The 2026 NCAA Tournament first round gets underway on Thursday with 64 teams battling to cut down the nets in Indianapolis — and everyone will be on the hunt for the first major tournament upset.
Below, we’ll break down why McNeese State vs. Vanderbilt and High Point vs. Wisconsin are two potential upset picks for Thursday's early NCAA Tournament games, including spread picks.
Last year's NCAA Tournament was as “chalky” as it gets, with only five double-digit seeds winning in the first round of the tournament.
The top four seeds in each region combined to go 16-0 last year, but two No. 12 seeds and a No. 11 seed won outright. Plus, 11 of the 32 underdogs covered the spread in the first round in 2025.
Where will we find the upsets in Thursday’s NCAA Tournament games in the early sessions?
Make your NCAA Tournament picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on upsets, spreads, and totals!
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McNeese State vs. Vanderbilt: First Round Upset Pick, Spread, Over/Under
Time: 1:50 p.m. ET | TV: TruTV
McNeese State pulled off an upset in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, knocking off No. 5 seed Clemson, 69-67. The final score may have shown a two-point differential, but the No. 12-seeded Cowboys led by 24 at one point, dominating the Tigers.
The Cowboys return just as dangerous, if not better, now making their third tournament in a row. They went 28-5 this season, finishing second in the Southland conference, before blowing out top-seeded Stephen F. Austin in the conference title game.
Find Thursday's Full NCAA Tournament Schedule & TV Channels HERE
Vanderbilt showed its potential in the SEC semifinals, blowing out top-seed and defending champion Florida to advance to the SEC Championship game, where they lost to Arkansas.
To get there, the Commodores started 16-0 before finishing the regular season 8-7. But two straight wins over rival Tennessee and then shocking Florida got them the No. 5 seed.
No. 12 McNeese State and No. 5 Vanderbilt square off in a South regional matchup Thursday at 3:15 p.m. ET on TruTV.
McNeese State vs. Vanderbilt Spread, Over/Under for NCAA Tournament
McNeese State enters Thursday’s NCAA Tournament first-round game as 11.5-point underdogs, returning a 5.55x payout ($100 entry pays $555) on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Vanderbilt is the big favorite, with a 1.14x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your college basketball picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Vanderbilt -11.5
- Over/Under: 150.5
- Game Winner Payout: McNeese State 5.55x | Vanderbilt 1.14x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Why Could McNeese State Upset Vanderbilt in the First Round?
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your McNeese State vs. Vanderbilt NCAA Tournament prediction for Thursday, March 19 on PrizePicks – including why Vanderbilt could be on upset alert.
- McNeese State leads the nation in points off turnovers (22.3) and is second in the nation in both turnovers forced (16.9) and steals (10.4) per game.
- McNeese State was also in the top-15 in forcing turnovers in 2025.
- The Cowboys were one of two No. 12 seeds to pull off upsets last year, winning as a 7.5-point underdog to Clemson.
- Larry Johnson, the Southland Freshman of the Year, had one of the more impressive rookie seasons in the country, averaging 17.5 PPG and 5.5 RPG.
- Vanderbilt, while having a good SEC Tournament, also lost seven of the final 15 games of the regular season
- The Commodores are 5-7 ATS this season as a favorite of 10+, including not covering in their last three games with a double-digit spread.
- McNeese has more experience here, returning to the NCAA Tournament for the third straight year, while Vandy hasn't been since 2017 and hasn't won a tourney game since 2012.
- Per ESPN BPI, McNeese State has a 19 percent chance of an outright upset, the second highest of the No. 12 seeds.
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High Point vs. Wisconsin Upset Pick, Spread, Over/Under for First Round
High Point was predicted to win the Big South this season and backed that up, winning the regular-season title by two games, then sweeping the Big South tournament to advance to the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year.
The run includes 14 straight wins and wins in 22 of the past 23 games. As a No. 13 seed last year, the Panthers lost by 12 to No. 4 Purdue.
Wisconsin represents a team capable of making a deep run, as they have wins over Michigan, Illinois, and Michigan State, all of which are top-three seeds.
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But they're also a swingy team capable of losing in the first round with seven losses by double-digit points.
The Badgers finished with 24 wins and earned a No. 5 seed in the Big Ten tourney, where they beat Washington and Illinois, before losing to Michigan in the semifinals.
No. 12 High Point and No. 5 Wisconsin square off in a South regional matchup Thursday at 1:50 p.m. ET on TBS.
High Point vs. Wisconsin Spread, Over/Under for NCAA Tournament
High Point enters Thursday’s NCAA Tournament first-round game as 9.5-point underdogs, returning a 4.54x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they pull off an outright upset.
Wisconsin is the big favorite, with a battle-tested Big Ten resume. The Badgers have a 1.2x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Wisconsin -9.5
- Over/Under: 162.5
- Game Winner Payout: High Point 4.54x | Wisconsin 1.2x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Why Could High Point Upset Wisconsin in the First Round?
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your High Point vs. Wisconsin NCAA Tournament first-round prediction for Thursday, March 19 on PrizePicks – including why Wisconsin could be on upset alert.
- High Point led the Big South conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency and had the 67th-ranked offense per KenPom.
- The Panthers average 90 points per game, third best in the country.
- High Point leads the nation in steals, forcing 10.9 a game, and the Panthers are third in turnovers forced at 16.4.
- Per KenPom, Wisconsin’s defense is rated 51st in the nation, among the lowest of the power schools and behind other one-bid conference tournament teams, McNeese State, and Cal Baptist.
- When the Badgers are off, they are off. Wisconsin has lost by margins of 18, 30, 16, 17, and 14 points this season.
- Wisconsin has been a favorite of 9+ points in 10 games this season, going 5-5 against the spread.
- Per ESPN BPI, High Point has a 24 percent chance of an outright upset, the highest of the No. 12 seeds.
Make NCAA Tournament Upset Picks on PrizePicks
Can McNeese State fit the Cinderella slipper on in back-to-back years and force Vanderbilt into turnovers? Will High Point keep its high-flying offense going in its second straight NCAA Tournament appearance?
The NCAA Tournament early window starts at 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS, kicking off the first round of the tourney.
You can make your 2026 NCAA Tournament picks for winners on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money.
Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
