Saturday, October 10, is locked and loaded with 46 college football games on the schedule. Noon games get underway with #7 Indiana visiting Nebraska, and later, the Red River Rivalry between #1 Texas and Oklahoma, paired with #21 UCLA vs. #13 Oregon, kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET. But tonight’s primetime slate holds the highest stakes for college football predictions today.
Week 6’s top college football game is #2 Georgia vs. #6 Alabama, featuring Heisman contenders, national championship contenders, and more. Plus, #10 LSU visits Kentucky in a dangerous road environment.
Below, we’ll zoom in on primetime games, highlighting our top college football predictions today for PrizePicks.
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Best College Football Predictions Today: Spreads, Schedule for Saturday, October 10
We’ve mentioned the stakes for SEC clashes under the lights, led by #10 LSU vs. Kentucky and #2 Georgia vs. #6 LSU. We’ll dive into those two matchups plus an intriguing Big Ten collision between #19 USC and Penn State.
But first, here’s every Power Four school in action for games scheduled at 7:00 p.m. ET or later, including how to watch each matchup and the point spread via PrizePicks.
Now, it’s time to dig into our college football predictions today. We’ll analyze winner payouts, spreads, and over/unders, all found on the CFB board on PrizePicks.
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#10 LSU vs. Kentucky Prediction on Spread for CFB Week 6
Time, How to Watch: 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Kentucky is enjoying its first 4-1 start under a first-year head coach since Bear Bryant did it in 1946. That’s right, the same Bear Bryant who went on to win six national championships at Alabama, perhaps sitting behind only Nick Saban on the all-time coaches list.
No, I’m not saying Kentucky head coach Will Stein is the next Bear Bryant, but the Wildcats could finally be relevant. They’ve had two double-digit win seasons since 1978, coming in 2018 and 2021. Further, UK finished in the final AP Top 25 Poll twice since 1985.
That gives a glimpse of how much this game likely means to Cats fans, with #10 LSU and Lane Kiffin visiting Lexington tonight. For many, this will likely be the best environment seen at a Kentucky football game, adding to the challenge of LSU being favored by 9.5 points.
The Tigers are still battling injuries, with TE Trey’Dez Green, LB Whit Weeks, EDGE Jordan Ross, and S Dashawn Spears all out tonight. Weeks, who is a captain and wore the green dot on defense, is out indefinitely from a fractured leg.
Weeks suffered the injury in a 35-6 win vs. Texas A&M, and since LSU has faced McNeese (63-14 win). This long-term injury could change a defense that’s been one of the nation’s best allowing only 15.5 PPG (90th percentile) and 3.6 yards per play (100th percentile).
The run defense has given up 1.7 yards per carry (first nationally), but Kentucky poses a real challenge with a 52.2% rush success rate that sits fourth nationally, per Game on Paper. The ground game is the straw that stirs Will Stein’s offense, proven by a 53.45% rush success rate (59th percentile).
LSU ranks 26th out of 138 FBS teams for rush success rate allowed (38.5%), compared to a 29.7% pass success rate allowed (second). The run game could be the angle for success, and the Wildcats allow only a 15.4% stuff rate (67th percentile) and post 3.4 line yards per carry (80th percentile), which measures an offense line’s effectiveness, per Fourth and Short.
Kentucky enjoys a +1.3 turnover margin per game (91st percentile), easily surpassing LSU’s 0.0 average (59th percentile). The Cats have an angle for dictating the tempo of this game by running the rock and winning the turnover battle, and that could keep it close behind a rowdy crowd.
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#19 USC vs. Penn State Prediction on Winner for CFB Week 6
Time, How to Watch: 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
The #19 USC Trojans are tasked with weathering the storm in one of the toughest atmospheres in all of college football — a White Out, at night, at Penn State.
Despite opening Big Ten play with 24-20 and 34-13 losses vs. Wisconsin and Northwestern, the Nittany Lions enter this game as slight favorites due to the home advantage. However, Penn State was favored by 9.5 points vs. Wisconsin and 2.5 vs. Northwestern — a game it lost by 21 points!
Frankly, that 34-13 final vs. Northwestern looks better than what it was, with the Nittany Lions trailing 31-7 entering the fourth quarter. PSU was torched for 506 yards, 413 rushing yards, and 7.5 yards per carry. That was a week after allowing 355 total yards to Wisconsin, leading to a 24-20 loss despite winning the turnover battle 3-1.
Paired with defensive woes, Penn State has posted 4.1 yards per play on offense over two Big Ten contests. For context, that would rank 133rd across 138 FBS teams this season.
USC hasn’t been great either, yielding 31.8 PPG over its last four; Lincoln Riley still hasn’t figured out his defense. However, perhaps the one unshakeable area of this matchup? The Trojan offense that racks up 37.3 PPG (91st percentile) and 6.6 yards per play (88th percentile).
The Trojans typically air it out with a 49.53% pass-play rate (58th percentile) behind QB Jayden Maiava — who is projected for 253.5 pass yards for tonight on PrizePicks. But USC is also efficient on the ground with a 47.6% rush success rate (76th percentile).
This unit may look to run more often against a Penn State defense that allowed 413 rush yards a week ago. Further, a successful ground attack could lead to long, methodical drives for the Trojans, helping quiet a daunting White Out crowd.
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#2 Georgia vs. #6 Alabama Prediction on Over/Under for CFB Week 6
Time, How to Watch: 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Finally, we get to the big one. Tonight’s #2 Georgia vs. #6 Alabama game could become one of the season’s highlights. The Bulldogs have the second-shortest payout to win the national championship (5.26x) on PrizePicks, and the Crimson Tide’s +0.41 adjusted EPA per play ranks second nationally.
The over/under draws attention, especially with Hurricane Isaias bringing inclement weather. The storm hit the Gulf Coast on Friday, and Tuscaloosa is expected to get rain throughout the day, with a 49% chance of rain tonight, per AccuWeather.
A little rain never destroyed a game script, but what about wind? Tonight could feature wind gusts up to 17 mph, surely impacting each offense’s downfield passing attack.
This could be the biggest factor in driving few points. Remember, these are two of America’s best defenses. Georgia allows 16.0 PPG (88th percentile) and 4.2 yards per play (93rd percentile), compared to Alabama’s D giving up 20.8 PPG (72nd percentile) and 4.8 yards per play (77th percentile).
The Crimson Tide’s numbers seem to be a step down, but they’ve faced better competition. Their -0.24 net adjusted EPA per play allowed (93rd percentile) suggests positive regression is ahead.
If strong winds are impacting the passing games, running the ball becomes critical. However, Georgia yields a 31.1% rush success rate (97th percentile) and 2.3 yards per carry (96th percentile), compared to Bama ceding a 34.3% rush success rate (94th percentile) and 2.5 YPC (95th percentile).
Leaning on the ground would mean running into the teeth of run defenses that simply do not budge. That’s further supported by Alabama allowing only 2.0 line yards per run (98th percentile), slightly ahead of Georgia’s 2.2 (94th percentile).
Frankly, if the weather is truly impacting downfield passes, I don’t see how either offense finds much success. The rush defenses are elite, and a lack of vertical threats would allow each defensive coordinator to stack the box and look to take away short passes.
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A pair of must-see SEC matchups under the lights headlines our college football predictions today, while USC’s offense looks to quiet the Penn State White Out in CFB Week 6.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make Week 6 college football picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more all the way through the 2026 College Football Playoff.
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