Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks for Thursday Night Football

Week 5’s edition of Thursday Night Football will feature the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) against the Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. The Cowboys enter as 7.5-point home favorites, with a 1.2x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

Following a 17-14 home loss to the Green Bay Packers, the Buccaneers’ season is quickly getting away from them. They’ll be without starting QB Baker Mayfield again tonight, meaning QB Jalon Daniels will get another start.

The Cowboys keep finding themselves in shootouts, most recently outlasting the Houston Texans on the road, 34-30. This could be a prime opportunity for them to get over .500 against a struggling Tampa team without its starting signal-caller. 

Below, we’ll break down our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction and picks for Week 5’s Thursday Night Football game tonight, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Thursday Night Football Week 5

The Cowboys enter Thursday’s game as 7.5-point home favorites against the Buccaneers, returning a 1.2x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $120 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!

The Buccaneers will once again rely on Jalon Daniels, a rookie UDFA, as their starting quarterback this week. 

Daniels made his first career start last week against Green Bay, completing 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs while also adding 55 rushing yards on 8 carries. Starting RB Bucky Irving rushed 16 times for 61 yards on the ground.

On the Week 4 slate, the offense ultimately finished 20th in EPA/play (-0.035) and 15th in success rate (45.2%), per RBSDM. Even with Baker Mayfield starting the first three weeks, Tampa Bay ranks 24th in offensive DVOA through four games, per FTN.

Despite being winless, the Buccaneers’ defense has allowed them to stay within striking distance in all four losses. 

Although Tampa’s D is in the middle of the pack in points allowed per game (24.0), its held opposing offenses to the fourth-fewest yards per game (282.8). The unit enters this matchup ranked ninth in defensive DVOA.

Dallas once again has a stellar offense, scoring the third-most points per game (30.5). That’s been backed by ranking third in EPA/play (0.196) and fourth in success rate (48.9%). Over the past three games, the offense has scored 37, 31, and 34 points.

On the other hand, the defense has once again been the issue. Despite overhauling the D in the offseason, the team has given up the fifth-most points per game (28.0) and third-most yards per game (389.5). Dallas ranks 31st in EPA/play allowed (0.191) and dead last in defensive DVOA.

That perhaps leaves the door open for Tampa Bay to hang in this game despite having an inexperienced starting quarterback tonight.  

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Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction on Spread for Thursday Night Football – 10/8/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction on the spread for Thursday, October 8.

• Mayfield really struggled over the first three weeks, so his absence might not even be a major downgrade for Tampa’s offense. In their first three games, the Bucs ranked 32nd in EPA/play (-0.200) and 29th in success rate (36.8%). 
• Among 32 qualified quarterbacks, Mayfield ranks last in adjusted EPA/play (-0.189) this season. Daniels averaged -0.044 adjusted EPA/play in Week 4. 
• Daniels could have an easier time airing it out against Dallas’ lackluster pass rush. The Cowboys are tied for the second-fewest sacks this season (4), and they rank 30th in pass rush win rate (42%), according to ESPN.
• The Bucs’ defense has performed well, ranking fifth in EPA/play allowed (-0.066) and sixth in success rate (40.4%). 
• Tampa’s defense has been particularly stout against the run, allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt (3.2). That’s further back by ranking third in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.253) and fourth in rush success rate (33.3%).  
• Given those numbers, it’s possible the Bucs will be able to neutralize the Dallas run game and force it to be one-dimensional on offense. That could be important, as Cowboys RB Javonte Williams has logged 19 carries in each of the past two games and is coming off a 3-TD performance against the Texans.

Make your Buccaneers vs. Cowboys picks now for Thursday’s NFL game.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Picks, Player Stats for TNF on PrizePicks: 10/8/26

Here are the top Buccaneers vs. Cowboys picks to target on Thursday, October 8. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Chris Godwin and Javonte Williams.

Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin vs. Cowboys: 29.5 Receiving Yards

• With Daniels under center in Week 4, Godwin led the team with 7 targets and a 27% target share.
• Per PlayerProfiler, he also saw season highs in snap share (90.2%) and route participation rate (86.1%).
• Despite seeing just 11 total targets over the first three weeks with Mayfield starting, Godwin has tallied 40, 46, 25, and 31 receiving yards over his four games.
• The Cowboys’ D ranks last in both dropback EPA/play allowed (0.412) and dropback success rate (59.2%) by a wide margin. 
• Further, Dallas has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to wideouts this season.
• This matchup is up to a fairly high 48.5-point total, suggesting this could be a high-scoring matchup. Dallas' games have totaled 48, 57, 65, and 64 points.

Add Chris Godwin + Buccaneers to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Cowboys RB Javonte Williams vs. Buccaneers: 70.5 Rush Yards

• As noted above, the Buccaneers are extremely difficult to run against. Opposing running backs have averaged only 62.5 rushing yards per game, per Pro Football Reference.  
• Williams is averaging 3.7 rush yards per attempt, which is down from 4.8 per game last season.
• Over the first four games, he’s rushed for 41, 30, 98, and 62 yards.
• Dallas ranks 31st in run block win rate (68%) so far this year. 
• Williams has seen the 11th-most carries (62) but has logged just 6 missed tackles forced, per PFF. That ranks 29th out of 39 running backs with at least 30 rushes this season.
• In that same sample, he ranks 25th in yards after contact per attempt (2.73).

Add Javonte Williams + Cowboys to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Make Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Picks on PrizePicks

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still looking for their first win of the season and now hit the road as a sizable road underdog against the Dallas Cowboys. Can they find a way to steal a win at Jerry World?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Buccaneers vs. Cowboys picks on PrizePicks now for Week 5 and earn real money if you're right.

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