Dolphins vs. Raiders Prediction, Spread, NFL Week 1 Picks – Sunday, September 13

The NFL’s Week 1 slate continues on Sunday afternoon with four 4:25 p.m. ET games, including the Miami Dolphins vs. the Las Vegas Raiders, from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The Raiders enter as 3.5-point favorites on the spread, returning a 1.56x payout if they win, per PrizePicks.

Both teams are breaking in new coaches and new QBs after combining for 10 wins last season and making wholesale changes in the offseason.  

Below, we’ll break down our Dolphins vs. Raiders prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game, featuring player projections from PrizePicks.

Make your Dolphins vs. Raiders prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Dolphins vs. Raiders Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

The Tua Tagovailoa-Mike McDaniel era is over in Miami as the Dolphins did a hard reset after a 7-10 season in 2025. Head coach Jeff Hafley takes over on the sideline, while QB Malik Willis, who served as the backup QB in Green Bay last year, takes over under center. 

After eating a record $99 million dead cap hit by cutting Tagovailoa, the Dolphins also cut WR Tyreek Hill and traded WR Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos. Per Spotrac, over 60% of the franchise's 2026 salary cap is tied up in dead money, the most of any team in NFL history. Miami also has the youngest team in the NFL, with a league-low 1,477 combined games played.

Willis gets his chance to be a full-time starter after making six starts in spot situations in Tennessee and Green Bay. He is an elite-level rusher, and in his one start of 2025, he threw for 288 yards, rushed for 60 yards, and accounted for 3 TDs with 0 INTs. 

The Raiders will look different this year as well, bringing in Klint Kubiak from Seattle to replace Pete Carroll as head coach, while using the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on Heisman Trophy winner, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza. 

Mendoza won’t start, becoming the third QB drafted #1 in the last decade to not start Game 1. The previous two were Baker Mayfield (Tyrod Taylor started) for the Browns in 2018 and Jared Goff (Case Keenum) in Los Angeles during the 2016 season. 

Kirk Cousins, who started Week 11 to Week 18 for the Falcons last year, will get the start. In his 2025 appearances, Cousins ranked 15th in adjusted EPA/play (0.081) among eligible QBs, per RBSDM.

He won’t have TE Brock Bowers, who is out with a knee injury, but he does get RB Ashton Jeanty entering season two. Jeanty led all rookies last season with 1,321 scrimmage yards. 

Dolphins vs. Raiders Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

The Raiders enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point favorites against the Dolphins, returning a 1.56x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.

Make your Dolphins vs. Raiders prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Dolphins vs. Raiders Prediction on Over/Under – 9/13/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Dolphins vs. Raiders prediction on the over/under for Sunday, September 13.

• The Dolphins are returning only 11.2% of their total wide receiver receiving yards from the 2025 season. Looking back at the combined 2024 and 2025 totals, that number drops even further to a minuscule 9.6%. 
• Miami ranked 26th in total offense last year, averaging 300.7 yards per game — its fewest since 2007. 
• The Fins have the youngest active roster with an average age of 25, the most undrafted players (18), the most rookies (14), and the fewest 30-year-olds with just two. 
• The Raiders were last with 14.2 points per game last year, last in total offense (245.2), last in rush offense (77.5), and 28th in pass offense (167.7). 
• The 14.2 points per game were the second-fewest in franchise history, only behind the 10.5 from 2006.
• Per FTN’s DVOA, Las Vegas has the 27th-ranked offense, while Miami is 21st. 
• Both teams were at the bottom in Adjusted EPA/Play, with the Raiders dead last at -0.192 and Miami 25th at -0.021.

Make your Dolphins vs. Raiders picks now for Sunday’s NFL game.

Dolphins vs. Raiders Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks in Week 1: 9/13/26

Here are the top Dolphins vs. Raiders picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, September 13. Today’s PrizePicks picks include RB De’Von Achane, QB Kirk Cousins, and RB Ashton Jeanty.

Dolphins RB De’Von Achane vs. Raiders: 68.5 Rush Yards

• Dolphins RB De’Vone Achane was Pro Football Focus’ second-highest-graded rusher in 2025 (91.0 PFF rushing grade). 
• His 5.7 yards per carry led the NFL among qualifying backs, as did his yards after contact per carry (4.11).
• The 2023 third-round draft pick accounted for 70.9% of the Dolphins' team snaps in 2025, the sixth-highest rate of any RB.
• Achane rushed for 70+ yards in six of his last seven games in 2025, including three straight games of 120+ yards. 
• His 1,350 yards last season were the fourth-most in the league and third-most in team history.

Add De’Von Achane to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty vs. Dolphins: 59.5 Rush Yards

• In his rookie season, Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty was 18th in the NFL with 975 rush yards, averaging 57.4 per game.
• Jeanty reached 60+ yards in eight of his 17 games. This included each of his final three games of the season, when he averaged 91.6 yards per game on 22.0 carries per game. 
• The 2025 sixth overall pick accounted for 77.6% of the Raiders' team snaps in 2025, the fourth-highest rate of any RB.
• According to Pro Football Reference, Jeanty forced 61 missed tackles and racked up 32 broken tackles, the second-most in the entire NFL.

Add Ashton Jeanty to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Raiders QB Kirk Cousins vs. Dolphins: 210.5 Pass Yards

• Raiders QB Kirk Cousins made eight starts for the Falcons last season and failed to hit 210 yards in six of them.  
• Cousins will have to make do without TE Brock Bowers, who accounted for 29.1% of the Raiders' total team receiving yards and 19.0% of total team touchdowns over the last two seasons. 
• One of the few bright spots for Miami in 2025 was its pass defense, which ranked 18th, allowing 216.4 yards per game. 
• While serving as the offensive coordinator in Seattle, Klint Kubiak called a rush-heavy offense, with 49.71% of plays being runs, the third-highest rate in the NFL. 

Add Kirk Cousins to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Dolphins vs. Raiders Picks on PrizePicks

Both the Dolphins and Raiders have new head coaches and new QBs to start the season. Which team will start the season 1-0 to give fans some hope after tough 2025 seasons? 

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Dolphins vs. Raiders picks on PrizePicks now for Week 1 and earn real money if you're right.

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