We are a third of the way through the 2026 college football season, with games now on almost every night of the week. After plenty of mid-major action earlier this week from Tuesday to Thursday, we're highlighting two of the five Friday games with upset potential — both in Power Four conferences.
Last week, we nailed Kentucky’s outright upset of South Carolina, making it four straight weeks (= — and five upsets total — that have hit in this column. And Navy was right there with Air Force in the fourth quarter.
Friday night’s slate has two ranked teams in action as a warm-up to Saturday, with two ranked vs. ranked matchups, including a top-six battle in Alabama. On Friday night, we head to the ACC and Big Ten for a couple of conference battles, including a game where the ranked team is the underdog.
Below, we’ll break down our college football predictions and upset picks in Friday's games, honing in on Florida State vs. Louisville to kick off the night and #20 Iowa vs. Washington, including spreads and payouts on PrizePicks Team Picks.
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Week 6 College Football Predictions, Upset Picks – Friday, October 9
This Friday college football slate has some interesting underdogs and spots, but two games stand out as our favorite college football upset spots on Friday, October 9. These underdogs have a payout higher than 2x to win outright on PrizePicks as of writing.
Florida State, coming off its biggest win of the season, hits the road to struggling Louisville at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. Meanwhile, #20 Iowa, off a loss at Ohio State, tries to rebound at Washington at 9:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
The payouts listed below indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct on PrizePicks; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry pays out $200. The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks.
Florida State vs. Louisville: CFB Upset Watch for Friday
Start Time: 7:00 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN
Narratives can change on a dime in college football. Florida State looked dead and buried after back-to-back losses to SMU and Alabama, and rumors circled around Head Coach Mike Norvell‘s job status.
Then the Seminoles blew out Central Arkansas and Virginia, 72-14 combined. The Central Arkansas win was expected, while they were an underdog to Virginia.
Meanwhile, Louisville lost on a walk-off field goal to #9 Ole Miss, then had impressive wins over Villanova and SMU, before losing to Wake Forest and NC State the last two weeks. The last two weeks have also shifted the narrative on the Cardinals' chances in the ACC.
Starting with FSU, the defense — which allowed 38.5 points per game in losses to SMU and Alabama — stepped up with 10 sacks and 12 tackles for loss vs. Virginia. Per Game on Paper, Virginia had successful plays on just 33% of its snaps against FSU.
The Seminoles also generated havoc plays on 26% of Virginia's offensive snaps. Following its 10-sack performance against Virginia, FSU jumped 80 spots nationally in sack rate (101st to 21st), 43 spots in yards allowed per carry (84th to 41st) and 30 spots in defensive EPA/play (124th to 94th).
Florida State QB Ashton Daniels set a school record with five rushing TDs last week, rushing for a career-best 136 yards and showing efficiency passing, completing 12 of 19 attempts. Florida State's offense has improved from 6.1 yards per play in its losses to 7.8 in its wins.
Louisville's issues start on defense, which is why it has lost its last two ACC contests. Louisville doesn't create negative plays on defense, ranking 15th of 17 ACC teams in havoc rate (13.2%) and 88th nationally in net EPA per play, per Fourth Down data.
The offensive production has dropped off as well, going from 46 points and 515 yards per game the first three weeks to 27.5 points and 442.0 yards per game over the last two. Running the ball has been inconsistent, as the Cardinals ran for 75 yards in the Wake Forest loss and 231 in the NC State loss.
If Florida State is going to end its 12-game road/neutral-site losing streak, it'll be the improved pass rush getting to the Louisville offense and preventing explosive plays.
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Iowa vs. Washington: CFB Upset Watch for Friday
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET | TV: FOX
This is a tough spot for an Iowa team that just lost at home vs. Ohio State and now has to travel on short rest to the Pacific Northwest to face Washington. However, the Huskies have been a disappointment this season, and Iowa can’t afford another loss if it wants to stay in the College Football Playoff hunt.
Even after allowing 31 points and 484 yards to Ohio State, the Hawkeyes' defense remains one of the best in football, ranking seventh in defensive EPA/play. It now goes up against a struggling Washington offense that ranks 107th in offensive EPA/play.
Washington is also 124th nationally in third-and-fourth-down offensive success rate, which sets up as a favorable matchup for the Iowa defense.
Washington, led by QB Demond Williams Jr., is 3-2, but those three wins came against Eastern Washington (FCS), Utah State (non-Power 4), and Washington State (non-Power 4). The two losses came in Big Ten play, where Washington's offense has averaged just 299.0 yards per game, down 135.7 yards from its first three games.
Iowa QB Hank Brown was injured in the Ohio State game and is questionable to play tonight, but the offense hasn't been the one powering the Hawkeyes. Iowa’s top-10 defense (ninth in scoring) should be able to keep this one close and stick around the spread — if not pull off the outright upset.
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Make Friday College Football Predictions Today on PrizePicks
There are five college football matchups on Friday night to get us ready for a full slate of action on Saturday.
Can Florida State continue its defensive turnaround and win away from Tallahassee for the first time since 2023? Can Iowa rebound from a disappointing home loss to Ohio State and get a win out West?
You can make your college football predictions on every game of the 2026 season on PrizePicks — including teams to pull off upsets and dogs to cover the spread.
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Plus, ick More or Less on player stats, or pick game winners, spreads, and totals to earn real money if you're right! In eligible states, you can combine Team + Player picks for bigger payouts.
Stay locked in on Playbook for college football picks, predictions, and news all season long.
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