Week 5 in the NFL wraps up with an AFC showdown between the Chiefs vs. Jaguars on Monday Night Football tonight. a matchup one well-proven QB and franchise vs. one that looks like it may be on the ups under new head coach Liam Coen.
We get a game featuring two of the league’s most popular QBs in Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence in Chiefs-Jaguars on Monday Night Football, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.
Below, we’ll dive into a Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction and same-game Monday Night Football picks to consider for PrizePicks tonight.
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Chiefs vs. Jaguars Prediction, Picks for MNF
Monday night marks the fifth time the Chiefs and Jaguars teams have met each other in the regular season since 2018, with the Chiefs collecting Ws in all five games.
Kansas City’s last victory against the Jaguars on Sept. 17, 2023 included a 17-9 defensive slugfest in Week 2.
In those games, Jacksonville has struggled to slow Mahomes, who threw for 305 passing and two touchdowns to Travis Kelce and Skyy Moore in their last matchup, and is 4-0 lifetime versus Jacksonville.
However, the Jaguars on paper have one of the top defenses so far this season, ranking 1st in expected points added (EPA) per play and success rate (37.9%), per Sumer Sports. However, their wins have come over the Panthers, Bengals (Joe Burrow left with injury), Texans, and — most impressively — vs. the 49ers last week.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
- The Chiefs have been dominant under Patrick Mahomes, posting a 91-25 record over the last nine seasons.
- Kansas City sits at 2-2 entering Week 5, coming off consecutive wins and a 37-20 blowout over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4.
- That said, the offense hasn’t been as efficient as it has in previous seasons, 28th in completion percentage (61.27%) and 14th in success rate (44.44%).
- With Xavier Worthy back from injury, the Chiefs are healthier and more dynamic than early in the season.
- The Chiefs are coming off a 37-point outing vs. the Ravens last week.
- In the last three weeks, vs. the Eagles, Giants, and Ravens, the Chiefs have given up an average of 16.3 points per game.
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
- Jacksonville enters MNF at 3-1 after wins over the Panthers, Texans, and 49ers, including a strong road showing last week — their franchise's fifth win in the Pacific time zone.
- Trevor Lawrence has led the offense through those wins, but his 75.1 passer rating sits in the bottom-five of the NFL.
- Trevor Lawrence is the only QB in the NFL with 100 dropbacks to not have at least 2 big-time throws, per PFF. He has 0., despite matchups vs. the Bengals and Panthers defenses that are bottom five in dropback EPA/play.
- Jaguars RB Travis Etienne is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, ranking third in the NFL.
- Rookie head coach Liam Coen will test hisplaybook on a national stage, giving Jacksonville a chance to stake a claim in the AFC playoff picture.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars, Monday Night Football Picks
Below are three top Chiefs vs. Jaguars same-game picks for Monday Night Football on PrizePicks. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Travis Etienne are some same-game PrizePicks player projections to consider.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Projection: 4 Receptions
- Kelce has caught at least four passes in each of the last three games but hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1.
- Through four weeks, he’s drawn 22 targets, including consistent early looks in the red zone.
- Kelce has been a focal point in primetime matchups historically, averaging 7.0 receptions per MNF game, and registering at least four receptions in all but one career Monday Night game.
- With Kansas City ranking 21st in total rush yards per game (110.5), Kelce has been Mahomes’ security blanket. with a 6.2 yards average depth of target, per PFF.
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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Projection: 251.5 Pass Yards
- Mahomes threw for 270 yards and 4 TDs against the Ravens in Week 4, marking the fastest player in NFL history to reach 250 career regular-season passing TDs (116 games).
- The Jaguars gave up 309 yards to Brock Purdy last week, and 241 yards to Jake Browning, who played about a third of the game, in Week 2.
- The Chiefs have two WRs who ran 4.2-second 40-yard dash times at the NFL combine, giving them explosive play upside.
- Mahomes is 9-3in his career on Monday Night Football, averaging 284.3 pass yards per game in those games.
- He threw for 331 yards and 291 yards on Monday Night Football last year.
- Mahomes had a season-high 270 pass yards last week in the first game with WR Xavier Worthy healthy.
Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. Projection: 80.5 Rush+Rec Yards
- Etienne leads the Jacksonville backfield with 6 catches on 10 targets this year.
- Etienne is averaging 106.5 rush+rec yards per game this season.
- The Jaguars RB1 is seeing a career resurgence, averaging 6.1 yards per rush after averaging under 4.0 in 2023 and 2025.
- The Chiefs have given up at least 57 yards receiving to opposing RBs in the last two games vs. Ravens and Giants.
- The Chiefs are the third worst rush defense in the NFL according to Sumer Sports, giving up 0.09 expected points added per play.
- Etienne's 170 total yards before contact are 62 more than any other RB this year, behind a Jaguars OL that ranks fifth overall in run-blocking grade, per PFF.
Make Chiefs vs. Jaguars Picks on PrizePicks
Monday Night Football closes an exciting Week 5 with a marquee AFC matchup between the Chiefs and Jaguars, with Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence dueling for a key early season W.
This game will either put the Chiefs back at the top of the AFC or give the Jaguars their first signature win in the Liam Coen era after an impressive showing in San Francisco last week.
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