An NFC South rivalry is renewed in one of the final games of Week 12, albeit not necessarily under the circumstances either team was hoping for.
Sunday afternoon’s Falcons-Saints bout (4:25 p.m. ET on FOX) sees 3-7 Atlanta take on 2-8 New Orleans in a matchup between clubs with a combined 1-9 record in their last 10 games. Both franchises are on the proverbial struggle bus entering this weekend.
Below, we’ll break down our Falcons vs. Saints prediction and NFL Week 12 picks to consider. Use PrizePicks NFL to monitor player projections and make picks for real rewards if you’re right.
Falcons vs. Saints Prediction, Preview for Week 12
As a division rivalry, Falcons vs. Saints is one of the league’s closest historical battles. In their all-time series, the two sides have played 112 times and are knotted up at 56-56. They’ve also split their last four meetings, so it’s difficult to decipher who could come out on top in Week 12.
As is always the case this late in the season, injuries factor into this contest. For New Orleans, offensive linemen Taliese Fuaga (ankle) and Barry Wesley (hip) are questionable. For Atlanta, WR Drake London (knee) and QB Michael Penix Jr. (knee) are both out.
Atlanta Falcons Preview vs. Saints
Last season was head coach Raheem Morris’ first with the Falcons. He helped the team turn in a respectable effort, going 8-9 on the year.
The results haven’t been nearly as kind to the Dirty Birds in 2025. They’re 3-7 through 10 games, having lost five in a row after a solid 3-2 start.
Much of the Falcons’ shortcomings stem from their offense. It’s 27th in scoring per game, sitting 30th in TD passes and 28th in percentage of drives ending in points.
Atlanta’s defense is improved, albeit still unspectacular, ranking 18th in yards per drive and 19th in overall scoring.
New Orleans Saints Preview vs. Falcons
The 2024 campaign was a lost one for the Saints, as they posted a 5-12 record with head coach Dennis Allen getting relieved of duties partway through the season. The team went 3-5 under interim leader Darren Rizzi.
So far this year, New Orleans is 2-8, but they’re coming off a 17-7 win over the Panthers in Week 10 before their bye.
In a similar vein to their NFC South counterparts, the Saints’ offense is anemic. It’s 27th in turnovers and 29th in points per drive.
New Orleans’ defense is trying to help, despite ranking third-to-last in average starting field position. That side of the ball is 11th in yards allowed but 21st in points.
Falcons vs. Saints Picks for NFL Week 12 on Sunday
Here are three Falcons vs. Saints picks for NFL Week 12 on Sunday. Some top same-game PrizePicks projections to consider include QB Kirk Cousins and RBs Bijan Robinson and Alvin Kamara.
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins vs. Saints Projection: 207.5 Pass Yards
- Cousins averaged 250.6 passing yards in his 14 starts last year, his lowest mark since 2019 (240.2).
- In his Week 8 start in relief of Penix (who’s now on IR), the 37-year-old threw for just 173 yards on 31 attempts.
- According to SumerSports, 39 QBs logged 250+ plays in 2024. Cousins ranked 21st in total EPA at -0.04.
- The Saints allow the sixth-fewest passing yards per game to QBs (207.6).
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Saints Projection: 129.5 Rush + Rec Yards
- In year three, Robinson averages 128.9 scrimmage yards per game. He’s also coming off a 27-touch, 193-yard showing in Week 11’s 30-27 loss to the Panthers.
- Among 53 RBs with 50+ rushes in 2025, Robinson’s 18.73% target share ranks third, per SumerSports.
- Using that same carry threshold, via Pro Football Focus, Robinson’s 3.77 average yards after contact per attempt is sixth out of 50 ball carriers.
- The Saints yield the eighth-highest per-game rushing average to RBs (105.5 yards).
Saints RB Alvin Kamara vs. Falcons Projection: 56.5 Rush Yards
- An ankle ailment isn’t expected to hold Kamara out of Week 12, even with him being questionable on the injury report.
- The 30-year-old halfback snapped out of a cold spell in Week 10, recording a season-high in carries with 22. He also got all of New Orleans’ red-zone attempts.
- Atlanta’s run defense is bottom-five in EPA/play, per SumerSports.
- According to NFL Pro, the Falcons rank 31st in percentage of runs stuffed on defense at 11.3. They’re also football’s second-worst run defense inside the tackles (0.07 EPA/play).
Make Falcons vs. Saints Picks on PrizePicks
When Atlanta and New Orleans duke it out, there will be plenty of opportunities for Falcons vs. Saints picks. The NFL Week 12 slate also leaves the door open for several other player projections and much more.
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