Bills vs. Raiders Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks – Sunday, October 18

In Week 6, the Buffalo Bills (4-1) will hit the road to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (3-2) at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 18. The Bills come in as 4.5-point road favorites, and they would return a 1.4x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

Following their first loss of the season in Week 5 to the New England Patriots, the Bills bounced back with a thrilling 37-34 victory in overtime over the Los Angeles Rams. Meanwhile, the Raiders started out 3-0 but now find themselves on a two-game losing skid after defeats to the Kansas City Chiefs and Patriots.

Can Las Vegas get back on track at home against Buffalo today?

Below, we’ll break down our Bills vs. Raiders prediction and picks for NFL Week 6, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Bills vs. Raiders prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Bills vs. Raiders Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 18

The Bills enter Sunday’s game as 4.5-point road favorites against the Raiders, returning a 1.4x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $140 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Bills vs. Raiders game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Bills vs. Raiders prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!

QB Josh Allen and the Bills continue to be a force on offense, coming in tied for the league lead in points per game (32.8) while averaging the fourth-most yards per game (396.2). 

Allen did a little bit of everything in their Week 5 win over the Rams, completing 12 of 19 passes for 210 yards, a TD, and an INT while rushing 10 times for a whopping 121 yards and another TD.

RB James Cook also had a big performance, carrying the ball 25 times for 111 yards. However, he fumbled the ball twice, 1 of which was recovered by the Rams in overtime, nearly costing the Bills the game. 

Cook already has 4 fumbles this season, and while it’s unlikely Buffalo makes drastic changes to his workload any time soon, head coach Joe Brady said Cook could see fewer carries if the issue persists. 

Bills WR DJ Moore continues to deal with a shoulder injury and was unable to suit up last week. He got in a limited practice on Friday and is officially questionable for Sunday’s matchup.

Of course, the biggest problem for this team has been its defense. Buffalo is conceding the fifth-most points per game (28.2) and third-most yards per game (388.6). Only the floundering Los Angeles Chargers have failed to score at least 29 points against this defense through five weeks.

The Raiders will look to take advantage as they try to snap their two-game losing streak. Las Vegas is ninth in points per game (26.4), and while the team is eighth in passing yards per game (253.6), they’re 28th in rushing yards per game (82.0).

Despite a somewhat muted performance in Week 5’s loss to New England, QB Kirk Cousins has largely exceeded expectations thus far. He’s tied for second in passing TDs (12) while ranking 12th in adjusted yards per attempt (7.7). Having otherworldly TE Brock Bowers back healthy the past few games certainly doesn’t hurt, either.

On the other hand, RB Ashton Jeanty has really struggled. Among 43 running backs with at least 30 carries, Jeanty ranks 37th in rushing yards per attempt (3.3) and is 24th in yards after contact per attempt (2.73), per PFF. He’s been playing through ankle and foot injuries throughout the season and was listed as questionable in Week 5 before ultimately playing.

Despite a recent report suggesting the Raiders might rest Jeanty, he practiced in full all week and has no injury designation. He claims to be “feeling great,” providing perhaps some optimism that his efficiency could improve this week in a plus matchup.

Much like its opponent, Vegas has also been mediocre on defense, ranking 22nd in points allowed per game (25.8) and 27th in yards allowed per game (377.0). Per FTN, the Raiders rank 26th in defensive DVOA, while the Bills are 27th. 

It’s possible we see a shootout between these two teams on Sunday afternoon.

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Bills vs. Raiders Prediction on Spread – 10/18/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Bills vs. Raiders prediction on the spread for Sunday, October 18.

• Advanced metrics don’t look kindly upon Buffalo’s beleaguered defense. This unit ranks 30th in both EPA/play allowed (0.152) and success rate (49.3%), per RBSDM. 
• In contrast, the Raiders’ D is closer to the middle of the pack in those categories, ranking 17th in EPA/play allowed (-0.012) and 21st in success rate (44.6%).
• According to Sharp Football Analysis, Las Vegas ranks seventh in pressure rate this season (40.3%). Pro Football Reference credits them with the second-highest clip of combined hurries, knockdowns, and sack plays per dropback (33.7%). PFF grades the pass rush as the NFL’s fifth-best, too.
• Perhaps unsurprisingly, Allen ranks third in adjusted EPA/play (0.356) out of 30 qualified quarterbacks. However, Cousins has held his own and ranks eighth (0.228).
• This is a short week for the Bills after playing on Monday Night Football, and it will be their second straight road game out west. This could be a particularly trying turnaround for Buffalo’s defense, as they were out there for 78 plays in Monday’s overtime win over the Rams. For context, the league average is 61.2 plays per game.
• The Raiders are 4-1 against the spread this season, which includes going 2-0 at home.   

Make your Bills vs. Raiders picks on PrizePicks for Sunday’s NFL game.

Bills vs. Raiders Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/18/26

Here are the top Bills vs. Raiders picks to target on Sunday, October 18. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Josh Allen and Ashton Jeanty.

Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Raiders: 20.5 Pass Completions

• Allen has tallied 20 or fewer completions in four of five games this season. Even with his last game going to overtime, he made only 12 completions.
• He averaged 18.1 completions per game in 2024 and 18.8 completions per game last season. He’s at 18.2 per game so far in 2026.
• Buffalo ranks 23rd in plays per game (59.0). This is due in part to their defense having a difficult time getting off the field, as the team is 29th in time of possession percentage (46.1%).
• The offense is 18th in pass rate over expected, per Sharp Football Analysis.
• Buffalo’s top wideout, DJ Moore, has been hampered by a shoulder injury for much of the season. He’s been absent or unable to finish three of the Bills’ five games. Even if he’s able to play, there’s no guarantee he makes it through the whole contest.
• The Raiders are coughing up the fourth-most rushing yards per game (140.6) and second-most rushing yards per attempt (5.2). The Bills could elect to lean on Cook and Allen’s legs to generate much of the offense as they did last week against the Rams. 

Add Josh Allen + Bills to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty vs. Bills: 25.5 Receiving Yards

• Jeanty has been used prominently in the Raiders’ passing game, averaging 6.0 targets, 4.4 receptions, and 43.0 receiving yards per game. He’s exceeded 25 receiving yards in four of his five games.
• His 17.4% target share is the second-best mark on Las Vegas, per SumerSports.
• According to PlayerProfiler, Jeanty ranks fourth at the position in routes run (112) and route participation rate (57.4%) this season. Those marks would be even higher if he wasn’t rested late in last week’s blowout loss to the Patriots, resulting in a season-low 52.6% snap share.
• Against an offensive juggernaut like the Bills, the Raiders might find themselves in a negative game script, which could force them to lean more into the passing game.
• Buffalo has faced the most targets (43) from opposing running backs this season, per Pro Football Reference. That’s contributed to them giving up the second-most receiving yards per game to the position (48.4).
• If Jeanty is in fact getting healthier, that could increase his usage. In Weeks 2 and 3, he surpassed an 80% snap share.

Add Ashton Jeanty + Raiders to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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The Las Vegas Raiders have lost two straight and now find themselves as home underdogs against the Buffalo Bills. Can they rebound against a Buffalo team playing on a short week, or will the Bills get another road win?

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