#23 Boise State vs. Fresno State Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, October 10

In college football’s late-night affair, the Pac-12 will be on display in a battle between two 4-1 programs. The #23 Boise State Broncos, one of the nation's top teams, will hit the road to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs at 10:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 10, on The CW.

The Broncos are 7.5-point favorites and return a 1.31x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks.

Boise State is fresh off a 37-18 win over Utah State last week, its fourth straight victory. Meanwhile, Fresno State took care of business against Washington State in a 26-6 win.

Below, we’ll break down our Boise State vs. Fresno State prediction and picks for Saturday night's game, including the spread, over/under, and player projections for PrizePicks.

Make your Boise State vs. Fresno State picks on PrizePicks now!

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#23 Boise State vs. Fresno State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 10

Boise State enters Saturday’s game as a 7.5-point road favorite against Fresno State, returning a 1.31x payout if it wins outright, via PrizePicks — or $131 on a $100 entry if you're right.

Here are the full payouts for the Boise State vs. Fresno State game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Boise State vs. Fresno State prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks.

Few programs around the country have been more consistent than Boise State over the last two decades. The Broncos have gone to four consecutive bowl games and qualified for the College Football Playoff during the 2024 season. 

The Broncos have gotten to another sensational start, with the only blemish being a 34-27 loss at the hands of #13 Oregon in the season opener. Boise State has outscored its opponents 69-25 in its last two games, defeating Western Michigan and Utah State.

Boise State has averaged 34.4 points per game this season (fourth in the Pac-12) and has racked up a 0.21 EPA/pass (35th nationally) with QB Maddux Madsen under center.

The Broncos have also posted 0.15 EPA per play, ranking 35th nationally. The Boise State QB has recorded a 0.21 EPA per dropback, ranking 38th among collegiate QBs.

Defensively, the Broncos have been the conference’s top run defense, allowing just 114.4 rushing yards per game. However, Boise State’s secondary hasn’t enjoyed the same level of success, yielding the fifth-most passing yards per game (258.2) in the Pac-12.

Meanwhile, Fresno State has reached at least nine wins in four of its last five campaigns. The Bulldogs produced a 9-4 record in 2025 and defeated Miami (Ohio) 18-3 in the Arizona Bowl.

After being blanked 39-0 by #19 USC in the season opener, Fresno State has enjoyed a stellar season so far. The Bulldogs have averaged 27.8 points per game this season (fifth in the Pac-12) and have won their four games by double-digit margins. 

One of the biggest storylines in Saturday’s contest is starting RB Rayshon Luke's health. The Fresno State RB is dealing with an undisclosed injury and is questionable for Saturday night’s game. If Luke can’t go, junior RB Bryson Donelson (4.3 yards per carry) and QB Jayden Mandal will likely receive most of the designed running plays. 

Fresno State has thrived against the spread this season, going 4-1 against the spread up to this point. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the spread in each of the last three meetings against the Broncos.

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Boise State vs. Fresno State Prediction on Over/Under – 10/10/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Boise State vs. Fresno State prediction on the over/under for Saturday, October 10, in this battle of Pac-12 foes. 

• Fresno State has an impressive passing attack, averaging 213.4 passing yards per game (fourth in the Pac-12) behind QB Jayden Mandal.
• Mandal completes 66.4% of his passes for 1,034 yards and 6 TDs, while only being intercepted once this season. 
• The Bulldogs post a 0.22 EPA/pass, ranking 33rd nationally. Meanwhile, the Broncos have been fairly vulnerable against the pass, yielding a -0.04 EPA/pass and 258.2 passing yards per game (fifth in the Pac-12).
• Fresno State also has a strong defensive unit in 2026, posting a -0.12 EPA/pass against its opponents. That could loom large against QB Maddux Madsen, who averages just 211.6 passing yards per contest.
• The Bulldogs’ defense thrives on late downs, holding their opponents to just a 35.1% success rate on third and fourth down this season.

Lock in your Boise State vs. Fresno State prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff.

Boise State vs. Fresno State Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/10/26

Here are the top Boise State vs. Fresno State picks to target on Saturday, October 10. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include Maddux Madsen and Josiah Freeman.

Boise State QB Maddux Madsen vs. Fresno State: 218.5 Pass Yards

• Madsen has completed 65.9% of his passes for 1,058 yards and 11 TDs and hasn’t thrown an interception this season.
• Dating back to the 2025 season, the Boise State QB has thrown for fewer than 219 yards in six of his last nine games.
• Madsen has passed for 219+ yards in just two of his five games this season.
• Fresno State has allowed 215.4 passing yards per game (third in the Pac-12), while surrendering the second-fewest total passing yards (1,077) this season. 

Add Maddux Madsen + Boise State to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Fresno State WR Josiah Freeman vs. Boise State: 53.5 Receiving Yards

• Freeman hauled in 25 passes for 322 yards and 2 TDs in four games this season.
• The senior WR sports a 71.4% catch rate, pulling in 25 of his 35 targets in 2026.
• Freeman has recorded 61+ receiving yards in all four games this season, registering at least 95 yards against Sacramento State and San Jose State to begin the season.
• Boise State has allowed 258.2 passing yards per game (fifth in the eight-team Pac-12).

Pick Josiah Freeman + Fresno State to cover the spread on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

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Make Boise State vs. Fresno State Picks on PrizePicks

Both Boise State and Fresno State have gotten off to 4-1 starts in 2026. With the Bulldogs getting home-field advantage on Saturday night, could this be a closely contested matchup in the Pac-12? 

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Boise State vs. Fresno State picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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