Colorado State vs. Texas State Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Thursday, October 15

It may not be the Pac-12 many fans are used to, but it’s the Pac-12 we’ve got as the 2026 season continues. The final bout in Thursday’s three-game college football slate sees Colorado State hit the road to take on Texas State at 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.

Ahead of the clash at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas, the Bobcats are considerable 14.5-point favorites on PrizePicks. Which one of these 2-3 (0-1 in conference) programs can get back on track on Thursday?

Below, we'll break down our Colorado State vs. Texas State prediction and picks for Thursday’s college football game, including the spread, over/under, and winner on PrizePicks.

Make your Colorado State vs. Texas State prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Colorado State vs. Texas State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, October 15

Texas State enters Thursday’s game as a 14.5-point home favorite against Colorado State, returning a 1.14x payout on PrizePicks if it wins outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Colorado State vs. Texas State game on PrizePicks.

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Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

With the Jay Norvell regime in the books, Colorado State is looking to correct the course of its program in 2026 with Jim Mora Jr. at the helm. Mora and Co. had their work cut out for them after sitting 116th in returning offensive production, leading to the QB duo of Hauss Hejny and K’saan Farrar being looked at as potential leaders in a new era. 

Following consecutive wins to open the year, a clash with #11 BYU started a three-game skid for the Rams. CSU has gotten outscored by a combined 62 points in the last few weeks and comes out of the bye hoping the duo of RBs Mel Brown (409 yards this season) and Durell Robinson (266) is enough to get the job done.

On the opposite sideline, Texas State returns a well-experienced offense and maintained familiarity in the process for HC G.J. Kinne. Kinne and Co. know nothing but bowl games and victories, so this year’s 2-3 start comes with plenty of adversity.

The offense is fueled by QB Brad Jackson (323.5 Pass + Rush Yards projection on PrizePicks) and standout WRs Chris Dawn Jr. (304 yards in 2026) and Beau Sparks (67.5 Rec Yards projection on PrizePicks). RB Torrance Burgess Jr.’s 614 yards on 84 attempts have also helped tremendously. 

Defensively, DB Jayden Bradley (37 tackles) and LBs Terrence Cooks II (3.5 TFLs) and Ayden Jones (3.0 TFLs) chip in. Unfortunately, it’s only led to the 127th-ranked scoring defense (33.2 PPG) out of 138 FBS schools in 2026.

This contest comes on the heels of some high drama, as Mora dismissed DC Tyson Summers after he left mid-game in the last outing. On the TXST side, a blown 14-point halftime lead vs. San Diego State pre-bye killed the momentum of back-to-back triumphs by a combined 67 points against North Texas and Incarnate Word. 

In somewhat of a rarity, this is the very first matchup between these two programs. 

On the injury front, Colorado State is without Hejny as its first-stringer due to a nagging hamstring injury, so it’ll be the Farrar show again. Farrar carries a PrizePicks projection of 232.5 Pass Yards. WR RJ Vick isn’t likely to suit up. 

For Texas State, freshman RB Davian Jackson is out. Look to a steady diet of Burgess, whose projection on PrizePicks in this one is 119.5 Rush Yards. 

Colorado State vs. Texas State Prediction on Spread – 10/15/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Colorado State vs. Texas State prediction on the spread for Thursday, October 15’s game. 

• Texas State is 2-1 against the spread as a home favorite in 2026 and 3-3 in such a scenario last year. Colorado State is 0-0-1 ATS as a road underdog after going 2-3 ATS in 2025. 
• The Bobcats are no strangers to dominating time of possession and limiting the opposition’s chances, evidenced by their 54.19% TOP to CSU’s 46.77% clip.
• Colorado State might lose the battle of the trenches in a hurry. Via Game on Paper, CSU sits in the respective 24th and 0th percentiles for line yards on offense and defense compared to TXST at the 61st and 96th. 
• College Football Data reveals that CSU is tied for 111th in stuff rate on offense at 20.4%. Just 13.6% of Texas State’s plays get stuffed, which is good for 24th. 
• Texas State’s defense lets opponents gain 53.3% of available yards, per Fourth and Short, but Colorado State is somehow significantly worse at 59.4% (eighth-highest in FBS). 
• The Bobcats’ Jackson-led passing attack occupies the 90th percentile for success rate and the 82nd for yards per dropback. New co-DC Kenny McClendon engineers a group that’s one of the sport’s worst in both. CSU is dead last in passing success rate ceded at 61.3%. 
• CSU lets its foes score on 88.24% of red-zone possessions; TXST is at a still bad, albeit markedly better, 72.73% split.

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It’s safe to say the 2026 collegiate campaign hasn’t gone how Colorado State or Texas State had planned thus far. With that said, Thursday presents a massive opportunity for either side to right some wrongs and snap out of a funk with a big-time win. Will it be the Rams or Bobcats who manage to get the job done?

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Colorado State vs. Texas State picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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