The WNBA postseason begins this weekend, although there’s still a handful of games left to help decide which teams will be seeded where in the playoff picture. Two of those squads, the Atlanta Dream and New York Liberty, will do battle on Wednesday night.
According to PrizePicks, New York heads into the midweek contest (8 p.m. on USA Network) favored by a narrow margin of 1.5 points at home. Can the Liberty make a last-ditch effort to climb up the standings, or will the Dream stay hot and cement their status as a top team?
Below, we'll break down our Dream vs. Liberty prediction and picks for Wednesday’s WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Dream vs. Liberty prediction on PrizePicks now.
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Dream vs. Liberty Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, September 23
Everything from 2025 on has built to this point for the dream, who can match their prior-year record of 30-14 with a triumph on Wednesday night. Things continue to go well for Karl Smesko’s crew, which has ripped off four straight victories heading into this one.
It wasn’t too long ago that this Atlanta squad had dropped six of seven games in a row and was just 13-10 on the year. The Dream have caught absolute fire since then, however, with the three-headed monster of guards Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard and F Angel Reese leading the way.
As their final game of the 2026 regular season approaches, all the Dream need to do is secure a win on Wednesday to lock up a top-four seed in the postseason and ensure home-court advantage for the opening round of play.
The Liberty, too, are only one positive outcome away from finishing with the same exact regular-season record as 2025. Chris DeMarco’s 26-17 New York group is led by eight-time All-Star F Breanna Stewart, whose 20.8 points per game lead the team. N.Y. is 2-1 since returning from the FIBA World Cup break, blowing out the Minnesota Lynx and Toronto Tempo before falling short vs. Atlanta.
A Wednesday loss would lock the Liberty into the #8 seed, putting them in a tough first-round clash with the Lynx. Getting the sixth or seventh seeds is still in play depending on the outcomes of Dallas vs. Seattle tonight and Chicago vs. Washington on Thursday.
These two clubs have alternated wins and losses dating back to the summer of 2025, with the Dream covering the spread on four of six occasions, including Monday’s 95-84 win.
Via ESPN’s WNBA Basketball Power Index, Atlanta ranks third with a 15.3% chance to win the WNBA Finals. New York sits in sixth place at 6.3%. On PrizePicks, Atlanta returns a 6.25x payout with a correct “Yes” prediction to win it all; New York returns an 11.11x payout.
Dream vs. Liberty Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, September 23
The Liberty enter Wednesday’s game as 1.5-point home favorites against the Dream, returning a 1.69x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Here are the full payouts for the Dream vs. Liberty game on PrizePicks.
Make your Dream vs. Liberty prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 36 states!
Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
Dream vs. Liberty Injury Report for Wednesday, September 23
Let’s dive into the full Dream vs. Liberty injury report for Wednesday, September 23, via WNBA.com.
Atlanta Dream Injury Report
- F Brionna Jones (leg): OUT
New York Liberty Injury Report
- G Elizabeth Balogun (not with team): OUT
Dream vs. Liberty Prediction on Spread – 9/23/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Dream vs. Liberty prediction on the spread for Wednesday, September 23’s game.
- New York is a respectable 10-9 against the spread as a home favorite this year; Atlanta hasn’t been tested much (1-1 ATS) as a road underdog.
- The Dream boast a fantastic defense that’s extremely disruptive. Atlanta’s net rating from forced turnovers (dTOV, per databallr) of 3.5 leads the sport. New York’s -2.9 mark is dead last.
- A similar trend applies on the offensive side of the ball, where the Dream take care of the ball (1.2 oTOV, fourth) and the Liberty don’t (-1.4, 13th).
- New York’s defense is nothing to write home about, ranking 12th or worse in 2-point percentage (53.5%), 3-point percentage (35.4%), and effective field goal clip (53.4%) given up.
- The battle of the boards goes to the Dream, who allow the lowest offensive rebounding rate (20.1%) and the second-lowest defensive rebounding rate (69.8%). The Liberty are seventh and third, respectively, in both.
- If this game is close late, Atlanta gets a massive advantage, as it scores more fourth-quarter PPG (23.7) than any team while ceding the second-fewest (20.4).
Lock in your Dream vs. Liberty prediction on PrizePicks before tonight’s WNBA game.
Dream vs. Liberty Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/23/26
Here are the top Dream vs. Liberty picks to target on Wednesday, September 23. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include F Angel Reese, G Allisha Gray, and F Breanna Stewart.
Dream F Angel Reese vs. Liberty: 27.5 Pts + Rebs
- Reese consistently fills up the stat sheet, evidenced by her combined 28.9 scoring and rebounding average. In her last 10 contests, that number is up to 33.1.
- The three-time All-Star has upped her scoring efficiency around the rim once again, going from 49.8% as a rookie to 52.2% as a sophomore and now 57.0% in year three.
- Via databallr, Reese’s 15.1% offensive rebounding rate and 23.9% D-boards clip are both in the 99th percentile.
- New York gives up a 25.8% offensive rebounding rate, residing in the middle of the pack at seventh leaguewide.
Add Angel Reese + Dream to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Dream G Allisha Gray vs. Liberty: 17.5 Points
- Gray is pouring in 18.9 PPG on the year, including a 19.1 mark in her last 14 games. She’s been a model of consistency for Atlanta.
- The veteran guard has upped her efficiency around the basket, putting a career-best 75.0% of attempts from 3-10 feet through the net.
- Her Dream teammates are putting her in good positions to succeed; 68.7% of Gray’s inside-the-arc makes are of the assisted variety. That’s a new personal best.
- Gray is one of the game’s best when it comes to free throws, as she takes 5.5 trips to the line each time out (tied for a career high) and makes 80.7% of those tries.
Add Allisha Gray + Dream to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Liberty F Breanna Stewart vs. Dream: 31.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Stewart is piecing together 32.4 PRA each night. After a bit of a cold spell, that mark is 34.1 in her last seven games.
- The 31-year-old is thriving from floater range (3-10 feet) and long midrange (16 feet to the 3-point line), making a respective 50.8% and 53.8% of her shots there.
- “Stewie” is bringing down 9.1 rebounds per 36 minutes, marking the third time in the last four years she’s crossed over 9.0.
- Even in her 10th season, Stewart’s 27.1% usage rate puts her in the 93rd percentile.
Add Breanna Stewart + Liberty to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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With the postseason on the horizon, both Atlanta and New York still have plenty left to play for as they cap off their respective regular seasons. With the Dream eyeing a home-court edge and New York attempting to optimize its seed, Wednesday’s game carries plenty of importance.
Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Dream vs. Liberty picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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