The 2026 NFL season continues with an intriguing AFC Sunday Night Football contest in which the Kansas City Chiefs host the Indianapolis Colts at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. The Chiefs enter the game as a 5.5-point favorite with a 1.33x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.
After missing the playoffs in 2025, the Chiefs began the 2026 campaign with a 31-10 statement win against the Denver Broncos on Monday. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts were handed a 41-23 loss by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1.
Below, we'll break down our Colts vs. Chiefs prediction and picks for Sunday Night Football, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.
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Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Sunday Night Football
The Chiefs had reached the Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons coming into the 2025 campaign. As a result, expectations were incredibly high for QB Patrick Mahomes and company as they attempted to avenge a Super Bowl LIX loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
However, for the first time since 2014, Kansas City failed to qualify for the NFL postseason and finished 6-11. Mahomes suffered a torn ACL late in mid-December, which ended his season.
The Chiefs put the 2025 season in their rearview mirror with a dominant win against the Broncos to open the 2026 campaign. The team leaned heavily on offseason signee RB Kenneth Walker III, who totaled 191 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs.
The stellar rushing attack let Kansas City put less pressure on Mahomes in his first game back after a major injury. The star QB tallied a rushing TD in the first quarter, showcasing his mobility is still alive and well.
Meanwhile, the Colts missed the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season in 2025 despite starting 7-1. In early December, QB Daniel Jones tore his Achilles tendon and missed the rest of the season.
In the offseason, Jones signed a two-year, $88 million contract to remain with the team after initially receiving the transition tag.
The Colts’ 2026 season didn’t start strong like last year. Indianapolis surrendered 506 yards of total offense to Baltimore in the season opener and simply could not slow down QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry all afternoon.
Offensively, RB Jonathan Taylor had a strong performance, logging 98 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per carry and 2 TDs. His rushing yards were the ninth-most among NFL RBs throughout Week 1, and he also recorded a 0.14 EPA/rush (13th), per Sumer Sports.
Jones struggled to throw the ball downfield, averaging just 5.4 yards per completion on the day. Veteran WR Alec Pierce paced the team with 4 receptions for 61 yards, while TE Tyler Warren caught Jones’ lone passing TD.
Colts vs. Chiefs Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 20
The Chiefs enter Sunday night's game as 5.5-point favorites against the Colts, via PrizePicks, returning a 1.33x payout with an outright win.
Here are the full payouts for Colts vs. Chiefs on PrizePicks.
Make your Colts vs. Chiefs prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction on Spread for Sunday Night Football – 9/20/26
Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Colts vs. Chiefs prediction on the spread for Sunday night.
- The Chiefs registered the second-most rushing yards (220.0) and a 0.19 EPA/rush (second) in Week 1.
- The Colts allowed a 0.18 EPA/rush against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. Ravens RB Derrick Henry carried the ball 24 times for 144 yards (6.0 yards per carry) and 3 TDs.
- Indianapolis posted a -0.26 EPA/play and totaled just 251 yards of total offense against the Ravens.
- Colts QB Daniel Jones had just a 6.52 average depth of target in Week 1, which ranked 28th among NFL QBs.
- The Chiefs tallied 392 yards against the Broncos in Week 1, which ranked ninth in the league.
- The Colts are just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games and failed to cover a 2.5-point spread vs. the Ravens a week ago.
Lock in your Colts vs. Chiefs prediction on PrizePicks before Sunday Night Football.
Colts vs. Chiefs Picks, Player Stats for SNF on PrizePicks: 9/20/26
Here are the top Colts vs. Chiefs picks to target on Sunday, September 20, on PrizePicks. Top SNF player picks include RB Kenneth Walker III and TE Tyler Warren.
Colts TE Tyler Warren vs. Chiefs: 42.5 Rec Yards
- Warren caught 3 of his 5 targets for 13 yards and a TD against the Ravens in Week 1.
- The former Penn State standout ranked 10th among tight ends in routes run (30).
- Warren finished second on the team in receiving yards (817) and receptions (76) last season.
- Kansas City allowed 1,034 receiving yards to tight ends in 2025, which was the ninth-most in the NFL.
Pick Tyler Warren + Colts to win on PrizePicks!
Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker III vs. Colts: 83.5 Rush Yards
- Walker carried the ball 23 times for 173 yards (7.5 yards per carry) and a TD against the Broncos in Week 1.
- The former Michigan State Spartan recorded a 0.44 EPA/rush last week, ranking third among all ball carriers.
- Walker rushed for at least 84 yards in four of his last five games, dating back to the 2025 regular season.
- The former second-round pick led the league in yards after contact (146) in Week 1.
Pick Kenneth Walker III + Chiefs to win on PrizePicks!
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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Colts: 221.5 Pass Yards
- In a game where the Chiefs leaned heavily on RB Kenneth Walker III, Mahomes completed 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards and 2 TDs against the Broncos.
- The Colts allowed 247.9 passing yards per game in 2025, the second-highest rate among NFL defenses.
- Mahomes registered a 12.12% scramble rate in Week 1 (eighth), which should give him more time to throw.
- Indianapolis surrendered a 0.33 EPA/pass against Baltimore (27th).
Pick Patrick Mahomes + Chiefs to win on PrizePicks!
Make Colts vs. Chiefs Picks on PrizePicks
The Chiefs began their season with an impressive win against the Broncos. Will Kansas City keep its winning ways alive when it hosts Indianapolis at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday Night Football?
Don't wait until kickoff — make your Colts vs. Chiefs picks on PrizePicks Team Picks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NFL board, so you can make predictions on yards, touchdowns, and more! Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.
With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available on PrizePicks.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, futures, and more all the way through Super Bowl LXI.
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