Best Week 4 NFL Predictions for Patriots-Bills, Packers-Bucs, More

NFL Week 3 delivered plenty of surprises that shook up our future expectations, including the Washington Commanders pulling off a 33-31 upset over the Seattle Seahawks, despite QB Jayden Daniels (elbow) sitting out. The Raiders also improved their record to 3-0 with a 35-27 win over the Saints. They are one of five teams that enter Week 4 undefeated

In a week with plenty of uncertainty, which NFL games stand out for our Week 4 predictions?

Below, we’ll look at Sunday's NFL schedule and break down our best NFL Week 4 predictions, including picks for winners, spreads, over/under, team totals, and more on PrizePicks.

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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction on Spread for NFL Week 4

Time + How to Watch: 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS

The Bills are another undefeated team still in the mix, following their 24-16 home win over the Chargers last week. With new head coach Joe Brady, Bills QB Josh Allen has the offense firing on all cylinders, scoring a league-high 101 points through three games. He has 11 TDs already in three games after posting 39 total TDs last year.

The combination of Allen and Bills RB James Cook III is what continues to lead the Bills to success. According to PFF, Cook leads all running backs in yards per carry (6.0) and explosive runs (12). Last season, he finished second in both categories.

On the injury front, the Bills got good news last week when WR D.J. Moore played through an AC joint injury that forced him to leave their Week 2 matchup with the Lions early. He didn’t seem negatively affected, catching 6 of 10 targets for 67 yards vs. the Chargers.

With his average depth of target of 16.8 yards early in the season, Moore has looked to add a new big-play element to the Bills’ offense. His day will be easier with Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez out with a shoulder injury.

The Patriots may struggle to keep up with the Bills in this matchup offensively. Coming off a 35-6 Week 3 loss to the Jaguars, Patriots QB Drake Maye is reeling. He has 1 TD this season and 6 INTs.

Their offense lacks upside and identity with WR A.J. Brown (ankle) on IR, and Maye's completion rate has dropped from 72.0% last year to 63.8% this season. If Maye doesn’t improve dramatically, this matchup could get out of hand quickly as the Bills play just their second game in their new stadium.

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Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction on Spread for NFL Week 4

Time + How to Watch: 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX

The Packers are coming off a disappointing 35-14 loss to the Falcons on Thursday Night Football. Their running game struggled again, finishing with just 17 rushing yards.

With Josh Jacobs still on the Commissioner's Exempt List, the Pack are last in the NFL, averaging a staggeringly low 48.7 rushing yards per game. The next worst team is the Broncos at 81.0 rushing yards per game.‍

Per RBSDM, the Buccaneers are sixth in rush EPA/play allowed, so don’t expect the Packers to get things going on the ground in this matchup.

The Packers placed WR Jayden Reed (neck) on IR this week, but QB Jordan Love still has plenty of weapons around him. Packers WR Christian Watson is on pace for the most productive season of his career, recording 17 receptions for 284 yards and 4 TDs through three weeks.

Packers WR Matthew Golden has also had a nice sophomore season, with 15 receptions for 253 yards and 1 TD. Another promising stat is that Packers TE Tucker Kraft has logged at least 50 offensive snaps in both of the last two games as he becomes further removed from last season’s torn ACL.

As disappointing as the Packers have been, a key injury to the Buccaneers puts Green Bay in a favorable position to cover the spread on the road. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) is expected to miss three weeks, forcing them to turn things over to undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels — his first career start.

Although he came in as the Bucs were in desperation mode, he did not perform well in relief of Mayfield last week, failing to complete any of his 3 pass attempts and throwing an interception.

Turnovers could remain a problem, given that he threw 19 INTs over 24 games in the last two years at Kansas. Tampa Bay’s offense might struggle mightily without Mayfield, especially considering that they haven't topped 20 points in either of their last two games with Mayfield under-center

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Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction on Spread for NFL Week 4

Time + How to Watch: 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX

The Vikings have leaned on their defense to reach a 3-0 record, allowing just 13.7 points per game. QB Kyler Murray returned from a one-week absence to help Minnesota knock off the Buccaneers 23-16 in Week 3. The former Cardinal will be without his top target this week, though, with Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (ankle) ruled out.

The Vikings’ defense matched up against the Dolphins’ struggling offense makes their Week 4 matchup a potential blowout.

New Dolphins QB Malik Willis hasn’t been able to get much going through the air, throwing for 220 or fewer yards in all three of his games. He has also completed only 57.0% of his passes, while posting 1 passing TD and 2 INTs. As a result, the Dolphins are averaging 12.0 points per game.

Miami’s offense is in even more trouble now that RB De’Von Achane (knee) is out for the season.

Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon II will take over at running back, but neither has made much of an impact in the league. Wright averages 3.9 yards per carry for his career, and Gordon has been even worse at 2.7 yards per carry.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Dolphins were held to single-digit points in this matchup, as the Vikings rank first in defensive EPA/play allowed (-0.20) and second in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.36), per rbsdm.

The Dolphins have also been awful on defense, ranking last in dropback EPA/play allowed, per RBSDM. Opposing quarterbacks have a staggering 80.3% completion rate against this defense, and Miami is still searching for their first sack of the season.

The Dolphins' 9.1 yards allowed per pass attempt is also the second-highest in the league. Combine all of that with this game being played in Minnesota, and the matchup has blowout written all over it.

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With Allen thriving and Maye struggling, the Bills could record a decisive victory over their AFC East foe in Week 4. The absence of Mayfield puts the Buccaneers in a tough spot against the Packers, while the Vikings could dismantle the struggling Dolphins, who could be even in even more dire straits now that Achane is out for the season.

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