Florida vs. #7 Texas Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, 10/17/26

Two teams coming off big losses square off in a key SEC game as the Florida Gators are in Austin to face the #7 Texas Longhorns. Texas is a 10.5-point favorite on the spread in this one, returning a 1.2x payout with a win via PrizePicks. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.

Last week, Texas entered the Red River Rivalry ranked #1 in the country but fell to Oklahoma on a walk-off FG. Florida lost for the second straight week, getting blown out at home by unranked South Carolina 38-19.

Below, we’ll break down our Florida vs. Texas prediction and picks for Saturday’s college football game, including the game winner, spread, and over/under for PrizePicks.

Make your Florida vs. Texas picks on PrizePicks for Saturday’s game.

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Florida vs. #7 Texas Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 17

Texas enters Saturday’s game as a 10.5-point favorite vs. Florida, returning a 1.2x payout on PrizePicks if it wins outright.

Here are the full payouts for Florida vs. Texas on PrizePicks

Play the Florida vs. Texas spread or over/under on PrizePicks!

‍Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.‍

After setting school and conference records in the first four weeks of the season on offense, scoring 53.5 PPG with 532.5 YPG, Florida's drop-off has been dramatic.

On offense, the main difference has been rushing, where the Gators’ rushing production has fallen nearly 69% from 260 YPG in the first four games to just 42 against Missouri and 120 vs. South Carolina.

The passing production remained virtually unchanged, but Florida only scored 18 PPG in the two losses. However, starting QB Aaron Philo, along with WR Vernell Brown III and WR Bailey Stockton are questionable to play.

Defensively, the Gators were average during a four-game winning streak that resulted in them moving all the way to #8 in the nation, but that hasn't been the case as of late. Florida allowed 83 points and over 950 total yards in its losses.

Florida gave up 5.02 yards per play in its first four contests compared to 6.91 in the two losses.

Texas took over the top spot in the country with its rally over Ohio State back in Week 2. The Longhorns followed that up with wins over UTSA and #14 Tennessee but gave up 17 fourth-quarter points in the loss to rival Oklahoma. 

The Texas offense struggled vs. Oklahoma, gaining only 238 yards, but that story has matched the season. UT sits outside the top 100 in yards per play and rushing offense and is 79th in total offense. The Longhorns haven't been efficient offensively, but the Gators are especially vulnerable on defense.

The teams have met twice since Texas joined the SEC, with each protecting home turf. The Longhorns blew out Florida two years ago in Austin (49-17) before the Gators upset the heavily-favored Longhorns last year in Gainesville by a final of 29-21.   

Florida vs. Texas Prediction on Over/Under – 10/17/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Florida vs. Texas prediction on the over/under for Saturday, October 17.

• Florida has gained only 356.0 YPG in the last two weeks — 10th among 16 SEC teams and a major drop from a 532.5-yard average and #2 offensive ranking entering the Missouri game.
• The Gators −0.47 EPA/rush vs. Missouri and −0.17 against South Carolina despite maintaining 0.19 EPA/dropback in both games. Now, they face the 15th-best rush defense in the country.
• In Florida’s last trip to Austin, the Gators had just 329 yards and committed 3 turnovers.
• Texas has played three of five games to the under, only going over in Week 1 when they poured in 59 vs. Texas State, as well as last week vs. Oklahoma. 
• The Longhorns have struggled to sustain drives, owning 8 three-and-out possessions against Oklahoma while Arch Manning was sacked 6 times. Manning also threw a pair of fourth-quarter INTs, including a pick-six.
• Per Game on Paper, opponents have gained just 29.9% of available yards against the Longhorns, fifth-best nationally. Texas also ranks sixth in early-down defensive EPA/play (-0.16). 
• Texas ranks among the top 15 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense and passing defense.

Make your Florida vs. Texas prediction on PrizePicks now!

Florida vs. Texas Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/17/26

Here are the top Florida vs. Texas picks to target on Saturday, October 17. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include RB Jadan Baugh and QB Arch Manning.

Florida RB Jadan Baugh vs. Texas: 77.5 Rush Yards

• After rushing for 600 yards in the first four games of the season (second in the nation), Florida RB Jadan Baugh has just 72 total rushing yards over the past two games. 
• With that said, Baugh is tied for the most rushing TDs in the country with 12, and he's still eighth in total rushing output by yardage.
• Baugh’s 15.50 total EPA vs. FBS teams is 29th in the nation. 
• Against Texas last year, Baugh rushed for 107 yards ands a TD on 27 carries. At the time, that was a career-high mark for him.

Add Jadan Baugh + Florida to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Texas QB Arch Manning vs. Florida: 255.5 Pass Yards

• Manning has averaged only 224.4 passing YPG but faces a Florida pass defense that's 129th and has allowed 619 yards in the last two weeks. 
• Manning's thrown for more than 250 yards in four of six home games over the last two seasons and four of five when he plays the whole contest. 
• Peyton and Eli’s nephew completed 16 of 29 passes for 263 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs last year in Gainesville, adding 37 yards on the ground.
• Manning threw for 260 yards and 3 TDs vs. Oklahoma, his second game with at least 260 yards this season. He averaged 8.4 yards per attempt against a defense that entered the week among the nation's best.

Add Arch Manning + Texas to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Can Florida end its two-game losing streak on the road at Texas, or will the Longhorns rebound from a Red River Rivalry loss and stay in the College Football Playoff race?

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Florida vs. Texas picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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