Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks – Sunday, October 11

The NFL’s Week 5 slate continues Sunday afternoon with three late afternoon games, including the Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. The Broncos enter as 3.5-point road favorites on the spread, returning a 1.49x payout if they win on PrizePicks.

The Broncos look to bounce back from their loss in San Francisco last week, while the Chargers are seeking their first win of the season after a surprising 0-4 start. The kickoff from the City of Angels is at 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS.

Below, we’ll break down our Broncos vs. Chargers prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game, including the spread for PrizePicks.

Make your Broncos vs. Chargers prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 11

The Broncos enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point favorites against the Chargers, returning a 1.49x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright — or a $149 return on a $100 entry if you're right.

Here are the full payouts for the Broncos vs. Chargers game. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Broncos vs. Chargers prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks.

The Broncos have been plagued by slow starts, scoring an NFL-low 13 first-half points through four games. This has resulted in being behind in all four games at halftime, two of which Denver was able to overcome in rallies vs. Jacksonville and the Rams. 

The Broncos offense has woken up in the second half of most games but remains 27th in yards, 29th in rushing, 20th in passing, and 26th in scoring. Denver's underlying efficiency is better than its scoring production.

The Broncos rank 18th in offensive EPA/play but just 27th in points per drive. Their third-down conversion rate (12th) and red-zone touchdown percentage (11th) suggest the offense isn't uniformly ineffective. 

Head Coach Sean Payton is taking over play-calling duties this week from offensive coordinator Davis Webb after the Broncos' disappointing offensive start.

On the Chargers side, it's been a complete disaster on offense. The Mike McDaniel experiment has not worked for the 0-4 team, producing only 16.8 points per game (29th), most of which came in the second half vs. Seattle last Sunday, as they had 92 yards at halftime.

Last week vs. the Seahawks, according to ESPN Analytics, the Chargers' pass block win rate was 13%, their lowest in ESPN's 10-year dataset for blocking win rates. Herbert was sacked 4 times and pressured 22 times (55% of his dropbacks), according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

The main issue has been the offense, where Los Angeles ranks among the NFL's worst teams in nearly every major efficiency category through four games.

• 32nd in offensive EPA/play (approximately -0.16)
• 25th in offensive success rate (approximately 40%)
• 29th in passing EPA/dropback
• 26th in rushing EPA/carry
• 29th in scoring offense (16.8 PPG)
• 24th in third-down conversion rate
• 22nd in yards per play (5.01)
• 26th in turnover margin per game (-0.8)

The Chargers have lost the four games by a combined 39 points, the second-worst net margin in the NFL, only ahead of the Dolphins (-50). 

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Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction on Over/Under – 10/11/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Broncos vs. Chargers prediction on the over/under for Sunday, October 11.

• Both the Broncos and Chargers have played three of their four games to the under this season. 
• The Chargers have scored 16 or fewer points in three of their four games and have yet to score more than 23 points this season. Each of the first three games totaled exactly 40, while three of the four Broncos games were 41 or fewer. 
• Los Angeles is the second-worst first-half scoring team in the NFL at 7.5 per game (30 total), only ahead of the Broncos and their 13 total first- half points. 
• Combined, these teams average just 35.3 points per game, a touchdown below the 41.5-point total.
• Denver ranks 25th in explosive-play rate at 6.6%, per Sharp Football. The Broncos also average just 4.9 yards per offensive play, while the Chargers total 5.0.
• The most recent meeting between these teams also finished 19-3 last season. 

Make your Broncos vs. Chargers picks on PrizePicks now for Sunday’s NFL game.

Broncos vs. Chargers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/11/26

Here are the top Broncos vs. Chargers picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, October 11. Today’s PrizePicks picks include QB Justin Herbert and QB Bo Nix.

Broncos QB Bo Nix vs. Chargers: 223.5 Pass Yards

• Broncos QB Bo Nix has failed to hit his passing projection in three of the four games this season, breaking 215 yards just once. 
• Going back to his last two regular season games last year, Nix is averaging 190.3 passing yards per game in his last six games. 
• The former first-round pick is 21st with an 80.4 passer rating and 22nd with a 46.7 QBR.
• In four career games vs. the Chargers, Nix is averaging 193.3 passing yards per game. 

Add Bo Nix to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert vs. Broncos: 199.5 Pass Yards

• Chargers QB Justin Herbert has failed to reach his passing projection in all four games this season, throwing for 192, 209, 226, and 189 yards. 
• Herbert's listed projection is 199.5 yards, the second straight week at that number. Last week it was his lowest passing-yard projection since at least the start of the 2023 season.  
• The former first-round pick is 29th with -0.098 EPA/play and 29th in QBR (28.5), only ahead of Kyler Murray.
• Dating back to last season, Herbert has failed to break 240 yards passing in 10 of his last 11 games. 

Add Justin Herbert to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Make Broncos vs. Chargers Picks on PrizePicks

Can the Chargers turn their season around instead of falling into an 0-5 hole? Or will the Broncos bounce back from the loss in San Francisco last week and go over .500?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Broncos vs. Chargers picks on PrizePicks now for Week 5 and earn real money if you're right.

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