The World Cup group stage was full of drama for Brazil, from a 1-1 draw vs. Morocco on Matchday 1 to Neymar returning from injury and Raphinha suffering an injury on Matchday 2. After winning Group C, Brazil was awarded a difficult Round of 32 matchup vs. Japan on Monday, June 29, at 1 p.m. ET on FOX.
If Brazil is to add to their record-setting five World Cup titles, they may have a tough road ahead in the knockout stage. Including Monday’s meeting with Japan, what is Canarinho’s path to another World Cup win?
Below, we’ll dissect who Brazil could play in each round of the 2026 World Cup, all the way to the World Cup Final, including projections for Brazil to advance to each round on PrizePicks.
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Note: Within this article, we’ll use the WorldCup2026Predictions.app to show the most likely opponents for France in each round.
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Who Will Brazil Play in the Round of 32?
Date, Kickoff Time: Monday, June 29, at 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium (Houston Stadium) in Houston, Texas
Opponent: Japan
Winner Payout: Brazil 1.66x | Tie 3.44x | Japan 4.54x
Spread: Brazil -1.5 (2.94x)
Total: 2.5 (Over - 2.04x | Under - 1.72x)
If Japan’s 1-2-0 record in the group stage is any indication, Brazil has a tough matchup right off the bat. Japan tied 2-2 with the Netherlands on Matchday 1 in one of the most entertaining group stage matches.
That performance helped elevate Japan to 13th in our World Cup Power Rankings following Matchday 1. While Brazil’s 1-1 opening match vs. Morocco was underwhelming, Canarinho quickly rebounded with back-to-back 3-0 wins vs. Haiti and Scotland.
Monday could bring a captivating battle of tactics, as Japan features one of the most fluid and dynamic systems at World Cup 2026. Both teams have shifted to a 4-4-2 formation at times, sitting back in defense and waiting to pounce on the counter-attack with two strikers waiting for their moment to shoot.
Brazil is favored with a 1.66x payout to win vs. Japan, via PrizePicks Team Picks. However, right winger Raphinha will miss Monday’s match, adding to the Round of 32 challenge.
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World Cup Round of 16
Date, Kickoff Time: Sunday, July 5, at 4:00 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (New York New Jersey Stadium) in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Brazil to Qualify for World Cup Round of 16: Yes 1.29x | No 3.33x
Potential Opponents: Norway (64%), Ivory Coast (36%)
Assuming Brazil can get past Japan on Monday afternoon, they will get the winner of Ivory Coast vs. Norway, who face off on Tuesday, June 30. World Cup Predictions is siding with Norway, carrying a 64% probability to advance to the Round of 16.
PrizePicks Team Picks is on the same page, as Norway has a 1.92x payout to win compared to Ivory Coast’s 3.44x payout on Tuesday. The Vikings are led by ST Erling Haaland, who is tied for the second-most goals (4) in the World Cup.
Brazil has firepower, too, as LW Vinícius Júnior erupted for 4 goals, 1.21 expected goals (xG) per 90 (100th percentile), and 2.76 shots on target per 90 (100th percentile) during the group stage, via FotMob.
Norway’s 6.4 xGs in World Cup 2026 is tied for the sixth-highest mark, and they accomplished that with 10 of 11 starters resting in Matchday 3’s 4-1 loss vs. France.
Brazil’s attack has been a step ahead, totaling 7.3 xG (second). If we see Brazil vs. Norway come to fruition, a high-scoring battle could be ahead.
World Cup Quarterfinals
Date, Kickoff Time: Saturday, July 11, at 4:00 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Stadium) in Miami Gardens, Florida
Brazil to Qualify for World Cup Quarterfinals: Yes 1.78x | No 1.88x
Potential Opponents: England (55%), Mexico (32%), Ecuador (12%)
This bracket is a brutal pull for Brazil. If they manage to survive Japan, followed by potentially Norway, one of the world’s best squads could be next.
England holds a 55% probability to appear in the quarterfinals, per World Cup Predictions. Further, PrizePicks Team Picks gives the Three Lions a 1.53x payout to qualify for the World Cup quarterfinals.
This team is absolutely loaded, including the likes of ST Harry Kane, RW Bukayo Saka, MF Jude Bellingham, and MF Declan Rice.
The quarterfinals have been labeled as Raphinha’s latest potential return from injury, while England RB Reece James is in danger of missing multiple games from a hamstring injury. Plus, Declan Rice has dealt with a calf issue. Perhaps Brazil could see a beat-up England squad by the quarterfinals.
Aided by one of the best strikers in the world in Harry Kane, England’s 6.7 shots on target per match (tied for fourth) and 6.1 xG (tied for eighth) may force Brazil into another high-scoring fixture.
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World Cup Semifinals
Date, Kickoff Time: Wednesday, July 15, at 3:00 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta Stadium) in Atlanta, Georgia
Brazil to Qualify for World Cup Semifinals: Yes 3.03x | No 1.33x
Potential Opponents: Argentina (62%), Colombia (24%), Switzerland (7%)
It’s nothing but heavyweight once we get to semifinals. A bout with the defending World Cup champions, Argentina, could be in line for Brazil. Without much surprise, Argentina has the second-shortest payout to win the World Cup (4x).
The CONMEBOL rivals have plenty of history, with Brazil holding a 14-5-9 record in official head-to-head matches. The two have met in four World Cup fixtures, and Brazil also has the upper hand with a 2-1-1 record.
However, Argentina has the ultimate equalizer in the GOAT Lionel Messi, who currently tops World Cup rankings with 6 goals headed into the knockout stage. Argentina’s 5.7 xG over three matches (11th) won’t knock your socks off, but they’ve allowed only 1 goal and conceded 1.6 xG (fifth-fewest).
Colombia has the second-highest probability to fill this semifinal spot (24%), and they’ve also allowed just 1 goal through three matches. Brazil may be tasked with facing a stout defense if they appear in the semifinals.
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World Cup Final
Date, Kickoff Time: Sunday, July 19, at 3:00 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (New York New Jersey Stadium) in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Brazil to Qualify for World Cup Final: Yes 5.26x | No 1.13x
Brazil to Win World Cup: Yes 11.11x | No 1.03x
Potential Opponents: Spain (40%), France (29%), Netherlands (6%)
Finally, the match with everything on the line — the World Cup Final. Spain (40%) and France (29%) stand out as the most probable opponents in the final.
Of course, France won the 2018 World Cup and fell short in the final vs. Argentina in 2022. Les Bleus is arguably playing the best football heading into the World Cup 2026, carrying a +2.7 goal differential per match.
France’s ST Kylian Mbappé, RW Ousmane Dembélé, and CAM Michael Olise form an absurd front line that feels nearly impossible to slow.
Spain hasn’t been too shabby either, led by perhaps the best player in the world, Lamine Yamal. The Spanish love to control possession, as WhoScored credits La Roja with a tournament-high 69.4% possession rate entering the knockout stage.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, France (3.7x) and Spain (7.69x) are among the three shortest payouts to win the tournament. That would follow Brazil potentially facing England (7.69x) and Argentina (4x), who are also among the three shortest payouts to win World Cup 2026.
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Brazil truly has one of the toughest paths to advance to the World Cup Final. If they pull it off, it will certainly be well-earned, as the quarterfinals, semifinals, and final could feature matchups against three of the top four favored teams to win the 2026 World Cup.
You can make your World Cup predictions on how far Brazil or other teams will advance in the knockout stage on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!
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