Bears vs. Packers Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks – Sunday, October 11

In Week 5, the Chicago Bears (3-1) will hit the road to take on the Green Bay Packers (2-2) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 11. The Bears come in as 1.5-point road favorites, and they'd return a 1.78x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

The Bears have now won two straight games with their backup QBs, most recently getting a 23-12 victory over the New York Jets. They’ll once again be without starter Caleb Williams on Sunday, so QB Tyson Bagent will get the nod here.

Green Bay is fresh off a 17-14 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, putting the club back at .500. Both of Pack's 2026 wins have come by 3 points, whereas their two losses were by multiple scores. Who comes out on top in this classic NFC North rivalry?   

Below, we’ll break down our Bears vs. Packers prediction and picks for NFL Week 5, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Bears vs. Packers prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Bears vs. Packers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 11

The Bears enter Sunday’s game as 1.5-point road favorites against the Packers, returning a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $178 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Bears vs. Packers game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Bears vs. Packers prediction on the spread, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

Over the last two weeks sans Williams, backups Bagent and Case Keenum have held down the fort nicely, averaging the league’s 10th-best EPA/play (0.117) and second-best success rate (54.4%), per RBSDM.

While the offense has yet to come anywhere close to its 59-point outburst in Week 1, it's averaged a solid 25 points these past two games.

With Bagent running the show in Week 4 against the Jets, he completed 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards and 1 INT. The real story was Chicago’s run game, which produced a whopping 232 rushing yards.

RB Kyle Monangai racked up 146 yards and 2 TDs off 30 carries, while RB D’Andre Swift added 58 yards on 15 attempts. Swift is typically the lead back, but he was benched following a fumble, leading to Monangai’s big day. 

This time around, Swift could be in for a massive role against the Packers, as Monangai has been ruled out with a toe injury.

Chicago’s defense has been a strength so far, too, allowing the fourth-fewest PPG (16.3) and third-fewest yards per game (282.3). That's also supported by ranking sixth in DVOA, per FTN.

Meanwhile, the Packers have struggled on offense, ranking 28th in PPG (18.3) and 20th in YPG (307.3). In contrast to the Bears, the biggest issue has been their putrid running game without RB Josh Jacobs.

Green Bay is averaging a league-low 58.0 rushing YPG, and it's second-to-last in yards per attempt (3.2). The Packers are one of just two teams to have no rushing TDs through four weeks. 

Defensively, the Packers are 14th in yards allowed per game (324.3) but sit 23rd in per-game scoring (26.3). Advanced metrics aren’t particularly kind to Green Bay’s D, either, as the group is 24th in both EPA/play allowed (0.062) and DVOA.

The Packers also just lost LB Edgerrin Cooper, who suffered a torn Achilles last week.  

Bears vs. Packers Prediction on Spread – 10/11/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Bears vs. Packers prediction on the spread for Sunday, October 11.

• Chicago leads the league in rush attempts per game (39.8) and rushing YPG (196.3). It's generally been efficient, too, ranking fourth in yards per carry (4.9).
• The Packers have given up the fifth-most rushing YPG (139.3). Their defense ranks 25th in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.039) and 23rd in rush success rate (42.7%). Green Bay’s D is also 25th in run stop win rate (27%), per ESPN.
• The Bears’ defense is excellent against the pass so far, ranking second in both dropback EPA/play allowed (-0.096) and dropback success rate (39.3%).
• Among 29 qualified QBs, Jordan Love ranks just 18th in adjusted EPA/play (0.063) and 27th in completion percentage over expected (-7.0).
• Green Bay’s offensive line sits dead last in pass block win rate (22%). PFF also gives its pass blocking the league’s worst grade. 
• Chicago’s defense is much weaker against the run, ranking 27th in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.019). However, Green Bay is dead last in rush EPA/play (-0.406) by a wide margin on offense.  

Make your Bears vs. Packers picks on PrizePicks for Sunday’s NFL game.

Bears vs. Packers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/11/26

Here are the top Bears vs. Packers picks to target on Sunday, October 11. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Luther Burden and Matthew Golden.

Bears WR Luther Burden vs. Packers: 48.5 Rec Yards

• Although Burden was third on the Bears in targets (6) last week, he leads the team with a 24.0% target share this season, per SumerSports.
• He has a 29.0% first-read target share, per PlayerProfiler, which also leads Chicago.
• The wideout is averaging a rock-solid 2.01 yards per route run.
• In four games, Burden has tallied 63, 32, 61, and 63 receiving yards, respectively. In the lone week he failed to clear 60 yards, the entire offense struggled in a poor weather game against an elite Minnesota Vikings defense.
• While the Packers haven’t allowed a ton of passing yards, that's been more due to facing the eighth-fewest pass attempts per game (29.3). They rank 24th in dropback EPA/play allowed (0.143).

Add Luther Burden + Bears to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Packers WR Matthew Golden vs. Bears: 58.5 Rec Yards

• Golden is averaging 68.5 receiving YPG and leads the Packers with a 24.7% target share. He has 37 targets through four weeks, which places him 11th in the NFL.
• This is a concentrated target tree between Golden, WR Christian Watson (21.3% target share), and TE Tucker Kraft (16.0% target share). Beyond those three, no active player on the Packers has a mark above 9.0%.
• Although Golden is coming off a down game, he saw season highs in snap share (85.5%) and route participation rate (86.7%) in Week 4.
• This could be a tough matchup for Green Bay’s passing attack, but it still throws at the league’s highest clip (68.9%) due to the poor run game. Love is averaging the sixth most pass attempts per game (38.5).

Add Matthew Golden + Packers to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Make Bears vs. Packers Picks on PrizePicks

The Chicago Bears are slight favorites over the Green Bay Packers despite being on the road. Can the Bears get the win against their bitter division rivals at Lambeau Field? 

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Bears vs. Packers picks on PrizePicks now for Week 5 and earn real money if you're right.

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