Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez Prediction, Pick for UFC 329

While last month’s White House card had the top-end talent to claim “card of the year” status, UFC 329 has depth all throughout its preliminary action as we celebrate “International Fight Week."

One of the featured early fights has former bantamweight champion Cody “No Love” Garbrandt — who is quietly a winner in three of his last five — taking on Houston boxing specialist Adrian Yanez. If you love hands being thrown with bad intentions, this 135-pound clash is for you.

This preliminary bout on UFC 329: Holloway vs. McGregor 2 is expected to start around 7:40 p.m. ET on Paramount+, depending on when the other preliminary fights conclude.

Below, we'll highlight our Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez prediction for PrizePicks, followed by a pick for UFC 329.

Make your UFC 329 picks on winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks!

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez Prediction, Preview for UFC 329

Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Cody Garbrandt: 3.70x to win ($100 pays $370)

• Garbrandt by KO/TKO: 7.69x
• Garbrandt by Submission: 33.33x
• Garbrandt by Decision: 6.25x

Adrian Yanez: 1.23x ($100 pays $123)

• Yanez by KO/TKO: 1.85x
• Yanez by Submission: 33.33x
• Yanez by Decision: 3.44x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

One of the most difficult aspects to watch of combat sports is the fall from the top of the mountain, and Cody Garbrandt’s has been both cruel and spectacular.

Garbrandt channeled 25 minutes of brilliance to defeat Dominick Cruz in 2016, but heated brawls with ex-teammate TJ Dillashaw took a toll on the champion’s chin after consecutive knockouts:

“No Love” tumbled from the rankings, but even now, all seven of his UFC setbacks came to fighters currently ranked or ranked at the time of their bout. He’s defeated all others with a style predicated on speed, precision, and unbelievable knockout power that still shows through a 2.24% knockdown rate (KD%).

Stylistically, he and Adrian Yanez are very similar, which is why this matchup is so captivating. At 32, Yanez is the version with slightly less wear and tear, but he hasn’t achieved the same level of success as Garbrandt. Every attempt to enter the rankings was stonewalled:

Nonetheless, Yanez has built a cult-like following thanks to his commitment to the hands and his own top-shelf power (1.62%).

Neither of these fighters is a grappler by trade, so projections look at Yanez’s age, attrition, striking volume, and recent output and see a worthy favorite. However, counting out Garbrandt — who just found a way to win in a fight where he was left vomiting into a bucket — could prove foolish.

Find UFC 329 Predictions + Picks for every main card fight here!

How Cody Garbrandt Wins vs. Adrian Yanez at UFC 329

The most critical detail Cody Garbrandt, 35, has to get right is his trust in himself, his skills, and his chin.

Since a 2021 knockout loss to Kai Kara-France, Garbrandt has attempted fewer than 55 significant strikes in five of his last six fights. There’s an unwillingness to engage that has turned several of them into staring contests that Garbrandt, with a big moment or rare takedown, has stolen.

I still see an athlete who is lightning quick. His 58% striking defense is excellent on paper. However, his striking success rate (-0.81 SSR) proved he watched his opponent work to avoid truly punishing shots from Dillashaw, Kara-France, and Munhoz.

It’s just not a realistic worry to justify shelling up to the extent he has. He hasn’t been knocked down since that Kara-France bout. His chin is still pretty fresh. Yanez has shown durability issues both upstairs and to the legs, so he’s got to be willing to put volume out there and give his unusual power a chance. These low-volume decisions are not usually a winning formula.

How Adrian Yanez Wins vs. Cody Garbrandt at UFC 329

Garbandt is a very difficult opponent to hit — especially in defense mode. Xiao Long got extremely frustrated, but he’s a tank. Adrian Yanez is one of the smallest 135ers on the roster and can’t give in to that same frustration.

Patience is key here. The longer this fight goes, you have to figure Yanez may be the one winning it. He attempts 14.54 significant strikes per minute to Garbrandt’s 6.98. Xiao got in a position where he stopped putting volume out there because he was missing, but optically, he might have won if he had just kept finding a way to advance.

After losing longtime coach Saul Soliz to a tragic death, Yanez’s partnership with Saif Sayud might have a negative impact on this fight if he lets it. Sayud is a guy who barks constant instructions, and if Yanez is thinking too much, Garbrandt’s speed can be lethal.

As a footnote, the underdog from Team Alpha Male attempts 3.86 takedowns per 15 minutes. Conversely, Yanez has never landed one. It should not be a huge factor in the matchup, but he doesn’t want to sloppily give a round away with a sneaky takedown by letting his guard down in this spot.

Make your Garbrandt vs. Yanez prediction on PrizePicks!

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Garbrandt vs. Yanez Prediction for UFC 329 Preliminary Bout

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Garbrandt vs. Yanez Model Results

I’ve beaten this dead horse several times, but two guys with the experience levels of Yanez and Garbrandt, as they’re in a similar age bracket, usually aren’t going to justify one of them being over 70% likely to win, as projections imply.

Garbrandt’s negative moments have clearly influenced the forecast for this fight, but he also has positives that offer a path to victory. A decision wouldn’t be crazy if a renewed Garbrandt appears, looking to punish a guy who has absorbed a whopping 5.24 significant strikes per minute historically.

Overall, though, Yanez’s volume likely gives him a significant leg up to land a seminal blow or outpoint the former champion. Really, it’s about things he would do poorly that would open the door for the weathered, timid version of “No Love” we’ve seen recently.

At the end of the day, I’m not surprised by the model’s 13.7% chance for a Garbrandt (T)KO. You typically do not find such a distant projection for a guy with his KD% in any division to land one fortunate punch.

Garbrandt vs. Yanez Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Cody Garbrandt – 28.5 Significant Strikes

I really do believe Sayud’s presence could have a huge impact on this fight. Garbrandt is a signature overthinker, so pairing him with a Fortis MMA pupil? This could be an absolutely dreadful watch.

Despite divisional trends at bantamweight, an early finish is live here, too; 18 of these two’s combined 28 UFC-affiliated appearances ended inside the first 11 minutes. The model projects an early stoppage 61.0% of the time. Obviously, a shorter fight could compromise significant strike totals.

This projection’s placement is intentional, sitting north of his highest total of lands (28) in his last five fights. Yanez’s historical high-volume approach could absolutely bring the fight to him and make this projection look silly, but these are not reliable customers to stay standing when fists start to fly.

Make picks on UFC 329 stats like significant strikes, fight time, takedowns, and more on PrizePicks to win real money if you're right.

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Make Your Garbrandt vs. Yanez Picks on PrizePicks

UFC 329’s main event goes down this Saturday from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Garbrandt vs. Yanez, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.

Stay tapped into Playbook for more UFC predictions, picks, and analysis for every card, every weekend.