The Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans game is set to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 13, at NRG Stadium on CBS. The Bills enter as a 1.5-point road favorite with a 1.81x payout to win, via PrizePicks.
Buffalo and Houston each reached the divisional playoff round last season, but both squads were eliminated on the road.
The Bills failed to win the AFC East, which would have been their sixth straight title, but managed a seventh consecutive postseason appearance. Houston came up short on a third straight AFC South title, as the Texans tied a franchise record for most wins in a season (12).
Below, we'll break down our Bills vs. Texans prediction and picks for Sunday's NFL game, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Bills vs. Texans Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1
Despite a second-place division finish behind the eventual AFC champion Patriots, the Bills posted a 12-5 record and won at Jacksonville in the Wild Card round.
Buffalo was eliminated by Kansas City in four of five playoff runs before getting knocked out by Cincinnati in 2024. After the Chiefs failed to make the postseason in 2025, it seemed like this was the year for Buffalo to make a Super Bowl run.
Following its 27-24 triumph over the Jaguars, the Bills traveled to Denver and couldn’t overcome 5 turnovers in a 33-30 overtime setback.
Houston’s defense shined last season, leading the league in EPA/Pass, while ranking second in EPA/Rush and defensive success rate, per RBSDM. The Texans overcame an 0-3 start to win 12 of their final 14 games, including three victories without starting QB C.J. Stroud.
One of those wins came in Week 12 vs. the Bills, a 23-19 triumph for Houston as 4.5-point underdogs. QB Davis Mills led the Texans to 17 second-quarter points with a pair of TD passes. Buffalo’s offense managed one offensive TD from RB James Cook III in the first quarter and picked up a kickoff return for a late score in the first half.
The Bills outgained the Texans 326-261, but Buffalo QB Josh Allen was intercepted twice and failed to throw a TD pass.
Allen gained a strong weapon in WR D.J. Moore this past offseason. Moore is coming off a career-low 682 receiving yards, as he seeks his fifth career 1,000-yard campaign.
The Texans also bolstered their offense by picking up former Lions RB David Montgomery, who scored 33 TDs in three seasons with Detroit.
Ahead of Sunday's battle, Houston placed rookie DT Kayden McDonald on IR with an ankle injury, who was drafted in the second round out of Ohio State.
Bills vs. Texans Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13
The Bills enter Sunday’s game as 1.5-point favorites against the Texans. Houston returns a 1.92x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks.
Here are the full payouts for the Bills vs. Texans game on PrizePicks.
Make your Bills vs. Texans prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Bills vs. Texans Prediction on Spread for Week 1 – 9/13/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Bills vs. Texans prediction on the spread for Sunday, September 13.
- Buffalo travels to Houston for the third straight season, losing the previous two matchups by a total of 7 points.
- One of the most intriguing matchups is the Texans' running game against the Bills' rush defense. Houston’s EPA/Rush ranked 29th, while Buffalo sat 31st in defensive EPA/Rush.
- Buffalo’s EPA/Rush finished second, aided by Cook leading the NFL in rushing with 1,621 yards.
- Last season, the Texans were listed as a home underdog once in nine games, which came against Buffalo.
- Six of Buffalo’s final seven games last season (including playoffs) were decided by 5 or fewer points.
- Montgomery’s rushing yard projection sits at 55.5, as he finished below that number in 11 of the final 14 games.
- The Bills won four of six road games against playoff teams last season.
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Bills vs. Texans Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/13/26
Here are top Bills vs. Texans picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, September 13. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include QB Josh Allen and QB C.J. Stroud.
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Texans: 222.5 Pass Yards
- Allen passed this projection in eight of the final 11 games last season, including 253 yards at Houston.
- Only five quarterbacks threw for more than 223 yards against the Texans in 2025. Houston held 12 of 19 opposing QBs below their passing yards projection, according to Prop Finder.
- In 2025, the Texans allowed the third-lowest completion percentage in the NFL. Per Props Madness, Allen averaged 248.0 passing yards in eight games against teams ranking 15th or better in opponents' completion percentage.
- Allen’s worst offensive grade performance at Pro Football Focus came at Houston. However, in three of his four lowest-graded outings, he eclipsed the 250-yard passing mark.
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Texans QB C.J. Stroud vs. Bills: 219.5 Pass Yards
- Stroud averaged 20 fewer passing yards per game at home (207.6) compared to on the road (227.9).
- In the 2024 home win over the Bills, the former Ohio State standout racked up 331 passing yards and 8.7 yards per attempt.
- In 11 of the final 13 games last season, Buffalo held opposing QBs below their passing yards projection.
- Stroud ranked eighth among QBs participating in at least 300 plays in Adjusted EPA/Play. Out of the four top-10 QBs in this category that faced the Bills, three of them finished with more than 220 passing yards last season.
Add C.J. Stroud to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Make Bills vs. Texans Picks on PrizePicks
Houston has defeated Buffalo each of the last two seasons by close margins. Can the Bills jump out of the gate with a road win before debuting at their new stadium next week?
Don’t wait until lock — make your Bills vs. Texans picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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