Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

Style points don’t always matter in the NFL, and both the Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers understand that quite well. Although neither team blew anyone’s socks off in the 2025 campaign or has a tremendous outlook for 2026, everyone started this new season with a fresh slate and a 0-0 record.

Entering Sunday’s 1 p.m. kickoff on FOX, Pittsburgh is favored by 5.5 points on PrizePicks, although the spread spent plenty of time at 3.5 and 4.5 this week. Can the Steel Curtain kick the season off with a win, or will the Dirty Birds steal one away from home? 

Below, we'll break down our Falcons vs. Steelers prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Falcons vs. Steelers prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

The Raheem Morris-era Falcons were nothing if not consistent. In back-to-back years with the esteemed defensive mind at the helm, the club posted an 8-9 record and finished in the middle of the pack in both the division and conference. With that said, it was glaringly obvious that last season’s Atlanta squad left some to be desired.

Offense was the main culprit, as the Falcons’ troublesome QB situation led to them ranking 25th in points per drive and 26th in passing TDs. The team is no closer to realizing that Michael Penix Jr. is a long-term option, and not even the heroics of RB Bijan Robinson or WR Drake London were able to mask the deficiencies of him or the now-departed Kirk Cousins. 

On the other end, it doesn’t help matters that pass rusher James Pearce Jr. is suspended to start the year and veteran Za’Darius Smith is already banged up with Week 1 arriving. Jalon Walker was done for the campaign before it even began. The Falcons experienced year-over-year improvement on defense after struggling immensely in 2024, but it remains to be seen whether Jeff Ulbrich’s unit will stagnate.

The big story of the week for Atlanta is new (previously announced) starting QB Tua Tagovailoa’s oblique injury. After originally being deemed day-to-day after sustaining the ailment in Thursday’s practice, he got downgraded to out, so it’ll be the Cooper Rush show under center to kick off the year. Penix is still recovering from ACL surgery and is sitting out Week 1.

That should be music to the Steelers’ ears, as Rush has just an 80.7 passer rating for his career and struggled immensely in a limited stint with the Baltimore Ravens in 2025 (0 TDs, 4 INTs). A defense that contains household names like T.J. Watt, Jalen Ramsey and more has a prime opportunity to flex its muscles and cement itself as a premier group. 

Ironically, the offensive side will be the talking point for Pittsburgh all year long. This is QB Aaron Rodgers’ final season in the NFL, and he’s got his old Green Bay Packers HC Mike McCarthy back for the swan song after Mike Tomlin’s shocking departure. This is a Steelers team that sat right in the middle of the pack (16th) in per-drive scoring a season ago but held possession at the sixth-lowest clip (2:44).

A new toy at Rodgers’ disposal, WR Michael Pittman Jr., could be a difference-maker in a year the organization expects to make the postseason again. 

Falcons vs. Steelers Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 13

The Steelers enter Sunday’s game as 5.5-point home favorites against the Falcons, returning a 1.36x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Falcons vs. Steelers game on PrizePicks.

Make your Falcons vs. Steelers pick on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction on Spread – 9/13/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Falcons vs. Steelers prediction on the spread for Sunday, September 13’s game. 

• The Steelers did quite well protecting their home turf in 2025, posting a 3-1 against-the-spread record as favorites at Acrisure Stadium, the second-highest cover rate in the sport. 
• It’s a battle of the very stoppable force against the extremely movable object in this one. The Falcons had the third-worst third-down conversion rate on offense last year (33.3%), but the Steelers were 26th in that category on defense (43.0%). 
• Despite Atlanta having the far superior back in Robinson, the team’s rush EPA/play of -0.073 was just 20th this past year (RBSDM). Pittsburgh, which added Rico Dowdle during the offseason, ranked seventh at -0.001. 
• Simply put, the Steelers are better at getting after the QB on defense and preventing that from happening on offense. Last year, they ranked 15th and first, respectively, to the Falcons’ marks of eighth and 22nd. 
• One thing that could set these teams apart further is discipline. Pittsburgh was excellent in that regard during Tomlin’s final season in town, averaging just 5.8 penalties per game (eighth). The end of Morris’ tenure saw Atlanta average 6.4 (17th).

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Falcons vs. Steelers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/13/26

Here are the top Falcons vs. Steelers picks to target on Sunday, September 13. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and QB Aaron Rodgers.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Steelers: 116.5 Rush + Rec Yards

• Robinson averaged a whopping 135.1 combined rushing and receiving yards per game last year, including 144.0 over his last eight contests.
• Per SumerSports, Bijan (19.8%) trailed only San Francisco 49ers halfback Christian McCaffrey (23.4%) for target rate at the position in 2025. 
• Robinson routinely forced missed tackles this past season (86) en route to posting a 3.9 yards after contact per attempt figure. 
• 2025 Pittsburgh had a middling run defense, surrendering 4.3 yards per attempt (18th) on 26.8 rushes each time out (17th). It was also tied for the 13th-most receptions given up to RBs with 77. 

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Falcons WR Drake London vs. Steelers: 64.5 Rec Yards

• The former first-round pick set new personal bests across the board this past season, including marks for yards per game (76.6), yards per reception (13.5), and yards per target (8.2, tied). 
• London’s 30.3% target share last season blew the next-closest wideout, Darnell Mooney (16.1%) out of the water. Mooney has since left for the New York Giants. 
• Via NFL Pro, only four other players since 2016 have logged a target rate of 30% or higher in the slot in consecutive seasons. Last year’s Steelers surrendered the second-most yards to slot receivers with 1,705. 
• Only four defenses (Dallas, Indianapolis, Baltimore, and Tennessee) allowed more receiving yards to WRs than the Steelers with 2,782 in 2025. 

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Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Falcons: 212.5 Pass Yards

• Rodgers may have mustered just 207.6 passing YPG in his 21st season, but that average rose to 247.2 in his last five regular-season games.
• Pittsburgh’s short-range passing attack and tough receiving corps give Rodgers chances to earn passing yards after the ball is caught. He logged 6.5 yards after catch per completion a campaign ago, his most since tracking started in 2018.
• According to Sharp Football Analysis, the addition of Pittman could be a hand-in-glove fit. Out of 93 wideouts with 250+ routes a year ago, MPJ’s 8.36-yard average depth of target was 78th, which should jibe with Rodgers’ lightning-quick release. 
• Atlanta ceded 7.1 yards per pass last season, ranking 20th in the sport. 

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Coming off a rough season but a near title in the NFC South, Atlanta is attempting to fight off regression in a new year. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, could use a Week 1 win to start the last hurrah of Rodgers’ career on the right pace. 

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Falcons vs. Steelers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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