In Week 4, the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) face the Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) on the road at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4. The Chiefs enter as 4.5-point road favorites, and they would return a 1.42x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.
Last week, the Chiefs let the Miami Dolphins hang around longer than they would have liked but ultimately pulled away with a 24-10 road win. Meanwhile, the Raiders have already matched their win total from last season after rallying to defeat the New Orleans Saints 35-27 in the Superdome.
We’re getting an intriguing battle of AFC West foes in this one. Which team will stay undefeated on Sunday?
Below, we’ll break down our Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction and picks for NFL Week 4, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!
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Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 4
Between QB Patrick Mahomes already playing like he never tore his ACL and key offseason acquisition RB Kenneth Walker III adding an explosive element to their run game, the Chiefs’ offense is humming and could be a force to be reckoned with this season.
Kansas City comes into the week tied for seventh in points per game (29.3) and second in yards per game (416.3).
Walker has been a true difference-maker for his new team, leading the NFL in rushing yards (360) and ranking third in scrimmage yards (442). Per PFF, the star running back leads the league in yards after contact per attempt (4.66) and missed tackles forced (34).
The defense has also held up its end of the bargain, as it’s tied for the third-fewest points allowed per game (16.7) and has given up the fourth-fewest yards per game (278.0).
According to FTN, the Chiefs enter Sunday ranked fourth in offensive DVOA and sixth in defensive DVOA.
Perhaps only the most hardcore Raiders fans could’ve expected the team to be 3-0 through three weeks after winning just three games last season, but they’ve taken care of business so far under new head coach Klint Kubiak.
While their victories have come against three teams that have combined for just one win, it’s an encouraging start for a franchise that’s finished with a winning record just once in the past nine seasons.
Las Vegas’ offense has actually averaged the same number of points per game as Kansas City (29.3), though they’re just 19th in yards per game (311.7). QB Kirk Cousins has been a pleasant surprise for the Raiders’ attack, as he’s tied for the league lead in passing TDs (9). The offense is a respectable 13th in offensive DVOA, too.
The Raiders’ defense has also been a big part of their early success, as they’re ninth in defensive DVOA. They’ve conceded the eighth-fewest points per game (18.0) and 11th-fewest yards per game (316.7). Their strong play on defense has also been supported by a strong pass rush, as the team is tied for the fourth-most sacks (10) entering Week 4.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 4
The Chiefs enter Sunday’s game as 4.5-point road favorites against the Raiders, returning a 1.42x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.
Make your Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction on Spread – 10/4/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction on the spread for Sunday, October 4.
- Per RBSDM, Mahomes ranks eighth among 34 qualified QBs in adjusted EPA/play (0.252), but Cousins isn’t far behind him in 11th (0.210).
- On offense, Kansas City ranks fifth in EPA/play (0.166), whereas Las Vegas is 15th (0.021). However, with stud TE Brock Bowers back from injury in Week 3, the Raiders produced 0.179 EPA/play, the eighth-best mark that week.
- The Raiders’ defense ranks second in EPA/play allowed (-0.198) and eighth in success rate (41.8%). That includes ranking first in dropback EPA/play allowed (-0.127) and fourth in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.313).
- Las Vegas is third in pressure rate (42.5%), per Sharp Football Analysis, and PFF gives the pass rush the league’s third-best grade.
- The Chiefs’ offensive line has allowed the sixth-highest pressure rate (30.3%). Starting LT Josh Simmons remains out with a back injury.
Make your Chiefs vs. Raiders picks on PrizePicks for Sunday’s NFL game.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/4/26
Here are the top Chiefs vs. Raiders picks to target on Sunday, October 4. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Rashee Rice and Mike Washington Jr.
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice vs. Raiders: 57.5 Receiving Yards
- Rice is averaging 63.3 receiving yards per game. After a quiet Week 1, he’s gone over 80 yards in back-to-back weeks.
- Last week, Rice saw a season-high 9 targets against the Dolphins. Per PFF, Miami uses man coverage 19% of the time, which ranks 29th in the NFL. That’s far lower than what the Chiefs faced in the first two weeks, as the Denver Broncos (39%) and Indianapolis Colts (46%) rank eighth and fifth in man coverage usage, respectively.
- Per SumerSports, Rice is averaging 0.81 yards per route run versus man, whereas he’s up at 2.12 versus zone. In 2025, there was an even bigger gap (0.85 vs. 3.01).
- The Raiders use man coverage 26% of the time (19th).
Add Rashee Rice + Chiefs win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Raiders RB Mike Washington Jr. vs. Chiefs: 16.5 Rush Yards
- Despite averaging only 5.0 rushes a game backing up RB Ashton Jeanty, Washington has rushed for 40+ yards twice through three weeks. In Week 3, he rushed for 54 yards and a touchdown on just 5 carries.
- Jeanty is averaging 3.3 rushing yards per attempt, whereas Washington is averaging 6.8.
- Among running backs with at least 15 carries, Washington has the league’s sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt (4.07). Jeanty ranks 30th in the metric (2.67).
- Jeanty has four runs of 10+ yards on 63 attempts this year. Washington has two such runs despite getting far fewer chances.
- Head coach Klint Kubiak said Washington “definitely deserves more opportunities” when asked about the running back’s Week 3 performance.
- The Chiefs’ defense ranks 17th in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.096).
Add Mike Washington Jr. + Raiders to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 entering this matchup. Which AFC West squad will emerge 4-0 on Sunday?
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