Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction, Spread, NFL Week 1 Picks for SNF – Sunday, September 13

The 2026 NFL season returns with a banger on Sunday Night Football with a heated NFC East rivalry, as the Dallas Cowboys travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Both teams are entering the season looking for a major turnaround after missing the playoffs in 2025. Dallas finished 7-9-1, while New York went 4-13 and will begin a new era under HC John Harbaugh.

Can Harbaugh begin his Giants tenure with a statement victory in front of the home crowd, or will Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' explosive offense spoil New York's 2026 debut? Dallas enters the matchup as a 3.5-point road favorite on PrizePicks.

Below, we'll break down our Cowboys vs. Giants prediction and picks for Sunday night's NFL game in Week 1, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Cowboys vs. Giants picks on PrizePicks now!

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Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for SNF – Sunday, September 13

The biggest reason for the Cowboys’ optimism this season lies in their explosive offense. QB Dak Prescott is coming off one of the best statistical seasons of his career, throwing for 4,552 yards (third) and 30 TDs while completing 67.3% of his passes.

The Dallas offense is headlined by a dynamic receiving duo in WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Lamb finished 2025 with 1,077 receiving yards despite appearing in only 14 games, while Pickens exploded for 1,429 yards and 9 TDs in his first season with the Cowboys. Prescott has arguably the league's most dangerous wideout pairing.

Dallas hopes a revamped defense can improve significantly after allowing an NFL-worst 30.1 points per game in 2025. The Cowboys brought in new DC Christian Parker and added significant talent, including this being DT Quinnen Williams' first full season, as well as edge rusher Von Miller and rookie S Caleb Downs.

New York, meanwhile, has QB Jaxson Dart entering his second NFL season as the starter after throwing for 2,272 yards, 15 TDs, and just 5 INTs as a rookie. Dart also added 487 yards and 9 TDs with his legs. Dart’s reckless style led to quite a few big hits on him last season, so it could be best for the Giants as a franchise to try to control his decision-making.

The Giants need a healthy return from WR Malik Nabers. Nabers is officially questionable after suffering an ACL injury last season, although he participated fully in practice throughout the week and looks like he will suit up. As the true alpha dog in this receiving corps, his availability is massive to New York's offensive ceiling.

The strength of this Giants team lies in its ferocious pass rush. This pass rush centers on DE Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux and LB Abdul Carter. Burns led the team with 16.5 sacks last season, while Abdul Carter had a top-10 pass-rush win rate as a rookie despite only totaling 4 sacks. Carter could be in for an impressive year two in Giants blue. 

Dallas holds a 78-48-2 advantage in the all-time series, while the Giants won the most recent meeting 34-17 in the 2025 season finale, when the Cowboys rested many of their starters.

Cowboys vs. Giants Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

Dallas enters Sunday night's game as a 3.5-point favorites against New York, via PrizePicks, returning a 1.56x payout with a victory to open the year.

Here are the full payouts for Cowboys vs. Giants on PrizePicks.

Make your Cowboys vs. Giants prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction on Spread – 9/13/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Cowboys vs. Giants prediction on the spread for Sunday night.

• I’m buying the Giants rebuild. This team went 1-7 in one-score games last season and will be under much more competent management in 2026.
• Dallas, perhaps because of being “America’s team,” tends to get overplayed, especially by the public. This can lead to weak against-the-spread records, as seen by its 7-10-0 mark last season, tied for the sixth-worst in football.
• The Cowboys' strength is their pass game, but the Giants were a run-funnel defense last year. New York ranked dead last in EPA/rush allowed (0.12) but was a competent 16th in EPA/pass (-0.02).
• HC John Harbaugh's run-first mentality gets a cushy Week 1 matchup against a Cowboys defense that struggled against ground attacks in 2025.
• The sad part is that was the “strength” of the Dallas defense, which was second-to-last in EPA/pass (0.20), trailing only the lowly New York Jets.

Lock in your Cowboys vs. Giants prediction on PrizePicks before Sunday's NFL game.

Cowboys vs. Giants Picks, Player Stats for SNF on PrizePicks: 9/13/26

Here are the top Cowboys vs. Giants picks to target on Sunday, September 13, on PrizePicks. Top SNF player picks include RBs Javonte Williams and Cam Skattebo.

Cowboys RB Javonte Williams vs. Giants: 74.5 Rush Yards

• Williams averaged 75.1 rushing yards per game last season and cleared this projection in nine of his 16 games, including four of his first five to begin the year.
• New York allowed 2,470 rushing yards and surrendered 5.3 yards per carry, the highest mark in the NFL.
• They could be even worse this season, as this Giants' defensive front lost their best run defender, DT Dexter Lawrence, during the offseason.
• The Cowboys also have a strong incentive to run the ball. New York's biggest defensive strength is its pass rush, so Dallas can neutralize some of that advantage by attacking the Giants between the tackles.

Add Javonte Williams to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Giants RB Cam Skattebo vs. Cowboys: 50.5 Rush Yards

• Skattebo's role was impressive before the injury. He accounted for 58.1% of the Giants' rushing attempts during Weeks 1-8, along with a 53.4% offensive snap share and a 67.0% red-zone snap share, according to Pro Football Focus.
• The matchup is a nice one to start. The Cowboys gave up 125.3 rushing yards per game last season and were ranked 28th in EPA/rush (0.05).
• New York's new offensive scheme is expected to feature heavier personnel and a power rushing attack, which would in turn give Skattebo plenty of opportunities to rack up some serious rushing yardage.
• The Giants also have a mobile QB in Jaxson Dart, meaning the Cowboys cannot simply sell out to stop Skattebo without accounting for the QB run game.
• Sometimes, the best defense you can play is actually good offense. If the Giants can run the ball and control the clock, they can keep the explosive Cowboys offense on the sideline.

Add Cam Skattebo to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Cowboys vs. Giants Picks for SNF on PrizePicks

Football is back, and the first Sunday Night Football game of the 2026 season brings an NFC East rivalry to MetLife Stadium.

The Cowboys enter the season with a potentially elite offense. They still have plenty to prove defensively, but the additions made during the offseason give the unit a chance to look much different in 2026. The Giants, meanwhile, are beginning the Harbaugh era with Dart entering his second season and revamped offensive and defensive schemes. Can they pull off a Week 1 upset in front of the raucous New York crowd?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Cowboys vs. Giants picks on PrizePicks Team Picks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NFL board, so you can make predictions on yards, touchdowns, and more! Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.

With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available on PrizePicks.

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into 2026.