We enter Week 8 of the college football season, right in the thick of the conference races, with games now on almost every night of the week. After three games Tuesday, one Wednesday, and three more on Thursday, we're highlighting two of the five Friday games with upset potential.
Last week, we nailed three of the four upsets in the two upset columns, with Washington’s win over Purdue on Friday and Saturday’s sweep of Tennessee over Alabama and Kentucky over Oklahoma, making it six straight weeks (and 10 upsets total) that have hit in this column.
Friday night’s slate is a mix of conference action, which includes the ACC hosting two games, the American having one in Tulsa, a battle near the top of the Mountain West in Wyoming, and a battle of New England out in Connecticut. For tonight, we are going to focus on an ACC Championship Game rematch and a battle in the Mountain West.
Below, we’ll break down our upset picks for Friday’s CFB games, including Duke vs. Virginia and Air Force vs. Wyoming, with spreads and payouts on PrizePicks.
Make college football predictions and upset picks today on PrizePicks!
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Week 8 College Football Predictions, Upset Picks – Friday, October 23
This Friday's college football slate has some interesting underdogs and spots, but two games stand out as our favorite college football upset spots on Friday, October 23.
Duke, last year’s ACC champions, is in Virginia as a small underdog to try and knock off the Cavaliers again at 7:00 p.m. on ESPN, and Air Force meets Wyoming in a Mountain West Conference showdown at 9:00 p.m. on CW.
The payouts listed below indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry pays out $200. The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks.
Duke vs. Virginia: CFB Upset Watch for Friday
Start Time: 7:00 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN
When these two teams last met, it was in Charlotte with a College Football Playoff spot on the line — sort of. Had Virginia won, it would’ve gone to the dance, but Duke won the ACC title and still missed out because the ACC didn't qualify for an automatic berth.
The rematch in Charlottesville features two teams that are not playing like they will make a return to the ACC title game, but it is ripe for a small upset.
Duke has lost its last two games by a combined seven points after starting the season 4-0, including a big upset win at Illinois and a blowout of Stanford to open ACC play. In both losses, to North Carolina and Georgia Tech, the Blue Devils had more total yards, won the time-of-possession battle, and held fourth-quarter leads.
Despite those losses, the Blue Devils have been the more efficient team overall, ranking 50th nationally in net adjusted EPA per play, compared with Virginia at 82nd, per Game on Paper.
Virginia got off to a great start with a blowout of NC State but has not done much since, losing to Florida State by 31 and SMU by 10 last week.
The Cavaliers are a rush-first team, running the ball more than 40 times per game. Duke’s rush defense has been exceptional at limiting opponents on the ground, allowing just 107.6 yards per game, which ranks 24th nationally. Compounding that, when they do go to pass, the Cavaliers have allowed sacks on approximately 11.5% of dropbacks.
Meanwhile, the Blue Devils average 209.5 rushing yards per game (17th in FBS) and 5.4 yards per carry (18th), led by RB Nate Sheppard and his 820 yards. The Cavaliers' defense ranks 117th in defensive EPA per rush and 130th in defensive rushing success rate.
Duke has already shown it can win as a road underdog with the big win at Illinois, and its advantages in rushing efficiency and run defense give the Blue Devils a strong opportunity to pull off another upset Friday night.
Make your Duke vs. Virginia picks on PrizePicks now.
Air Force vs. Wyoming Upset Watch for Friday
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET | TV: CW
Over in the Mountain West Conference, Air Force and Wyoming, each with one conference loss, meet in a battle to stay in the conference championship race. Air Force enters on a four-game winning streak, while Wyoming has won three of four, so both teams are looking to stay hot.
The Falcons don’t try to fool you as they flat-out run it down your throats, rushing for more than 400 yards in each of the last two games, while sitting second in the nation at 343.0 rush yards per game.
The offense has needed to be one-dimensional since starting QB Liam Szarka suffered a season-ending injury in Week 5. Backup Evan Medders has completed just 2 passes over his two games, so Wyoming will know what to expect.
The Cowboys seek the upset behind QB Tyler Hughes, who accounted for 379 yards of offense and 4 rushing TDs last week vs. Northern Illinois. Wyoming is 4-0 this season when Hughes completes at least 67% of his passes.
The Falcons have allowed opponents to score on 13 of 17 red-zone possessions (76.5%). Wyoming has an opportunity to capitalize if Hughes can sustain drives and reach scoring territory.
If Wyoming can slow down Air Force's rushing attack and sustain drives of its own, the Cowboys can use their home-field advantage to keep this close and potentially pull off the conference upset.
Make your Air Force vs. Wyoming picks on PrizePicks now.
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Make Friday College Football Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Which ACC team between Duke and Virginia will end a recent slide and stay within striking distance of a return trip to Charlotte? Can Wyoming pull off the home upset and stay near the top of the Mountain West Conference?
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