The 2026 NCAA Tournament first round continues on Friday with 16 more games and eight more berths in the second round at stake. On Thursday, we had a No. 10 seed, two No. 11 seeds, and a No. 12 seed pull off upsets. Who is next?
Below, we’ll break down why Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s and Cal Baptist vs. Kansas are two potential upset picks for Friday’s late NCAA Tournament games, including spread picks.
Last year's NCAA Tournament was as “chalky” as it gets, but in this year’s first day, underdogs went 11-5 against the spread with six outright upsets.
Who will join High Point, VCU, Texas, Texas A&M, and Saint Louis as upset kings? Where will we find the upsets in Friday’s NCAA Tournament games in the late and final session of the first round?
Make your NCAA Tournament picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on upsets, spreads, and totals!
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Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s: First Round Upset Pick, Spread, Over/Under
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET | TV: CBS
After dominating the Missouri Valley Conference regular season, only to lose in the MVC Tournament in past seasons, the Panthers flipped the script in 2026, finishing sixth in the conference before winning four games in four days to claim the automatic bid.
It may not always be pretty, but the Panthers use a top-25 defense to keep them in games. They held opponents to 62.3 points per game in the MVC Tournament. Northern Iowa hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament in a decade, but the school has won a game in each of its last three appearances.
St. John’s won the Big East regular season crown and the conference tournament for the second consecutive season to earn the East Region's No. 5 seed. The Johnnies won 16 of their final 17 regular-season games before sweeping the Big East Tournament for the second straight year. The lone loss? A 32-point defeat vs. UConn.
Last year, St. John’s entered as a No. 2 seed, winning its first-round game before losing to No. 10 Arkansas in the second round. Excluding Big East play, St. John’s was just 7-4 on the season.
No. 12 Northern Iowa and No. 5 St. John’s square off in an East regional matchup Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.
Get Friday's Updated NCAA Tournament Bracket, Schedule, and TV Channels
Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s Spread, Over/Under for NCAA Tournament
St. John’s enters Thursday’s NCAA Tournament first-round game as 11.5-point favorites, returning a 1.17x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
Northern Iowa is the big underdog, with a 5x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: St. John’s -11.5
- Over/Under: 131.5
- Game Winner Payout: Northern Iowa 5x | St. John’s 1.17x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Why Could Northern Iowa Upset St. John’s in the First Round?
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s NCAA Tournament prediction for Friday, March 20, on PrizePicks.
- Northern Iowa leads the country in defensive scoring, holding opponents to 61.3 points per game.
- The Panthers have won at least one game in each of their last three tournament appearances (2010, 2015, 2016).
- Per KenPom, Northern Iowa is rated 74th in the country, with a defensive rating of 98.3 (24th), sixth among non-power conference schools.
- Northern Iowa is 20-14 against the spread — the best in the Missouri Valley Conference. That includes 5-2 ATS as an underdog, with three outright upsets.
- The Red Storm are 8-10 ATS when favored by 8+ points.
- According to KenPom, St. John’s is rated 17th in the country, with an offensive rating of 120.1 (43rd) and a defensive rating of 94.2 (12th).
- Per ESPN BPI, Northern Iowa has a 15% chance of an outright upset, the third-highest of the No. 12 seeds.
Cal Baptist vs. Kansas: First Round Upset Pick, Spread, Over/Under
Time: 9:45 p.m. ET | TV: CBS
Many Cinderella runs are defined by a star player’s announcement to the world stage. Steph Curry for Davidson comes to mind. Cal Baptist has Dominique Daniels Jr., who averages 23.2 points per game, fifth in the country. His 64 points in two games led the No. 2-seeded Lancers to the WAC title over top-seed Utah Valley.
The Lancers make their first-ever appearance in the NCAA Tournament, winners of 15 of the last 17 games and a non-conference resume that includes a win over Oregon State and close losses to Big 12 schools Colorado and Utah.
Kansas is on the opposite side of the experience ledger, advancing to its 54th NCAA Tournament (third-most all-time.) The No. 4 Jayhawks are in the NCAA Tournament for the 36th consecutive year, which ranks as the longest streak of all time.
The Jayhawks go as future NBA lottery pick Darryn Peterson goes. He’s helped lead Kansas to wins over Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston, but he's also missed 11 games, leading to multiple blowout losses. Kansas finished the season with five losses in the last nine games, and each defeat was by double digits.
No. 13 Cal Baptist and No. 4 Kansas square off in an East regional matchup Friday at 9:45 p.m. ET on CBS.
Cal Baptist vs. Kansas Spread, Over/Under for NCAA Tournament
Kansas enters Friday’s NCAA Tournament first-round game as 13.5-point favorites, returning a 1.08x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
Cal Baptist is the big underdog, with a 7.69x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Kansas -13.5
- Over/Under: 141.5
- Game Winner Payout: Cal Baptist 7.69x | Kansas 1.08x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Why Could Cal Baptist Upset Kansas in the First Round?
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your NCAA Tournament Cal Baptist vs. Kansas NCAA Tournament prediction for Friday, March 20, on PrizePicks.
- Cal Baptist’s Dominique Daniels Jr. has performed well vs. high-major teams, scoring 31 vs. Utah and 25 vs. Colorado. He’s fifth in the country, averaging 23.2 PPG.
- The Lancers hold opponents to 67.6 points per game (33rd).
- The WAC champions are 5-3 against the spread as an underdog, including a win over Oregon State and UC Irvine, plus a cover as a 13-point underdog vs. Colorado.
- Kansas has been extremely inconsistent, with eight of its 10 losses coming by double digits.
- The Jayhawks were upset in this spot last year, losing as a No. 7 seed to Arkansas in the first round. Kansas has failed to make it out of the first weekend in three straight and five of the last six NCAA Tournaments.
- Per KenPom, Kansas is ranked 21st, which is below its current No. 4 seed. Its offense is 55th in the country, among the worst of the power conference schools in the tournament.
Make NCAA Tournament Upset Picks on PrizePicks
Can Northern Iowa continue its late-season run and fit the Cinderella slipper? Can Cal Baptist shock the world in its tourney debut vs. heavyweight Kansas?
The NCAA Tournament Friday late window starts at 6:50 p.m. ET on TNT.
You can make your 2026 NCAA Tournament picks for winners on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money.
Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
