The Chargers and Cowboys collide in one of Week 16's marquee matchups, kicking off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Los Angeles has won three straight, riding high after a 16-13 win over their divisional rival, the Kansas City Chiefs, which has the Chargers surging in the AFC wild card race. QB Justin Herbert has played efficient football, totaling 349 yards and 2 TDs over his last two games.
Herbert and the Chargers now head east to face a Cowboys team coming off a disappointing home loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15, a defeat that severely hurt their playoff hopes.
Below, we'll dive into a Chargers vs. Cowboys prediction and picks in Week 16. Use PrizePicks NFL to make picks on player projections in Week 16 and beyond.
Chargers vs. Cowboys Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Sunday marks the 14th all-time meeting between the Chargers and Cowboys, with Dallas holding a slight edge in the series.
The Chargers enter Sunday not being favored, despite winning six of their last seven games to improve to 10-4. For the Cowboys, injuries continue to mount on both sides of the ball. Star WR CeeDee Lamb is questionable due to illness, while CB Daron Bland (foot) and LT Tyler Guyton (ankle) remain sidelined.
S Donovan Wilson (knee) is trending toward playing, but Dallas’ secondary gets a boost with CB Trevon Diggs being activated off injured reserve.
Chargers vs. Cowboys Over/Under, Spread
The Chargers enter Sunday’s game as 2.5-point road underdogs, returning a 2x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Cowboys are home favorites with a 1.72x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys -2.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Game Winner Payout: Chargers 2x | Cowboys 1.72x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Chargers vs. Cowboys Prediction on Spread
- The Chargers hold a 7-6-1 against-the-spread record (53.9%). Most impressive is their perfect 3-0 ATS mark as underdogs, with a +7.3 ATS differential, the third-best underdog performance in the NFL.
- Dallas sits at a 7-7 ATS record, posting a 5-2 mark as underdogs (71.4%), though their -0.9 point differential reveals troubling signs for a team that once dominated early in the season.
- Offensively, the Cowboys rank eighth in EPA per play (0.09, via SumerSports) but struggle to maintain drives efficiently. Their third-down offense (41.9% conversion rate) also ranks respectable at eighth.
- The Chargers' offense is 25th in EPA per play and 19th in points per game with just 22.5 compared to the Cowboys' 29.1. Dallas has allowed 30.0 PPG defensively, the second-most of any team.
- With the Cowboys' defensive deficiencies offsetting their offensive firepower, Los Angeles could exploit those weaknesses.
Chargers vs. Cowboys NFL Week 16 Picks
Here are the top Chargers vs. Cowboys Week 16 picks on PrizePicks' real-money NFL game, including QBs Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert vs. Cowboys Projection: 245.5 Pass Yards
- Herbert is averaging 227.9 passing yards and has exceeded 245.5 yards in five of his 14 games.
- Dallas ranks dead last in pass defense, allowing 254.8 YPG, and has surrendered 250+ passing yards in 10 of 14 contests.
- Herbert historically averages 282.5 passing yards across two career meetings with Dallas.
- The Cowboys' defense has struggled on third downs, allowing a 46.5% conversion rate — the third-worst mark in the league.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott vs. Chargers Projection: 249.5 Pass Yards
- Prescott nets 280.8 passing YPG (the most in the league) and has exceeded 249.5 yards in 11 weeks.
- Over his last five games, Dallas' QB has averaged 313.6 passing yards, surpassing 249.5 yards in all of them.
- The Cowboys' signal-caller produces 7.5 yards per attempt, 10th among QBs, and leads the league with 522 pass attempts.
- Los Angeles runs zone coverage at the second-highest rate (81.3%). Prescott has an efficient 73.1 completion percentage and 94.9 passer rating against zone.
Cowboys RB Javonte Williams vs. Chargers Projection: 70.5 Rush Yards
- Cowboys RB Javonte Williams is averaging 79.5 rushing YPG and has exceeded 70.5 yards in nine of 14 outings.
- The Cowboys' volume commitment to Williams has been unmatched league-wide, as he's handled 230 carries (16.4 per game) with a solid 4.6 YPC.
- The Chargers' run defense allows 104.7 rushing YPG and 4.5 YPC (20th).
- Dallas ranks 12th in run-block win rate (72%), via ESPN, providing Williams with adequate blocking to operate effectively.
Make Chargers vs. Cowboys Picks on PrizePicks
This Chargers vs. Cowboys Week 16 matchup presents plenty of opportunities to put your NFL knowledge to the test.
Justin Herbert aims to keep the offense flowing against a struggling Cowboys defense. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott and Javonte Williams try to bounce back in a home tilt.
With PrizePicks, you can make Chargers vs. Cowboys predictions and earn real money by calling your shots. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash out if you're right.
Keep it locked in here with the Playbook for NFL picks, predictions, and news every day.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
