Everything is bigger in Texas, including the football rivalries, as the Cowboys and Texans battle for supremacy at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX in the Lone Star State.
Neither team is playing well early on, with the Cowboys at one win and the Texans winless. According to PrizePicks, the Texans are 2.5-point favorites on the spread for Sunday, October 4.
Below, we’ll break down our Cowboys vs. Texans prediction, followed by player projections via PrizePicks.
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Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 4 – Sunday, October 4
All stats are via NFL Next Gen Stats and PFF unless otherwise noted.
The Texans' defensive regression is puzzling. Last year they were the league’s top defensive unit, leading the NFL in points allowed per game (17.4), yards allowed per game (272.2), and EPA allowed per play (-0.18). They could defend both the run and the pass, and two players on the defensive front and four in the secondary earned Pro Bowl selections.
This season, the Texans’ defense is 19th in points allowed per game (25.0), 16th in yards allowed per game (325.3), and 17th in EPA allowed per game (-0.05). There hasn’t been much change from last year; Matt Burke remains the defensive coordinator, and the unit returned nine starters.
The Texans still lack a strong offense, adding to the challenge. Houston ranks 26th in points per game (18.0), and that's boosted by its 31 points vs. the Bills in Week 1.
QB C.J. Stroud’s decline from 2023, when he won Offensive Rookie of the Year, is noticeable. Over his last three seasons, he has averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, down from 8.2 yards in his rookie year.
If the Texans had a run game to balance the offense, it might help Stroud and the passing game. Last season, Houston had one of the league’s worst run games, ranking 28th in yards per carry. It hasn’t improved in 2026, with only 3.6 yards per carry (26th).
The signing of RB David Montgomery was an attempt to improve the run game, but he has underperformed, averaging 2.8 yards per carry. As a result, RB Woody Marks could get more work in the backfield.
Upgrading the defense was a priority for Dallas, and it made several moves after finishing last in points per game allowed (30.1) last season.
The Cowboys acquired Packers EDGE Rashan Gary and 49ers LB Dee Winters, paired with Ohio State S Caleb Downs, UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence, and Michigan LB Jaishawn Barham in the draft. Led by new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, the Cowboys may still be developing chemistry, ranking 25th in points allowed per game (27.3).
The Cowboys have plenty of defensive talent; while they are starting off slowly, they could improve as the season progresses — especially with newly acquired CB Joey Porter Jr. making his debut today.
Unlike the Texans, the Cowboys could have an offense that supports a below-average defense. QB Dak Prescott is among the league's most productive, ranking third in EPA per dropback (+0.30) and ninth in passer rating (107.2).
Prescott benefits from having two excellent WRs in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Lamb currently ranks third in receiving yards (309), and although Pickens has started slowly, he recorded 82 receiving yards last week.
Cowboys vs. Texans Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 4
The Texans are a 2.5-point road favorite with a 1.61x payout to win outright, compared to the Cowboys' 2.22x payout.
Here are the full payouts for the Cowboys vs. Texans on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and the over/under.
Make your Cowboys vs. Texans prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction on the Spread – 10/4/26
- The Texans will get back their top wide receiver, Nico Collins, who has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury.
- Houston has been strong against the run, ranking fourth in yards per carry allowed (3.5). Dallas has struggled in the run game, ranking 17th in yards per carry (4.1).
- Stroud protects the ball well and has not thrown an interception. Dallas is one of four teams that haven't recorded an interception.
- The Cowboys struggle to generate pressure, ranking 19th with a 22.2% pressure rate. Stroud excels when the defense is not pressuring him and is third with 675 passing yards.
- Houston’s offense is playing well at home, ranking seventh in total yards per game (377.5). Dallas ranks 30th in total yards allowed per game (387.0).
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Cowboys vs. Texans Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/4/26
Here are the top Cowboys vs. Texans picks to target on Sunday, October 4. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include QB Dak Prescott and WR Nico Collins.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott vs. Texans: 266.5 Pass Yards
- Prescott has been highly accurate this season, ranking ninth in completion percentage (69.5%). The Texans rank 19th in opponents' completion rate (66.7%).
- According to Sharp Football Analytics, the Texans use zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league (85.7%). Prescott shreds zone coverage by ranking second in EPA per dropback (+0.52) and third in DVOA (44.0%), per FTN Fantasy.
- Prescott could exceed his projection through volume, given that his 106 pass attempts are the 10th-most this season. The Texans are 17th in in pass attempts per game allowed (32.0).
- According to Sharp Football Analytics, the Texans sit 24th in yards per target allowed to wide receivers. This could lead to a big game for CeeDee Lamb, who ranks 18th in average depth of target.
Add Dak Prescott + Cowboys to your PrizePicks lineup.
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Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Cowboys: 72.5 Receiving Yards
- The Cowboys are dealing with a depleted secondary, as CB Cobie Durant is sidelined with a hamstring injury, and newly acquired CB Joey Porter Jr. is set to play his first game with the Cowboys.
- Dallas has allowed an opposing pass-catcher to finish with more than 72 receiving yards in two of three games this season.
- The Cowboys' pass defense has been among the worst this season, placing 30th in EPA allowed per pass (+0.34) and 31st in average target separation (4.0).
- Last year, Collins missed Week 8, returned in Week 9, and immediately produced with 75 receiving yards.
Add Nico Collins + Texans to your PrizePicks lineup.
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The Cowboys and Texans are struggling early in the season. Who could grab a much-needed win in Sunday's battle?
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