Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction, NFL Picks: Mahomes Eyes MVP Hopeful Jonathan Taylor

AP Photo/John Amis
AP Photo/John Amis

The Colts vs. Chiefs, AFC teams in the thick of the playoff hunt, meet on Sunday in Kansas City in a game that could shape the NFL playoff picture. What is arguably the most intriguing game on the Sunday NFL slate features K.C. QB Patrick Mahomes tangling with his Indy counterpart, Daniel Jones and Jones' backfield buddy and the NFL’s leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor.

The AFC battle kicks off Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.

Below, we'll break down our Colts vs. Chiefs prediction and Sunday picks for Week 12, including the top player picks on PrizePicks real money NFL game, including including Colts QB Daniel Jones and RB Jonathan Taylor and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.

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Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction, NFL Picks

The Colts and Chiefs meet for the first time since 2022 and only for the third time in the regular season in the last 10 years. Indianapolis took the last two regular season matchups (2019, 2022), while the Chiefs won a playoff matchup following the 2018 season.

Indianapolis Colts Preview

  • The Colts are 8-2, their best start since starting 14-0 under QB Peyton Manning in 2009. The Colts went on to lose the Super Bowl following that season.
  • Indy leads the NFL in points (32.1), total yards (396.3), yards per play (6.41), and rush yards per play (5.3). 
  • Their pass offense (251.6) ranks third in the NFL.
  • The offense in Indy is also at the top of DVOA, ahead of K.C., the Rams, and Bills.

Kansas City Chiefs Preview

  • During the 2023 and 2024 season, the Chiefs won an NFL-record 17 consecutive one-score games. This season, the Chiefs are 0-5 in one-score games.
  • The Chiefs offense has been hot and cold this season with three games of 400+ yards and four sup-350-yard games.
  • The Chiefs are eighth in the league, averaging 25.4 points per game and fourth in scoring defense, holding opponents to 18.1 points per game. 
  • K.C. trails Denver by 3.5 games in the AFC West with seven weeks left. The Chiefs have won the last nine AFC West titles. 

Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction, NFL Picks

Here are three Colts vs. Chiefs player picks for Week 12 for PrizePicks real money NFL game, including Colts QB Daniel Jones and RB Jonathan Taylor and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.

Pick More or Less on these projections on PrizePicks — plus thousands more — to win real money this NFL season.

Colts QB Daniel Jones Projection vs. Chiefs: 241.5 passing yards

  • Colts QB Daniel Jones is enjoying his best start to a season in his career. He has passed for 250+ yards in four straight games and in seven of 10 games this season. 
  • Jones has tossed for 2,659 yards, third in the NFL behind the Chargers' Justin Herbert and Dallas' Dak Prescott. 
  • The former Giants' passer rating is 101.6, ninth-best in the NFL. Jones' best passer rating for a season in his career is 92.5 with the 2022 Giants. 
  • The Colts QB has thrown 1+ TD in all 10 games this season, with 2+ in five of them.

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor Projection vs. Chiefs: 87.5 rushing yards

  • Colts RB Jonathan Taylor scored 3 additional TDs in Week 10 vs. the Falcons and has 13 total TDs over the past six games. 
  • Taylor’s 1,139 rushing yards, 15 rushing TDs, 6.0 yards per rush, and 17 total TDs all lead the NFL. 
  • The MVP hopeful has scampered for 90+ yards in six of his 10 games, with five 100+ games, most in the NFL. 
  • The Jersey native is on pace for 1,963 rushing yards, the tenth-most in a single season in NFL history. 

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Projection vs. Colts: 271.5 Pass Yards

  • After throwing for 14 passing TD from Week 4-8, Mahomes has one total TD over the last two weeks, both losses. 
  • Mahomes has passed for 250+ yards in seven straight games and in eight of 10 this season. The last time Mahomes had 250+ in eight straight games was over the 2021 regular season, postseason and first game of 2022, when he did it in nine straight. 
  • The former MVP's' 18 TD passes ties him for seventh in the NFL.
  • The K.C. QB’s 95.9 passer rating ranks 14th in the league. 
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Can the AFC South-leading Colts stay tied for the top spot in the AFC? Or will the Chiefs keep their playoff hopes alive with a much-needed victory?

As the NFL season enters its 12th week, there's no better place to get real money action with your NFL predictions than on PrizePicks.

There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NFL board, so you can make predictions on whatever you'd like — from yards to field goals. Just pick at least two players and pick More or Less on their stats to build your Lineup on PrizePicks.

Check out the Playbook throughout the NFL season for more NFL predictions for your PrizePicks and NFL DFS Lineups.

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about the author

David Bearman spent 18 years with ESPN in their Stats & Information Department and overseeing their betting content. From 2023-25, he served as Chief Content Officer of Pro Football Network, overseeing all content, including coverage of Super Bowls 58 and 59. He is also the Founder of Betting with Bearman, a 3x a week betting newsletter and weekly podcast on Bleav Podcast Network.

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