Bears vs. Panthers Prediction, Spread, NFL Week 1 Picks – Sunday, September 13

The 2026 NFL season is finally upon us, and we are greeted with a fun Week 1 matchup with the Chicago Bears traveling to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, September 13, at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Both teams are coming off playoff appearances in 2025, with Chicago winning the NFC North at 11-5 and Carolina capturing the NFC South despite an 8-9 record. Chicago enters the matchup as a 2.5-point road favorite with the over/under sitting at 46.5 points on PrizePicks.

Below, we’ll break down our Bears vs. Panthers prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game in Week 1, including the spread for PrizePicks.

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Bears vs. Panthers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

Year 1 for HC Ben Johnson and his Bears was a resounding success. Chicago went 11-6 and won the NFC North before defeating the Packers in the Wild Card round.

The Bears' offense improved dramatically under Johnson, going from a unit that ranked 27th in EPA/play in 2024 to ninth in 2025, per RBSDM. Much of that improvement came from QB Caleb Williams. The former No. 1 overall pick completed 58.1% of his passes for 3,942 yards, 27 TDs, and only 7 INTs while also rushing for 388 yards.

Williams became much more effective throwing downfield. He completed 31 of 73 deep passes after completing just 20 of 75 in his rookie season, while his deep-ball accuracy improved from 27.4% to 46.7%.

Chicago's offensive line was another major reason for the improvement. The Bears finished in the top 10 in both pass-blocking and run-blocking grades last season, while their offense ranked fourth in EPA/rush.

The Panthers' defense, despite still being bad, improved considerably in 2025, moving from dead last in EPA/play allowed to 23rd last season.

Carolina's defense also allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt (24th), along with a 47.9% dropback success rate allowed (20th).

Offensively, QB Bryce Young improved in 2025 but enters a true prove-it season in 2026. WR Tetairoa McMillan emerged as a legitimate No. 1 option while recording 1,014 receiving yards and 7 TDs as a rookie.

Chicago won the most recent meeting between these teams 36-10 in 2024, but Sunday's game is a very different matchup, with both teams coming off division-winning playoff seasons.

Bears vs. Panthers Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

Chicago enters Sunday's game as a 2.5-point road favorite against Carolina via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for Bears vs. Panthers on PrizePicks.

Make your Bears vs. Panthers prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Bears vs. Panthers Prediction on Spread for Week 1 – 9/13/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers prediction on the spread for Sunday, September 13.

• The Bears have the tools and matchup to generate explosives on offense and pressure on defense against the Panthers.
• Chicago's OL ranked in the top 10 in pass-blocking grade last season, which can afford Caleb Williams the time to pick apart this weak secondary.
• The Panthers generated only a 16.5% pressure rate in 2025, second-lowest in the NFL.
• That inability to generate pressure is a dangerous proposition against a Bears offense that ranked in the top 10 in EPA/pass in 2025.
• As mentioned, the Panthers struggled to stop explosives through the air last season, as they allowed 7.2 YPA (21st).
• Defensively, I am also bullish on the Bears, especially on generating pressure against a Panthers OL that is down both starting tackles.
• This pressure could spell disaster for QB Bryce Young, who ranked 27th in passing grade among qualified QBs in 2025.

Lock in your Bears vs. Panthers prediction on PrizePicks before Sunday’s NFL game.

Bears vs. Panthers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/13/26

Here are the top Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, September 13. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Caleb Williams and Bryce Young.

Bears QB Caleb Williams vs. Panthers: 228.5 Pass Yards

• For many of the reasons mentioned above, Williams could be in a good spot to clear this projection since Carolina's biggest defensive weakness from 2025 was its inability to generate consistent pressure.
• The Panthers generated next to no pressure with the third-fewest sacks in the league (30). 
• When Williams has time, he has demonstrated the ability to attack vertically. He averaged 8.5 air yards per attempt in 2025 and completed 31 of 73 deep passes.
• The Panthers' defense ranked 24th in EPA/pass in 2024 (0.07).
• With the neutral projected game script of this matchup, he should have no problem with passing volume. He had 31+ passing attempts in 11 of his final 12 games last year.

Add Caleb Williams to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Panthers QB Bryce Young vs. Bears: 207.5 Pass Yards

• Despite some pressure concerns, Bryce Young may have success against a potentially overrated Chicago pass defense.
• The Bears pass defense cratered towards the end of 2025, allowing the 13th-most yards per attempt, ninth-most passing TDs, and 10th-highest passing success rate from Week 12 to Week 18.
• The Panthers' best weapon (and arguably best player) is No. 1 receiver, Tet McMillan. The 6-foot-5 receiver topped 1,000 yards as a rookie, giving Young a big target capable of turning intermediate and downfield throws into chunk gains.
• Young also showed the ability to attack vertically in 2025. His 9.1 average air yards ranked well above his 2024 mark.
• The Bears defense allowed 227.2 YPG through the air last season and gave up the eighth-highest completion percentage (66.6%) in the league.
• The game script may also be in Young’s favor today. Chicago is favored by 2.5 points, meaning Carolina could find itself playing from behind and become more aggressive through the air.

Add Bryce Young to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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It’s a glorious day in America with the first NFL Sunday of the year.

Chicago enters 2026 with expectations of another NFC North title after making major strides under Ben Johnson in 2025. Carolina also made the playoffs last season, but Sunday's game will provide an early test of whether Bryce Young and the Panthers' offense can take another step.

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Bears vs. Panthers pick on PrizePicks Team Picks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NFL board, so you can make predictions on yards, touchdowns, and more! Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.

With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available on PrizePicks.

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into 2026.