recently coming up just short as the runner-up in 2025. On the other hand, Osaka has never had much success at the French Open, and this is actually the first time she’s ever advanced past the third round.

With that in mind, it isn’t surprising to see Sabalenka as a pretty heavy favorite here, and Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings agree, projecting an 82.2% win probability for Aryna. 

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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka Pick for the French Open

Sabalenka vs. Osaka — 20.5 Total Games

Osaka had at least one tiebreaker in each of her first three matches, resulting in 22, 23, and 36 total match games.

Although Sabalenka has mostly cruised through her matches, she’s surprisingly only produced 3 total aces thus far. In contrast, Osaka has 21 aces, which is the tournament’s highest mark as of this writing.

The last time these two women played actually came in April at Madrid, another clay tournament. Sabalenka won 6-7, 6-3, 6-2 (30 total games).

While Osaka isn’t known for her prowess on clay, she had solid performances at Madrid and Rome ahead of the French Open. She achieved a 4-2 record, with her only losses being the aforementioned Sabalenka defeat and a loss to Iga Swiatek, one of the sport’s elite clay players. 

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The men’s draw might be in shambles, but that opens the door for some fresh faces to go deep into this tournament. Likewise, we will see a new women’s French Open champion in 2026. This could lead to some intriguing matchups as we get deeper into the tournament.

Don’t wait until lock — make your French Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 35 states!

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily French Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.