After eight games last weekend, the college football season has a full slate for Week 1, including Florida hosting Florida Atlantic on Saturday in Gainesville, FL. Florida enters as a 26.5-point favorite on the spread, returning a 1.02x payout with a home win via PrizePicks.
Florida begins the Jon Sumrall era after a disappointing 4-8 campaign in 2025, opening at home for the 36th time in the last 38 seasons. They host a Florida Atlantic team that also went 4-8. Florida is 4-0 all time in the series, with kickoff in this one set for 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday on SEC Network.
Below, we’ll break down our Florida Atlantic vs. Florida prediction and picks for Saturday’s college football game, including the game winner, spread, and over/under on PrizePicks.
Make your Florida Atlantic vs. Florida picks on PrizePicks for Saturday’s game.
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Florida Atlantic vs. Florida Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Saturday, September 5
Sumrall takes over in Gainesville for the Gators, who are looking to get back into the SEC and national picture after four losing seasons in the past five years. Sumrall was able to keep some key Florida players such as RB Jadan Baugh and WRs Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III while hitting the portal for Georgia Tech QB Aaron Philo.
Philo followed new Florida offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner from Atlanta to run the Florida offense.
One of the few bright spots last season, Baugh’s 1,170 rushing yards were third in the SEC, behind Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy and Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy, and 19th nationally. Baugh rushed for 45+ yards in all 12 games, 60+ yards in the last eight games, and 60+ yards in 16 of his past 19.
Sumrall and Faulkner will use those weapons to try to improve an offense that was 114th in the nation in EPA per play play last year at -0.04 and 83rd in yards per play at 5.70, via Game on Paper. Under previous head coach Billy Napier, Florida averaged an SEC-low 21.6 points per game after ranking 11th in the SEC in scoring in 2024 and ninth in both 2023 and 2022.
By comparison, Faulkner’s Georgia Tech offense averaged 33.1 PPG last season and was 10th in the nation in EPA/play at 0.23.
Zach Kittley starts his second season at Florida Atlantic, coming over from Western Kentucky. In year one, the Owls' offense went from 98th to 22nd and led the nation in passing at 340.2 yards per game — 28 more than any other team. QB Caden Veltkamp is back after throwing for 3,641 yards and 24 TDs, as is AAC-leading WR Easton Messer (104 catches).
The high-flying offense also had its issues, leading the nation in INTs with 20. On defense, the Owls had trouble getting off the field, allowing over 200 rushing YPG, and now go up against one of the best RBs in the country in Baugh.
Florida Atlantic vs. Florida Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, September 5
Florida enters Saturday’s game as a 26.5-point favorite against Florida Atlantic, returning a 1.02x payout if they win outright, according to PrizePicks.
The total is set at 58.5 points. Here are the full payouts for Florida Atlantic vs. Florida on PrizePicks.
Make your picks on the Florida Atlantic vs. Florida spread or over/under on PrizePicks!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Florida Atlantic vs. Florida Prediction on Over/Under – 9/5/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Florida Atlantic vs. Florida prediction on the over/under for Saturday, September 5.
- Florida’s new regime of Sumrall and Faulkner brings a more uptempo offense to Gainesville, where Florida averaged 28.0 seconds between plays last year, 108th in the country.
- Look no further than Florida Atlantic for the fastest offense in the country, where the Owls averaged 21.4 seconds between plays, tied for first in the nation.
- Faulkner’s Georgia Tech offense averaged 26.1 seconds between plays, gaining 460.0 YPG, good for 12th nationally. Florida netted 341.3 YPG, sitting 13th of 16 SEC teams and being 108th overall.
- Georgia Tech games went over 58 total points 11 times in Faulkner’s last 14 outings as OC. Nine of the Owls' 12 games in 2025 totaled 59+ points, and six went over 65.
- FAU was 51st in the country by averaging 29.5 points, while its defense allowed 36.3 PPG (131st of 136 FBS teams).
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Make Florida Atlantic vs. Florida Picks on PrizePicks
Can Florida begin the Jon Sumrall era with a big win at home vs. an in-state school, or will Florida Atlantic pull off an upset in Gainesville like South Florida did last year?
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